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94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

thetimes.co.uk

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Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#81
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pushing for near universal vaccination isn’t at odds with wanting herd immunity. Quite the opposite.

I'm saying that the parent's comment about pushing for herd immunity through both means is not exactly true. We are moving towards herd immunity by both methods unintentionally, but the only method being pushed is vaccination. So much so, that antibodies derived from infection are not even being counted, but rather those persons are being told they need the vaccine anyways. It's a bit like measuring outputs rather th…

The vaccine results in more robust immunity.[1] That is an outcome.

[1]: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2103825?query=TOC

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#82
post #73
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t that what is happening? I was just in the US for a couple weeks (Portland, OR) and rules were minimal and optional everywhere. Not the kind of thing that would drive mental health issues, as best I could tell.

That can't possibly be right, according to Fox News, Portland, OR is an authoritarian communist hellhole. Just glad you got out alive.

It's a communist hellhole, but it's not authoritarian.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#83
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know three people who got it twice and another who is a friend of a friend. Only one of those is known to be immunocompromised. Two of those got it the second time after also being vaccinated. I do wonder though if some of the second cases aren't people going in with the flu and having some covid fragments in their nose.

> I do wonder though if some of the second cases aren't people going in with the flu and having some covid fragments in their nose. This is why using PCR tests cranked up to absurd cycle counts isn't the best way to determine _infection_.

though nations like Australia that did flu checks last year estimated it was almost absent, and of those that tested positive very small percentages were vaccinated, so if its the flu, the covid vaccine is the best flu vaccine ever.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#84
post #4

I am stunned so few governments publish such "in the wild" data. The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected, not to count "confirmed" cases. For instance, it seems only 8.8% is confirmed (or 88k out of 1 million) [1] . Add that to the 69% vaccinated with at least one dose [2], and you get 77.8% accounted for, which is less than the 95% quoted. [1] - https…

> The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected Can anyone provide links to recent peer-reviewed primary sources that estimate the number of individuals who have been infected in the U.S.? If ~70% of people are asymptomatic, and we assume just about everyone has been exposed to and infected by the virus - haven't we already achieved herd immunity in the U.S.…

The CDC estimates that 36% of Americans have been infected. Of those, only 15% were completely asymptomatic but most had mild symptoms.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#85
Useful overview for the UK.[1] This is the Financial Times chart of cases and deaths by state and country, updated daily since early 2020. Things to notice:

* UK cases spike. They go from 3 cases per 100K people in May to 71 cases per 100K in mid-July. That's the increased R0 of the Delta variant in action. Now they're declining rapidly, down to 39 cases per 100K people. Keep watching that graph; that shows herd immunity starting to take effect.

* US cases are way up, too, but started later than in the UK. The US curve is still going up, following the UK curve, but about a month behind. That's why medical authorities are saying the next two months will be really bad in the US.

* The US has about the same case rate as Tunisia, but a far lower death rate. Without good medical care, this is a killer disease.

[1] https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&are...

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#86
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected Can anyone provide links to recent peer-reviewed primary sources that estimate the number of individuals who have been infected in the U.S.? If ~70% of people are asymptomatic, and we assume just about everyone has been exposed to and infected by the virus - haven't we already achieved herd immunity in the U.S.…

If we assume everyone has been infected? Why would we assume that? The estimates I've seen (including asymptomatic) are around 1/3 infected. The source you cited is from 2020, so it doesn't tell us much about today.

Yup good catch about the old source, I removed that from my comment.

The source provided by animats puts the seroprevalence at 21.6% for the U.S. I think that should be a lower bound of the number of individuals who have been infected, given antibody levels wane over time (even though immunity does not necessarily wane).

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here are some primary sources which support the fact that infection leads to robust and durable immunity. [1] SARS-CoV-2 infection induces long-lived bone marrow plasma cells in humans https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf [2] Necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in previously infected individuals https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v...

N=1, but I now know many people who have been vaccinated that have since been infected, where as up until recently I knew 2 people who got it this entire time (I'm in SF). One of these new people is a co-worker who got covid last year, then got Pfizer vaccinated, then got it again and almost was hospitalized. He's 29 and fit, and as far as I know, is not immunocompromised. All the data shows that vaccination provides…

> I don't believe herd immunity is any more possible than herd immunity with the flu or common cold.

This seems to me to be a very strange thing to say.

We know precisely what the pattern is for herd immunity in the case of a coronavirus, because four of them cause what you are calling a "common cold". It's endemic equilibrium. To my knowledge, there is no dispute among experts on this point.

So to say that we can't achieve herd immunity because of its similarity to a virus against which we are indeed herd immune is, at best, begging the question.

If you have six minutes, this is a very acute description of the endemic equilibrium effect of herd immunity: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsmDJYhteQs

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The overwhelming majority of children in the US receive the MMR jab either due to public school pressure or immigration policy. It is unlikely that COVID vaccination will ever reach the same levels, despite sufficient abundance of vaccine supply to play vaccine diplomacy around the world. Meanwhile we have Australia deploying the military to enforce acute lockdowns because they failed to secure enough vaccines early…

I don't know, at the rate we're going it feels like they'll require 5 year olds to have the Covid vaccines to attend public school after finishing a five month, phase I trial in 3,000 kids.

The real answer is that schools probably should not open at all. They are basically ideal breeding grounds for the virus - kids are gross and spread everything to begin with, plus you have 30 kids sitting in close proximity, communal lunch-halls, crowded hallways, overcrowded bus transportation... and in higher grades you shuffle the contact groups an additional 7x per day as people change classes. It is literally the absolute ideal environment that you would design if you wanted to breed the disease - big groups, shuffled frequently, with no social distancing and kids who probably couldn't execute social distancing anyway.

The short answer is that schools probably should not be open at all. Even with the vaccine, you are talking about a disease that (even in mild cases) is known to cause subtle long-term damage to organs, it's really not a good idea to tempt fate in a growing kid, particularly with the potential for multiple recurring infections over time from different strains.

If you did want to re-open schools safely, you would have to require vaccinations, you would also have to restructure significant parts of the school "experience" - like having classes and bus transportation be significantly smaller and more spaced out, having class groups stay fixed and having teachers move between class groups rather than vice versa, etc. And all of that would be far more expensive - we would need more teachers, more classrooms, more busses, etc.

The reality is we're just throwing kids under the bus to die, because it would be expensive and inconvenient to do it right, and we can't not reopen schools because a lot of people depend on it as daycare and because a lot of people have decided we're "back to normal" regardless of what happens with future variants. Just like people have decided that we're done with masks and they're not putting them back on ever again, regardless of what the CDC says.

Open for business baby.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#89

This probably explains the previously mysterious drop in Delta cases in the UK. In the U.S. why shouldn't we just shoot for herd immunity now? Not sure how effective restrictions and mandates will be in slowing things down and the costs to mental health and quality of life are so high.

The US doesn't have a choice to shoot for herd immunity because the remaining willfully unvaccinated population is both anti-mask and anti-vax. EDIT: Guess I worded that badly. What I mean is: choosing herd immunity is inevitable, so there is no choice. It will happen. EDIT2: It didn't occur to me that there is a huge risk if more deadly mutations happen faster than herd immunity.

[deleted]

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected Can anyone provide links to recent peer-reviewed primary sources that estimate the number of individuals who have been infected in the U.S.? If ~70% of people are asymptomatic, and we assume just about everyone has been exposed to and infected by the virus - haven't we already achieved herd immunity in the U.S.…

The fact that more people are in the hospital in Florida right now than at any time in the last two years would seem to disprove any speculation of here immunity.

Can we stop with this please?

> The fact that more people are in the hospital in Florida right now than at any time in the last two years

THIS IS NOT TRUE.

The metric you are describing is hospital census, which is _not_ at an all-time high right now.

What is at an all time high? The percentage of people in the hospital who have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, regardless of their presentation.

The roundtable just yesterday confirmed that there are hospitals which have near 100% positivity, despite 80% presenting for things unrelated to a respiratory infection.

Some people are there for blunt trauma or routine surgery, but have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.

I just don't understand the point of constantly misrepresenting this metric. It muddies the waters of actual concerns about the spread of the virus by making it seem like those are are concerned are dishonest.

Stop it.

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