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94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

thetimes.co.uk

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Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#51

Post by bena »

ummonk wrote: post #29
dontreact wrote: post #3

This probably explains the previously mysterious drop in Delta cases in the UK. In the U.S. why shouldn't we just shoot for herd immunity now? Not sure how effective restrictions and mandates will be in slowing things down and the costs to mental health and quality of life are so high.

We seem to be trying to "flatten the curve" and "slow the spread" to needlessly take extra long to get to the same final place - natural herd immunity.

Come on. It's because when we were trying to flatten the curve, there were far too many people who denied it was anything more serious than the flu and didn't take any precautions.

Same with slowing the spread. People did not listen.

Because they were "free critical thinkers who can reach their own conclusions thank you very much". And they were wrong. And now they've put us here.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#52

Post by criticaltinker »

stevesimmons wrote: post #27

The original ONS (Office for National Statistics) analysis is here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... Much more detail, more rigorous, primary source, and no pay wall. (@dang: maybe use this as the post's URL?)

Great source and includes the downloadable data, thanks for sharing.

> While antibody positivity in the oldest age groups remains high, it decreased slightly in some regions and countries. This means that some people in these groups did not have enough antibodies to be detected in the test, not that they do not have any immune protection against the virus.

I found that sentence intriguing, here is the link they recommend for more information to explain why people might still have immune protection even with low (undetectable) levels of antibodies [1].

[1] https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/04/28/antibodies-and-immunity-h...

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#53

Post by logifail »

Tarsul wrote: post #32

this data arguably shows that the choice really is between vaccination (+possibly weak infection) and infection. We can't hide from the virus. This doesn't mean that the only choice is opening up everything, but eventually... yes. Concious governments should first try to get more people vaccinated. Long covid is too frequent, otherwise. (400k have it in UK, see: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/01/almost-4000…

> Long covid is too frequent, otherwise.

Q: Is there something about this that we need to worry about particularly?

I ask in the context of having had the Epstein-Barr virus in my late 30s and having been essentially knocked completely flat by it for the best part of a month, and not having recovered to full fitness for several months more.

When I was a child, my Dad had shingles (apparently for the first time) in his late 40s, he was really quite poorly, that also took him months to get over.

Endemic viruses already do this stuff, if you've even had a proper dose of seasonal flu you'll know what I'm taking about.

Is there a reason (and non-anecdotal data...) to specifically worry about the long-term effects of C19 _more_ than all the other endemic viruses?

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#54

Post by carbocation »

cjlars wrote: post #40
Animats wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CDC publishes that data.[1][2] It runs 6 weeks behind, though. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/abou... [2] https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab

Are these numbers comparable to OP? It's hard to reconcile that FL is at 24%, or NY at 13% w/ antibodies vs the headline.

Your implication is correct that the CDC chart is mostly incomparable to the OP. The chart tries to combine incomparable data, which annoyingly requires interpretation of the legend to understand correctly.

The circles indicate nucleocapsid (i.e., infection only) while the squares indicate spike (i.e., infection or vaccination).

So, Puerto Rico is 70% infected and/or vaccinated (a square). Whereas NY is 13% infected (a circle).

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#55

Post by gpm »

cjlars wrote: post #40
Animats wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CDC publishes that data.[1][2] It runs 6 weeks behind, though. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/abou... [2] https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab

Are these numbers comparable to OP? It's hard to reconcile that FL is at 24%, or NY at 13% w/ antibodies vs the headline.

Note that the recent numbers in the CDC chart all seem to be measuring antibodies that only appear from infection, not vaccination (indicated by a circle instead of a square in the chart), while the numbers from the article appear to be measuring antibodies that appear from either infection or vaccination, so they are not directly comparable.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#56

Post by giantg2 »

tshaddox wrote: post #38
giantg2 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Officially and unofficially they are pushing everyone to the vaccine. People who have antibodies are still getting fired from their jobs because they didn't take the vaccine. There's even talk of requiring the vaccine for some schools, regardless of prior infection status. So the US is not shooting for herd immunity through either means, but only through vaccination. Even federal employees are being requi…

Pushing for near universal vaccination isn’t at odds with wanting herd immunity. Quite the opposite.

I'm saying that the parent's comment about pushing for herd immunity through both means is not exactly true. We are moving towards herd immunity by both methods unintentionally, but the only method being pushed is vaccination. So much so, that antibodies derived from infection are not even being counted, but rather those persons are being told they need the vaccine anyways.

It's a bit like measuring outputs rather than outcomes.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#57

Post by VBprogrammer »

bena wrote: post #42
loceng wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaccine isn't necessarily easy for everyone, and catching COVID isn't necessarily hard for everyone; and underlying health condition seems to be primary determinant of that, not vaccination status. Edit to add: feel good about downvoting critical thinking, ideologues.

That seems like the stupidest lottery to enter into however. Even people without an "underlying health condition" have died. And even those who haven't died are experiencing long term complications from having had COVID. So you can either hope you don't have a hard time with COVID if you catch it. Or you can drastically reduce your chances of having a hard time and of catching it all by just taking a couple minutes o…

I have two people on my team who are both in their mid-20s. Both have had covid in the last couple of weeks, one hadn't had his vaccine the other only his first dose. The one without ended up in hospital for 2 weeks and was very nearly intubated. The other had a mild cough and has happily worked through it. I know which one I'd pick.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#58

Post by AndrewBissell »

threatofrain wrote: post #34
akiselev wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Measles is one of the most infectious pathogens known to man with an R0 between 10 and 15. Even with the delta variant, COVID doesn't seem as transmissible so the threshold should be closer to 80 than 95.

The overwhelming majority of children in the US receive the MMR jab either due to public school pressure or immigration policy. It is unlikely that COVID vaccination will ever reach the same levels, despite sufficient abundance of vaccine supply to play vaccine diplomacy around the world. Meanwhile we have Australia deploying the military to enforce acute lockdowns because they failed to secure enough vaccines early…

I don't know, at the rate we're going it feels like they'll require 5 year olds to have the Covid vaccines to attend public school after finishing a five month, phase I trial in 3,000 kids.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#59

Post by jampekka »

wusher wrote: post #11
SavantIdiot wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US doesn't have a choice to shoot for herd immunity because the remaining willfully unvaccinated population is both anti-mask and anti-vax. EDIT: Guess I worded that badly. What I mean is: choosing herd immunity is inevitable, so there is no choice. It will happen. EDIT2: It didn't occur to me that there is a huge risk if more deadly mutations happen faster than herd immunity.

Herd immunity can also be achieved by the anti-vax people catching the virus. They can develop immunity by being sick instead of getting a shot.

Or catching the virus and being more or less asymptomatic.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#60

Post by Animats »

akiselev wrote: post #23
iamtheworstdev wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's unachievable in the US. Not enough people willing to get vaccinated. The bar for herd immunity is predicted at 80% or higher if covid keeps mutating to become more infectious. Measles had a 95% herd immunity threshold so who knows where covid could finally land.

Measles is one of the most infectious pathogens known to man with an R0 between 10 and 15. Even with the delta variant, COVID doesn't seem as transmissible so the threshold should be closer to 80 than 95.

The delta variant of coronavirus seems to have a R0 in the 8-10 range. That's why the case counts are rising so fast now.
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