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South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

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Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#281

Post by jccalhoun »

vjdingdong wrote: post #166

German unification was unthinkable until the soviet union collapsed. Maybe in 25 years, the 2 Koreas will be reunited, making Korea an even bigger power on the global stage.

I don't know that it will actually happen any time soon. I don't think South Korea wants the burden of modernizing the North and despite what most coverage indicates, I don't think Kim Jong-un is crazy enough to actually start a war. As long as Kim doesn't die or get killed, I think North Korea will sadly remain as it is for a long time.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#282

Post by SECProto »

eatonphil wrote: post #25
someperson wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

South Korea, Taiwan, and China all developed their infrastructure relatively recently, so it makes sense that their skyscrapers and subway systems are gleaming. Fast forward 50 years (once the demographic collapse has fully hit Asia and Europe), and we'll see if their infrastructure continues to be so modern.

Yes but compared to Japan? All of Asia started from scratch after WW2 and Korea was only 10 years behind Japan due to their war. But Tokyo infrastructure felt basically as old as NYC infrastructure to me (a totally qualitative impression). That said, Tokyo is massively cleaner and nicer than NYC even if some of the infrastructure seems old. There is no question it is nicer than NYC.

> All of Asia started from scratch after WW2 and Korea was only 10 years behind Japan due to their war.

The Seoul subway [1] opened its first line in the mid-1970s (8km of line 1). Most of their subway growth opened in 1995 and later, a huge amount post-2000.

The first Tokyo subway line [2][3] opened in 1927, with only 3 new lines since the late 1970s (and barely even any line extensions in the 2000s)

It feels newer in SK because it is.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seoul_Metropolitan_Subway

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toei_Subway

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_Metro

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#283

Post by [deleted] »

calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

[deleted]

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#284

Post by throw37388 »

spothedog1 wrote: post #278
throw37388 wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is limited supply of housing and low qualified jobs. Maybe read what Marx wrote about Irish immigrants to UK. And those already spoke local language and shared similar culture.

Limited supply of housing is an artificial local government constraint using tools like zoning and permitting to stop the construction of new housing keep prices high for incumbent owners. I agree it’s a huge problem but I would rather fight the constraint on supply than limit demand (partially immigrants) when they contribute so much else. We shouldn’t restrict economic growth and deny millions of people the chance…

Please. We have 40% unemployment in Greece among young people. Housing is bloody expensive to build. It is not some goverment conspiracy!

Did you actually try to immigrate into US? It is one of the worst countries at accepting immigration. Any normal country gives citizenship after 5 years of residency. In US it is like 30 years.

And from far away it looks like your melting pot is broken. Too many groups fighting each other.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#285

Post by acituan »

csomar wrote: post #124
calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

Not really. Immigration has become an issue lately because a human (or a bare-human) is worth much less. 1.000 years ago a bare illiterate human had some considerable value. He could work in the field or he could fight. More humans, more food and production. More humans, more manpower to fight your enemies. Now a bare semi-educated human is a liability. Which is why most countries are refusing their entrance. Times h…

One of the most nihilistic takes I’ve seen in a long while.

With “worth”, “value”, “liability” you are only talking about the narrow, economic definitions of those words.

The problem is not everything valuable is captured in economic expression, not everything is readily marketable, which doesn’t mean they are not valuable. And I am not being romantic here; for the longest time we suffered for not measuring the value of childbirth, mothering a newborn and general domestic labor for example. (Surrogacy being new aside, also doesn’t make a reliable proxy because it doesn’t measure mothering in situ, contractual asymmetries get priced into the transaction.)

Hyperindividualistic western fantasy assumes even attachment and emotional needs can be marketed (eg therapy), but suicide rates show that traditional close-knit societies fare much better. Just because you can’t measure the dollar amount of small talk and care from your neighborhood grocer, doesn’t mean it is worthlessness.

People are worthless only if you waste them. You risk wasting them when you instrumentalize and objectify them excessively, when you interject the market into relationships you shouldn’t.

The waste theory is a self-fulfilling prophecy of neoliberalism. And I agree that we might be getting there if we don’t awaken from the normativity of market thinking.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#286

Post by jimbob45 »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #135
csomar wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Immigration has become an issue lately because a human (or a bare-human) is worth much less. 1.000 years ago a bare illiterate human had some considerable value. He could work in the field or he could fight. More humans, more food and production. More humans, more manpower to fight your enemies. Now a bare semi-educated human is a liability. Which is why most countries are refusing their entrance. Times h…

There's only so much juice you can squeeze out of a shrinking workforce, though. And as retirees continue to make up a larger portion of the popular vote - they'll continue to demand more from a shrinking workforce. At some point (I imagine in my lifetime) - the straw will break the camel's back.

I hate this viewpoint. It makes it seem like retirees are a nefarious bunch who are taking advantage of youngsters.

In reality, age discrimination makes it nigh impossible to land a meaningful job once you're over the age of 60.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#287

Post by asoneth »

novok wrote: post #200
asoneth wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we will see cites change or depopulate? Or neither. Cities since at least the Roman era have been considered "population sinks". That is, they often maintain or grow their population by attracting surplus population born outside of the city. As an experiment, if you ever find yourself in a large city like San Francisco, New York, London, or Tokyo, ask around and note what fraction of the residents you meet were act…

There are many cities that seem more child friendly than others although. Like berlin, or even new york compared to SF.

Agreed. SF can afford to drive away families as long as it can continue to attract far more net population growth than the housing stock can support.

From a purely financial standpoint, skimming motivated young talent from around the world and then discouraging them from having kids or encouraging them to leave if they do seems like it would be a cheaper approach than raising a native population.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#288

Post by dirtyid »

Dead comment in this thread with apt observation:

>Firstly, you can't be a "power" if you are occupied. You are a vassal, nothing more.

SK (also JP and TW), as nominal American satraps, with their political existence underpinned by American security commitments, will have problems exporting synthesized east/west liberal models because others in the region without suchy commitments are driven by desire for security first and foremost. Usually that means suppressing liberal values / sources of foreign influence. A nation who can't defend itself is going to have hardtime being a role model, it's like a trust fund kid lecturing to others about bootstraps. The author’s affiliation in specific SK ministries and submission from nationalinterest also should give readers pause.

That said, SK is making some interesting pivots into military industrial complex. There's sufficient technological expertise and heavy industry that I can see them being a credible middle power model if they took lead on self-defense and distance appearance of being a US "vassal". Sending forces to Hormuz to secure oil route after Iran drama is also a good start.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#289

Post by deeviant »

calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

> The core issue is that in most of the developed world, people do not have enough children

The carrying capacity of the planet earth would like to have a talk with you.

Continuing exponential population growth is obviously not a sustainable path forward. At some point, The world's economies are going to have to realign to a flat population and will have to adapt to the demographics there of. And if humanity does not choose not to do so, at some point in the future, the choice will be made for us.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#290

Post by haakonhr »

spothedog1 wrote: post #271
jeffreyrogers wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those European countries also developed fast without much immigration (including Switzerland and the Nordics, which were not affected much by the war). It may have nothing to do with immigration, but you certainly haven't proved that. Edit: Currently the poorest parts of the US population are stagnating at best, at a time when rates of both legal and illegal immigration are quite high. It is hard to make the argument…

Yea they were mostly rebuilding the physical world and not having to completely rebuild society from the ground. Small countries like the Nordics aren’t great examples because they’re so small and a massive part of their wealth came from selling oil to the wider world. The amount of oil revenue generated per person in those countries allowed them develop such a high standard of living along with really smart and egal…

That's inaccurate at best about the Nordics. Norway, yes, and Denmark to some degree. Neither Finland or Sweden have or had any significant oil and gas reserves, but built their economies on industry (and mining to some extent).
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