I’m an ICU Doctor and I Can't Believe What Unvaccinated Patients Are Saying

I agree that event is concerning.

But it's also a small sample size and there could be many reasons why, in that group, the numbers came out the way they did, including natural clustering.

That would also explain the OPs anecdote as it's very possible an individual hospital is seeing more hospitalizations among the vaccinated just due to the vagaries of statistics. That's why large sample sizes and careful analysis are so important when coming to these conclusions.

But we have substantially more data from Canada and the UK and so far that data shows that the vaccines are effective versus Delta.

Hospitalizations don't drop off anywhere near as fast as deaths do. About every 8 years younger halves the death rate, about every 15 years younger halves the hospitalization rate.

And delta has a hospitalization rate which is across the board twice the rate of alpha (with age/sex/deprivation/comorbidity-matched patients).

The virus is also not done mutating and is facing evolutionary pressure to become more transmissible, which is mostly through the mechanism of increased viral loads which has the knock-on effect of increasing virulence and hospitalization/death rates. In the short term it isn't getting any better and its only getting worse (turns out viruses don't always naturally evolve to become less virulent, and epidemiologists have known that since the 90s).

The hospitalization rate for old D614G variant in 20 year olds was 1%, that should be up to 2% now with delta. The hospitalization rate of vaccination in 20 year olds is probably too low to be measurable. If you're worried about 1-in-10,000 or worse vaccine side effects you should be much more worried about the virus landing you in the hospital (even though it probably won't kill you).

Vaccines also don't cause outbreaks of side effects months or years later. The vaccine is cleared in a few days, all that remains is the immune system response. That immune response can cause autoimmune side effects just like any virus can cause autoimmune side effects. What we know from a couple hundred years of studying viruses and vaccines is that the side effects appear in 90 days or they don't. There's no lingering time bombs, the immune system doesn't work that way (that would be a fantastically shitty way for the immune system to evolve, so it didn't).

And the mRNA vaccines are just a fragment of the virus genome that cannot reproduce which is packaged in a lipid (fat) particle that will get naturally shredded. It is both as close to "natural" as we can make it to have a low side effect profile and its also highly effective. If you manage to get naturally infected you get a pile of other shit from the virus genome plus self-replicating virions trying to kill you, which is all worse, nothing better.

And due to the concept of original antigenic sin you really do want to have your first exposure to the virus be something which your immune system mounts a strong defense to and learns how to clear the virus without killing you. If you get infected for real and wind up in the hospital your maladaptive response to the virus may wind up causing you problems down the road as the virus becomes endemic and you get infected with a different strain in the future. You should be worried about the long-term effects of that a lot more than the long-term effects of the vaccine.

I wasn't talking just about the US, I think we need very high levels of vaccination everywhere to make it statistically not a threat. We need to control the spread of the virus to levels where it's not mutating at evolutionarily scales, _everywhere_, and the only way to effectively do that is vaccines.

It's not a threat at this very moment, for this very point in time, but since we're allowing the virus to spread at such evolutionarily scales, inside and outside the US, a new variant popping up that evades vaccines is statistically very possible, and pose a significant threat to my own and society's well being.

I'm trying to argue that this is not a personal choice issue, rather a public health one.

It has been said for criminality, that’s why you can get set aside from society for a 15-20 stretch.