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Where are the robotic bricklayers?

constructionphysics.substack.com

111–120 of 564 posts

Re: Where are the robotic bricklayers?

#111
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having respect for the skills of a worker and also believing that they are possible to automate are not mutually exclusive. It's no different from people saying the same thing about chess and chess players, or go and go players, before the problem was solved. And it's not just blue collar workers that are a target of this idea. We are already starting to see automated programming moving out of the research lab and in…

Programming will be automated long before brick laying. We can barely print a document with confidence.

Programming is the conversion of ambiguous human requirements into machine readable instructions. To automate, computers would need to understand ambiguous human requirements. This is AGI.

By comparison, brick laying is trivial.

Re: Where are the robotic bricklayers?

#112
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't have contempt for the skills; I have great respect for the skills. I have contempt for the prices of things. If construction costs are cheaper than ever (are they really?) why can't I buy a box to live in without spending $300,000? Why is the permits process nationally broken? And despite being skilled, that doesn't mean they're informed: why do contractors not know what they're supposed to do? Why do the peo…

Cost of lumber, cost of land, cost of equipment, cost of permits, cost of inspections. It really isn't a box for $300k. You can buy a mobile home for what $60k? Permit process isn't broken.....this is a view often held by incompetent contractors. I have performed various jobs like building retaining walls, bathrooms, electrical, decks and never had an issue as long as my work was up to code. Permits can protect a hom…

Permits are a local government issue. Maybe your local government is extremely reasonable and punctual when it comes to building permits, while my local government is lazy or stupid or corrupt. Maybe you have no problem with building permits because you don't live in a county where the authorities slow-walk anyone who doesn't buy them a case of whisky.

Re: Where are the robotic bricklayers?

#113
post #28

The great contempt that computer people have for the skills that every human brings to the jobs that the do is always on display here. We haven't automated driving; we haven't automated picking tomatoes; we haven't automated bricklaying; we can't automate cooking a fucking hamburger. But they are completely convinced that it's just around the corner, because they are full of contempt for the skill and intelligence of…

the best part is programming has been getting automated since it began. the assumption that since that process of automation hasn't cut into programmers' salaries and job prospects yet that it won't ever, like making software is something special.

I think many programmers do assume that their job could be automated. I showed GPT-3 to coworkers and they immediately took that into consideration.

Re: Where are the robotic bricklayers?

#114
post #8

There's no need for robotic brick layers - it's requires significantly less dexterity to just 3D print a house, and it allows for shapes and contours that are simply impossible to construct from bricks.

And yet, almost no houses at all are 3D printed. People are very good at bricklaying, and are paid a reasonable rate by the hour. No one has made a machine that can beat that feature set. edit: more great features of human brickies that robots are terrible at: very small working volume; very small and agile footprint; safe for other humans to work near; half-day built-in power supply.

Most people don’t buy brick houses. They buy vinyl siding which is 1/5 the cost of bricks and bricklaying.

Re: Where are the robotic bricklayers?

#115
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Programming will be automated long before brick laying. We can barely print a document with confidence.

Programming is the conversion of ambiguous human requirements into machine readable instructions. To automate, computers would need to understand ambiguous human requirements. This is AGI. By comparison, brick laying is trivial.

This plays exactly into the OP's comment - but if that is your sincerely held belief there are ~4,000 bricklayers~[1] in America today and you could make a whole boatload of money if you could automate their work.

1. According to the BLS link below it's actually closer to 50,000.

Re: Where are the robotic bricklayers?

#116
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cost of lumber, cost of land, cost of equipment, cost of permits, cost of inspections. It really isn't a box for $300k. You can buy a mobile home for what $60k? Permit process isn't broken.....this is a view often held by incompetent contractors. I have performed various jobs like building retaining walls, bathrooms, electrical, decks and never had an issue as long as my work was up to code. Permits can protect a hom…

>and never had an issue as long as my work was up to code Permits cost tens of thousands of dollars, and months of processing in my area. They’re happy to sign off at the end after they’ve extracted the maximum they can from you.

Sounds more like a problem with your area, or maybe you're doing different type of work compared to what I'm doing with my house (residential vs commercial maybe?). I've been applying for various kinds of permits (building, electrical, plumbing, still need to get mechanical) and in all those cases, I applied online and the permit was issued same or the next day (& precon inspections that I went through have all been scheduled for the next business day). Total cost was in the ballpark of $1000. This is in WA. I did not need any structural changes so the process for the building permit was cheaper & quicker than it could've been. I also had some work done that did require structural engineer & submitting drawings - it was a fraction of the remodel cost anyway.

OTOH, insisting on permits potentially saved my ass at least in one case - I had a contractor remodel my bathroom say that "they do everything up to code". Their work did not pass inspections on the first try (had to fix things up both for plumbing and electrical).

Re: Where are the robotic bricklayers?

#117
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we haven't automated picking tomatoes I wouldn’t know whether their claims hold water, but http://www.automatorobotics.com/autonomous-single-tomato-har... : A robot that can reliably detect ripe tomatoes and harvest them with consistent quality at a rate of 10-12 tomatoes per minute. […] reducing the harvest costs by 50% (The videos give me the impression that “10-12 tomatoes per minute” is best-case)

I can see an automated tomato picker working well for tomato varieties that are uniform and grow on largely uniform plants. But those tomatoes are bland. Heirloom tomatoes look like a topology project gone horribly wrong, and the colors aren't found in any Pantone catalog. They are also the most delicious. There's definitely a place for both. We have to get ketchup ingredients from somewhere, and gourmands will alway…

> I can see an automated tomato picker working well for tomato varieties that are uniform and grow on largely uniform plants. But those tomatoes are bland.

Throughout history, our main trick when solving a problem with technology was to constrain the problem to something that's much easier to solve, by changing the environment.

For example, all-terrain mechanized transport is hard, and to this day, nobody except hobbyists and militaries even bothers to try tackling it. Our solution was to flatten the terrain into roads, so that we could just use wheels. We've been iterating on that idea ever since.

Re: Where are the robotic bricklayers?

#118

The value of work is not in the work done; it's in the decisions being made. It's the ability to handle edge cases, to work your way through ambiguity, to "unstuck" a stuck situation, and to resolve tricky unforeseen issues. If you build a robot that only handles the main workflow and can't handle any of the exceptions, you're not automating anything; you're building a convenience tool. Basically, you're removing som…

Automating any repeated sequence of actions is a valid concept that doesn’t need to be rebranded as “convenience tooling”. If decision-making is required, that sounds more like an autonomy requirement to me. Autonomy is a concept distinct from automation, and not mutually exclusive.

Re: Where are the robotic bricklayers?

#119
post #28

The great contempt that computer people have for the skills that every human brings to the jobs that the do is always on display here. We haven't automated driving; we haven't automated picking tomatoes; we haven't automated bricklaying; we can't automate cooking a fucking hamburger. But they are completely convinced that it's just around the corner, because they are full of contempt for the skill and intelligence of…

the best part is programming has been getting automated since it began. the assumption that since that process of automation hasn't cut into programmers' salaries and job prospects yet that it won't ever, like making software is something special.

Automation of a field:

(1) increases the value produced per unit of labor input in the field at the low end of quantity, but potentially resulting in reaching the point of rapidly diminishing returns faster.

(2) and, increases the domain in which creating/maintaining automation has value, increasing the value of automation work and pushing out the point where automation work reaches diminishing returns.

Which is why programming (viewed broadly)—itself part of automating any field—keeps being resilient against adverse impacts from automation. Because as long as we are increasing the scope of automation generally, we’re pushing out the diminishing returns point for programming, and automation of programming isn't pulling that point down fast enough to offset that effect. And automation—both of programming and of everything else—keeps pushing up the starting value of programming work. (It also makes it more abstract and about providing input to higher-level automation tools.)

Re: Where are the robotic bricklayers?

#120
post #28

The great contempt that computer people have for the skills that every human brings to the jobs that the do is always on display here. We haven't automated driving; we haven't automated picking tomatoes; we haven't automated bricklaying; we can't automate cooking a fucking hamburger. But they are completely convinced that it's just around the corner, because they are full of contempt for the skill and intelligence of…

I don't have contempt for the skills; I have great respect for the skills. I have contempt for the prices of things. If construction costs are cheaper than ever (are they really?) why can't I buy a box to live in without spending $300,000? Why is the permits process nationally broken? And despite being skilled, that doesn't mean they're informed: why do contractors not know what they're supposed to do? Why do the peo…

In attempt to turn this teachable: the costs that go into housing aren't just labour, whether skilled or unskilled. It's a number of economic goods and services, each of which has its own price dyanmic.

The chief cost of housing is land, and that follows the laws of economic rents and assets, in two principle ways:

- For goods subject to rents, that is, where supply is nonresponsive to price, any surplus value accrues to the seller rather than the buyer. The marginal price tends toward the marginal value rather than the marginal cost.

- Moreover, as an asset, land is subject to the general behavioural tendency that holders of assets will tend to act such that the value of assets inflates. This is through constraining supply, sale, credentialling, regulation, certification, and other elements. This shows up in zoning, construction, certifiction, lending, insurance, and other obligations or limitations on new construction.

- Unskilled labour is subject to wages, which tend to fall to the level of marginal cost, if not below that. Incidentally, in a simple society of labourers vs. rentiers, surplus value accrues to the rentiers as a case of the law of rent vs. the iron law of wages.

- Skilled labour wages deviate from those of unskilled as skill itself is a rent-generating factor, and hence skilled labourers can command somewhat higher wages. (Adam Smith's discussion of the five factors involved in the wages of labour are a fascinating read.)

- Materials follow natural resource pricing, which ... is very poorly understood by modern economic theory, but tends to follow the marginal cost of provision by the marginal supplier. That is, the supplier with the highest viable cost structure sets the market price for the commodity. Perversely, when the market is oversupplied, prices often fall (expected) and production rises as the only way producers have of meeting their own fixed costs is to produce and sell more at the lower price. (This occurs because marginal costs may fall below fixed costs.) The situation is not long-term sustainable, but may persist for a substantial period of time. For purely extractive resources (mining, gas, oil), the replacement cost of the good is not factored in at all, and market prices may be hundreds to millions of times below any rational fully-accounted cost basis.

Net productivity of labour has increased markedly. The land-cost of housing has increased far beyond that. Materials have shifted in several ways, with numerous older materials having been replaced by nominally-cheaper modern equivalents. Restrictions on construction methods, materials, designs, etc., impose additional costs and constraints in design and building as well.

The question largely reveals a large ignorance of the factors involved.

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