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94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

thetimes.co.uk

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Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#41

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

IfOnlyYouKnew wrote: post #35
criticaltinker wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected Can anyone provide links to recent peer-reviewed primary sources that estimate the number of individuals who have been infected in the U.S.? If ~70% of people are asymptomatic, and we assume just about everyone has been exposed to and infected by the virus - haven't we already achieved herd immunity in the U.S.…

The fact that more people are in the hospital in Florida right now than at any time in the last two years would seem to disprove any speculation of here immunity.

How many have been infected twice?

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#42

Post by bena »

loceng wrote: post #25
rowland66 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is absolutely shooting for herd immunity now. Its just a question of how individual members of the herd want to achieve their immunity. They can take the easy way (vaccination) or the hard way (get Covid).

Vaccine isn't necessarily easy for everyone, and catching COVID isn't necessarily hard for everyone; and underlying health condition seems to be primary determinant of that, not vaccination status. Edit to add: feel good about downvoting critical thinking, ideologues.

That seems like the stupidest lottery to enter into however.

Even people without an "underlying health condition" have died. And even those who haven't died are experiencing long term complications from having had COVID.

So you can either hope you don't have a hard time with COVID if you catch it. Or you can drastically reduce your chances of having a hard time and of catching it all by just taking a couple minutes out of your day to get vaccinated.

Sorry, while I do like to gamble in general, if the penalties include death and/or permanent disability, I'm going with the option that makes that less likely. Which is the vaccine.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#43

Post by flavius29663 »

rowland66 wrote: post #15
dontreact wrote: post #3

This probably explains the previously mysterious drop in Delta cases in the UK. In the U.S. why shouldn't we just shoot for herd immunity now? Not sure how effective restrictions and mandates will be in slowing things down and the costs to mental health and quality of life are so high.

The US is absolutely shooting for herd immunity now. Its just a question of how individual members of the herd want to achieve their immunity. They can take the easy way (vaccination) or the hard way (get Covid).

far from it https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#44

Post by giantg2 »

iamtheworstdev wrote: post #17
dontreact wrote: post #3

This probably explains the previously mysterious drop in Delta cases in the UK. In the U.S. why shouldn't we just shoot for herd immunity now? Not sure how effective restrictions and mandates will be in slowing things down and the costs to mental health and quality of life are so high.

It's unachievable in the US. Not enough people willing to get vaccinated. The bar for herd immunity is predicted at 80% or higher if covid keeps mutating to become more infectious. Measles had a 95% herd immunity threshold so who knows where covid could finally land.

So far 55% or so have been fully vaccinated. 83 million, or 25% of the population, is estimated by the CDC to have been infected. I would guess we are getting fairly close to 70%, but it's hard to say what the overlap between those two numbers is. If it's really as contagious as they say, then it's only a matter of time before we hit 80%. The issue will then be the distribution by location and how long the protection lasts.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#46

Post by jampekka »

bagels wrote: post #28
criticaltinker wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected Can anyone provide links to recent peer-reviewed primary sources that estimate the number of individuals who have been infected in the U.S.? If ~70% of people are asymptomatic, and we assume just about everyone has been exposed to and infected by the virus - haven't we already achieved herd immunity in the U.S.…

This assumes infection leads to immunity. It doesn't seem to be clear that this is true.

It's the default assumption given practically every other known virus, and is the core assumption of all epidemiological modeling. Somehow all what is known from epidemiology and virology has been thrown out of the window during COVID. If SARS-CoV-2 is somehow involved the sky is falling on us on any moment unless otherwise proven. Bizarre.

Don't know if they have a part in this, but at least it's extremely profitable for pharma to assume there's no immunity but what they provide.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#47

Post by giantg2 »

threatofrain wrote: post #34
akiselev wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Measles is one of the most infectious pathogens known to man with an R0 between 10 and 15. Even with the delta variant, COVID doesn't seem as transmissible so the threshold should be closer to 80 than 95.

The overwhelming majority of children in the US receive the MMR jab either due to public school pressure or immigration policy. It is unlikely that COVID vaccination will ever reach the same levels, despite sufficient abundance of vaccine supply to play vaccine diplomacy around the world. Meanwhile we have Australia deploying the military to enforce acute lockdowns because they failed to secure enough vaccines early…

They are talking about mandatory vaccinations for some schools.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#48

Post by galangalalgol »

criticaltinker wrote: post #33
bagels wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This assumes infection leads to immunity. It doesn't seem to be clear that this is true.

Here are some primary sources which support the fact that infection leads to robust and durable immunity. [1] SARS-CoV-2 infection induces long-lived bone marrow plasma cells in humans https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf [2] Necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in previously infected individuals https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v...

I know three people who got it twice and another who is a friend of a friend. Only one of those is known to be immunocompromised. Two of those got it the second time after also being vaccinated. I do wonder though if some of the second cases aren't people going in with the flu and having some covid fragments in their nose.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#49

Post by xienze »

loceng wrote: post #25
rowland66 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is absolutely shooting for herd immunity now. Its just a question of how individual members of the herd want to achieve their immunity. They can take the easy way (vaccination) or the hard way (get Covid).

Vaccine isn't necessarily easy for everyone, and catching COVID isn't necessarily hard for everyone; and underlying health condition seems to be primary determinant of that, not vaccination status. Edit to add: feel good about downvoting critical thinking, ideologues.

> Vaccine isn't necessarily easy for everyone, and catching COVID isn't necessarily hard for everyone

There seems to be this prevailing belief that Covid infection == near certain death, when that's just not the case, but try explaining that...

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#50

Post by jampekka »

tshaddox wrote: post #38
giantg2 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Officially and unofficially they are pushing everyone to the vaccine. People who have antibodies are still getting fired from their jobs because they didn't take the vaccine. There's even talk of requiring the vaccine for some schools, regardless of prior infection status. So the US is not shooting for herd immunity through either means, but only through vaccination. Even federal employees are being requi…

Pushing for near universal vaccination isn’t at odds with wanting herd immunity. Quite the opposite.

Pushing for near universal vaccination isn't at odds with wanting to maximize pharma profits. Quite the opposite.
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