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I’m an ICU Doctor and I Can't Believe What Unvaccinated Patients Are Saying

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Re: I’m an ICU Doctor and I Can't Believe What Unvaccinated Patients Are Saying

#111
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I padded the death count by 50% to account for this in the story (400k people died of covid in the USA in 2020, not 600k). If you compare covid deaths per capita across various states, you won't find huge differences even though some states had extreme restrictions in place (California) and some states had lax restrictions in place (Utah, Florida, etc). Say there's a parallel universe where masks and social distancin…

> If you have any real-world examples you could point to to make your case, that would be helpful. India or Brazil would seem to be the obvious counterfactuals. Unfortunately, their officially reported death rates probably can't be trusted so the best we can do is look at excess deaths, and in India, as an example, it's... pretty ugly: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/07/20/1018438... That's closer to 3…

India is a very bad counterexample. 1) Think tank estimates of 10-fold higher mortality than official should be taken with a grain of salt. 2) It is a poor country with many problems – corruption (they failed to deliver oxygen cylinders to hospitals just because nobody cared), 3) healthcare issues (untreated TB, infectious diseases etc.), 4) social aspects (housing, slums, overcrowded places). Do you know what is the average life expectancy in Indian slums? The last time I checked it was just about 40 years. They can and will vaccinate against covid but to help slum dwellers they will need much more work and social changes.

In short, it is in no way comparable to any western country.

Brazil mortality however is only <50% higher than the US so it is not even worth to analyse it.

Re: I’m an ICU Doctor and I Can't Believe What Unvaccinated Patients Are Saying

#112
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most convincing one was a version of "what if in 20 years they're running those ads like they did for mesothelioma?"

> The most convincing one was a version of "what if in 20 years they're running those ads like they did for mesothelioma?" That argument is equally valid against doing almost anything , not just getting the vaccine.

I didn’t say I was convinced; it’s the argument they returned to, tho.

Re: I’m an ICU Doctor and I Can't Believe What Unvaccinated Patients Are Saying

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And a lot of the die hards will probably come around when the vaccine becomes part of the normal, boring health care routine instead of something they’re being “forced into” in an emergency, You know, you go in to the clinic in the winter with a cold. Doc asks if you’ve had your flu shot. Asks if you’ve had your COVID shot. That’s a much more comfortable context for people, I think. Have you looked at uptake rates…

Well 70% of people adults are already on board, so we don’t need to worry about besting that number. The question is how do reduce resistance. My totally made up theory is that some people are just generally resistant to things being “pushed” from above, and some people are more concerned about new technology than others. Both of those things will probably improve as this cools off and becomes less political. In the…

You are failing to account for identity politics.

I think it's far more likely that the expressed reasons you cite are, for many (I'd bet 15-20% of the population), just rationalizations for the underlying reason which is that being anti-covid-vaccine is now a part of some folks political, cultural, and/or religious identity.

And it is damn tough to break through something like that. That's doubly true when political and religious leaders are actively pushing people to not get vaccinated.

Re: I’m an ICU Doctor and I Can't Believe What Unvaccinated Patients Are Saying

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well 70% of people adults are already on board, so we don’t need to worry about besting that number. The question is how do reduce resistance. My totally made up theory is that some people are just generally resistant to things being “pushed” from above, and some people are more concerned about new technology than others. Both of those things will probably improve as this cools off and becomes less political. In the…

You are failing to account for identity politics. I think it's far more likely that the expressed reasons you cite are, for many (I'd bet 15-20% of the population), just rationalizations for the underlying reason which is that being anti-covid-vaccine is now a part of some folks political, cultural, and/or religious identity. And it is damn tough to break through something like that. That's doubly true when political…

No, I’m not discounting it. That’s what I’m talking about when i refer to people resistant to things “pushed from above.” I’m saying that’s part of the issue, and it’s only going to be solved (if it can be), by depoliticizing the issue and making it a mundane medical concern. And that’s going to take time, and backing off the stick.

Or… you know, just give people 500 bucks (including everybody who already did it.)

Re: I’m an ICU Doctor and I Can't Believe What Unvaccinated Patients Are Saying

#115
post #2

I can. I got my shots as soon as I could, but I know lots of people that will never do it. Yesterday I was eating at a ramen shop - traffic was slow, so I got to listen to the bulletproof young man waiting tables talk to his friend at length about how he'd never get the shot, just like the flu, I'm not an anti-vaxxer - but, I don't wear tinfoil hats - but. The list of reasons not to do it was long and apparently conv…

I'm curious, if you are young, what are the reasons to get vaccinated?

Social responsibility.

Covid can't live long outside a host, and it absolutely can't reproduce outside a host. It uses the host's cell reproduction mechanisms to reproduce. IT CANNOT REPRODUCE ON ITS OWN. That's why the virus infects you, so that it can reproduce, and its species can continue to exist. Its niche is to use the host's cell reproduction mechanisms to reproduce.

If we had strong herd immunity, then covid would likely become something deadly but manageable, because the spread would be limited and slower. Mutations would slow, because the mutations would have fewer opportunities to persist.

Everything that reproduces experiences genetic mutation. "Mistakes are made." Most mutations don't persist and don't have much effect. Some mutations cause the organism to die or otherwise fail to reproduce, limiting the mutation's persistence.

Some mutations do persist. Red hair. Downs syndrome. Etc.

The "life cycle" of a virus is very short and very fast. Anyone infected with the virus gives that virus an environment to reproduce, and to mutate. A lot.

All the variants we have, including Delta, which won't be the last, are because enough people gave the virus an environment to thrive.

If you are infected, even if you have no symptoms, then you are providing the virus a safe haven to reproduce, thrive, and mutate. And you will spread it to others.

As for immunity, we have two ways to acquire it. With the vaccine, your body produces an immune response without having to host, increase and spread the virus.

Without the vaccine, if you're infected, and you don't die, then you'll likely have some immunity. But you've also spread it to other people, who may die from it, and who will further spread it. And you'll all probably contribute to the next mutation.

"I'm not vaccinated, and I never got the virus." Maybe. You could have been infected without symptoms, and therefore you did spread it, possibly killing one or more people.

"I got covid, but didn't go to the hospital. I beat it!"

Or,

"I got covid, went to the hospital, but recovered. I beat it!"

No you didn't. You spread it to other people, and helped it mutate into something stronger and more deadly.

"My $PERSON got it, and died in the hospital. But that was their choice, it didn't affect anyone else."

Yes it did. They spread it to other people, and they consumed medical resources and staff that could have been used by other covid and non-covid patients.

It's not just you, it's the people around you that you will infect, and all the follow on results.

Get the fucking vaccine.

Re: I’m an ICU Doctor and I Can't Believe What Unvaccinated Patients Are Saying

#116
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know a doctor at a hospital and he said that the current percentage of vaccinated Covid admissions is very close to the overall percentage of vaccinated people in his area.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Every jurisdiction reporting actual, real data and not just rumours on Fox News has indicated that over 90% of Covid admissions are unvaccinated, even in areas with greater than 50% of the population with two doses.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm

In the Provincetown, Massachusetts outbreak: "Among five COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized, four were fully vaccinated".

Re: I’m an ICU Doctor and I Can't Believe What Unvaccinated Patients Are Saying

#117
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a hunch there’s quite a few people who just don’t like needles, and are happy there are so many creative excuses to avoid getting the shot.

Possibly, but they wouldn't make a noticeable number. The antivaxxers crowd is bigger and more motivated by the same nonsense. I wonder why they, including the same people who hate injections, never complained about mandatory vaccines for their kids, a practice that went on for decades in many countries? For example, most European countries had and still have 10 or more obligatory vaccinations for diseases that were…

I have likely received more vaccinations than most people here, as a result of my travels and history. I have not been vaccinated for COVID-19. I did receive a positive test (a few days of unusual coughing and lethargy) in November, and confirmed with extensive antibody testing recently that I still have natural resistance. I am not opposed to getting vaccinated, if/when necessary, but now is not that time. I am well informed of the risk/reward matrices and the mechanisms of this coronavirus and its variants.

Your portrayal is disgusting to me, full of irrational hatred and prejudicial biases. It seems borne of an unwavering religious fervor, the likes of which we haven't seen in the West for hundreds of years. I do hope you find some peace within, rather than needing to spew your hateful language across the world.

Re: I’m an ICU Doctor and I Can't Believe What Unvaccinated Patients Are Saying

#118
post #26

Folks - if someone you know is not vaccinated at this point in time (in the US) - it's entirely on them if they get sick. And guess what - they already know this, made that decision, and nothing you rant and rave about is going to change it. Quit trying to drum up some mandatory vaccine rhetoric - or villianize these people. Just leave them alone and go about your life in whatever way you think is appropriate for you…

You may want to have av word with my wife who is under strong immunodepressants and did not react to the vaccine. Three times. Two kind of vaccines. The healthy unvaccinated dickheads idiots, because they are idiots but do not realize it, should simply be forced to get a vaccine or be put aside from society. And because they are idiots and won't understand it anyway, do not spend to much resources trying to explain t…

Imagine if the same was said for criminality.

Re: I’m an ICU Doctor and I Can't Believe What Unvaccinated Patients Are Saying

#119
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't disagree more. Doesn't it feel a little too convenient to label your opposition as "beyond saving"? And how do you propose we "deal with this movement now" if you've convinced yourself they can't be reasoned with? I know it's not true from first hand experience. I've convinced a dozen people with hard-right political ideologies to get the vaccine. It hasn't always worked, but I've had much more success than n…

I didn't label them as "beyond saving", etc. I'm not saying to be disrespectful. I'm saying that the problem isn't respect, it's the ideology of the political movement to reject masks, the vaccine, and everything else - there was no chance they would accept it; they are extreme reactionaries. Try to imagine a scenario where the government announced masks and a vaccine, and they all got in line. Respect is only a just…

Your use of "reactionary" gives me simultaneously both hints of an extreme lack of self awareness and a strong sense of "Conform or die."

Might wanna work on that messaging.

Re: I’m an ICU Doctor and I Can't Believe What Unvaccinated Patients Are Saying

#120
post #104
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You won't stop mutations. It's a pandemic, world-wide - and short of blocking all international travel, freight/shipping, etc - if there is a new mutation somewhere in the world, it will eventually land here in the US. Herd immunity - either reached by vaccinations, previous-infections, or both - is all we can hope for. Good news is, we don't need unvaccinated people's cooperation to reach herd immunity - they will e…

Of course, we can never stop all mutations. However, for mutations to be useful for the virus, they do need to happen at an evolutionary scale. Especially because we're lucky that SARS-CoV-2 mutates much slower than Influenza and HIV. If the rate of transmission reaches the elusive herd immunity, the time-frame for the virus to evolve into evading vaccines grows significantly longer, even with a non-zero mutation rat…

Your original point was we got lucky with the Delta variant because our current vaccines still work.

I'm saying it doesn't matter - even if we had a 100% vaccination rate, some new variant will develop someplace that's being ravaged right now (say, India) and spread to the US eventually anyway. If our vaccines still work - great... if they don't, well.. where are we then?

Lastly, the numbers already indicate it's statistically not a threat to the overwhelming majority of the US population as-is.

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