SpaceX installed 29 Raptor engines on a Super Heavy rocket last night • Hacker News Board

Re: SpaceX installed 29 Raptor engines on a Super Heavy rocket last night

#341

Post by soonnow » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 8:46 AM UTC

KronisLV wrote: post #319

cryptonector wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Malthusians exist. They think we're running out of oil, soil and arable land, fresh water, and... just about everything. The logic is that since population growth is exponential, we really could run out of resources. And... that's both totally correct and totally wrong. Totally correct: because yeah, duh, if we had 1 trillion people... Totally wrong: because in fact the arc of evolution of fertility rates, population…

> But the malthusians want to reduce population by 16x This seems pretty extreme, but thank you for bringing the concept of Malthusianism ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism ) to my attention. While i'm not convinced that it's likely to be the end of humanity (but rather the results of thousands of compounding factors), the irresponsibility in regards to unrestrained consumerism is something that i see ever…

I strongly believe the consuming less is not the way to solve the climate crisis.

The reason is that it's thought from a perspective of the global north, that assumes we just need to restrict a little to achieve a lot. That is not going to solve the global climate crisis.

The simple reason is that there are 7 billion people who are not living in the rich countries. These people have the right to access resources as much as the people born in rich countries.

Consuming 20% less carbon in the west will not offset the increased consumption in the rest of the world.

Every gallon of oil that can be produced at a reasonable price will be consumed. If Europe and the US switched to all electric cars tomorrow, the rest of the world would still consume the oil, especially at a lower price than now (because the US and Europe are no longer conusming it).

There are things we could do right now, without significant impact to our lifestyle. I just learned, that over 3% of climate emissions are crop burning. 2% is deforestation. We could literally stop this with the signing of a bill. The US and the EU agree to tax imports from crop burning countries at a high rate. It will drive up prices of Brazilian beef and Indonesian palm oil a little, but of little impact to the consumer.

Cement is another 3%, which could be solved with CO2 neutral cement. Electric trucks will be a game changer once they are cheaper to run than Gas trucks. And yes nuclear is something we can't stop developing.

When I argue for a tech forward approach than not because I'm a tech bro that believes science solves all problems, but because I strongly believe reductions are not gonna work. If we rely on consumption reductions we are truly screwed.

Re: SpaceX installed 29 Raptor engines on a Super Heavy rocket last night

#342

Post by lucideer » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 9:11 AM UTC

fastball wrote: post #287

lucideer wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's true most of the time. Where it falls down is in cases where it's not "we". There's plenty of orgs doing worthwhile and important space exploration. There's a bunch of individuals destroying this planet who want to go to space and are selling a nice colonists fantasy to get backing. You're right that it's not either or: let's continue supporting viable space efforts. But let's not be naive about it.

Your comment sounds like you should be supporting SpaceX. SpaceX is one of the only orgs that has re-used orbital class rockets for useful payloads.

I am. SpaceX is cool (as is the OP article).

This particular thread of comments is specifically about Mars colonisation.

Re: SpaceX installed 29 Raptor engines on a Super Heavy rocket last night

#343

Post by nickik » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 9:16 AM UTC

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #338

cryptonector wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Malthusians exist. They think we're running out of oil, soil and arable land, fresh water, and... just about everything. The logic is that since population growth is exponential, we really could run out of resources. And... that's both totally correct and totally wrong. Totally correct: because yeah, duh, if we had 1 trillion people... Totally wrong: because in fact the arc of evolution of fertility rates, population…

Well, quite. Climate change also exists. So do resource limits. Something that doesn't exist is the science of living outside of an existing planetary ecosystem. Do some research on how much is understood about creating a stable ecosystem out of sand, metal ore, and water. You'll find it's a good approximation to zero. Flag wavers think it's all about building giant rockets, planting a flag - and boom. Colony! Astero…

> Flag wavers think it's all about building giant rockets, planting a flag - and boom. Colony! Asteroid mining! Etc!

Nobody actually interested in space believes this.

> So until that changes

It wont change unless you try to change it.

Re: SpaceX installed 29 Raptor engines on a Super Heavy rocket last night

#344

Post by nickik » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 9:17 AM UTC

vardump wrote: post #336

cryptonector wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Malthusians exist. They think we're running out of oil, soil and arable land, fresh water, and... just about everything. The logic is that since population growth is exponential, we really could run out of resources. And... that's both totally correct and totally wrong. Totally correct: because yeah, duh, if we had 1 trillion people... Totally wrong: because in fact the arc of evolution of fertility rates, population…

> Malthusians exist. As long as the population increases, Malthus is right. There is going to be some ultimate carrying capacity at some point. Ultimate amount of energy we can harness. It's just a question when. Certainly before our energy consumption is enough to literally boil the oceans. Plug in different growth rates and the answer could range from tens of years to hundreds of millions of years!

Yes and in billion years the sun will expand, but we don't bring that up in every discussion.

Its not actually practically relevant and every-time people used it as an argument it has been proven in terms of practical impact.

Re: SpaceX installed 29 Raptor engines on a Super Heavy rocket last night

#345

Post by nickik » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 9:21 AM UTC

jvm wrote: post #119

throw0101a wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Only in America things like this can happen. > A whole industry bootstrapping itself to make semi-conductors doubling every 18 months, going from exotic, mission critical hardware to commodity; Silicon Valley did not bootstrap itself. It received untold billions of dollars from the US government during the Cold War (and lots of stuff happened during the WW2 economy, when the US was the Allies' armorer). Do you thin…

This is such an annoying argument. The government gave $18B to the SLS and so far has vapor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System The government spent $211B on the shuttle program and got 133 launches. SpaceX will probably surpass that number this year at a fraction of the cost. NASA's record on rockets since Apollo has been abysmal. I don't think government is necessarily bad (the Russians did a much be…

> the Russians did a much better job in recent decades

The they didn't. What nonsense. They just keep flying the same old stuff as the quality gets worse and they don't do anything new.

Re: SpaceX installed 29 Raptor engines on a Super Heavy rocket last night

#346

Post by nickik » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 9:22 AM UTC

emkoemko wrote: post #245

jvm wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is such an annoying argument. The government gave $18B to the SLS and so far has vapor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System The government spent $211B on the shuttle program and got 133 launches. SpaceX will probably surpass that number this year at a fraction of the cost. NASA's record on rockets since Apollo has been abysmal. I don't think government is necessarily bad (the Russians did a much be…

and yet it would be nice to still have the shuttle program... so far nothing is capable of EVA like the shuttle was so any repairs in space are still not possible, like they did in the past with the shuttle.

Repairs in space with humans never actually make sense. For the price of those missions you could have simply built a better sat in the first place.

Re: SpaceX installed 29 Raptor engines on a Super Heavy rocket last night

#347

Post by nickik » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 9:24 AM UTC

sandworm101 wrote: post #175

devoutsalsa wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Watching the Falcon Heavy take off & land was one of the coolest things in my life. Watching Starship take off, land, and blow up was neat. The fact that these things build on previous accomplishments doesn’t make them any less impressive. Enjoy the ride & don’t poop on the party.

>> Enjoy the ride & don’t poop on the party. Legitimate criticism of SpaceX fanboys is not "Pooping on the party". People who pretend that this is a ground-up space program, an icon of how private enterprise is always better at everything, need to be educated in the history of spaceflight. I myself could build a car in my garage that is better/faster/cheaper than everything available in decades past. That doesn't mea…

The problems is other who are standing on the same shoulder of the same giants, even the original giants themselves fail to turn this theoretical advantage into actually being

> better/faster/cheaper than everything

So do talking down SpaceX based on that makes no sense.

Re: SpaceX installed 29 Raptor engines on a Super Heavy rocket last night

#348

Post by timeon » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 9:28 AM UTC

soonnow wrote: post #341

KronisLV wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the malthusians want to reduce population by 16x This seems pretty extreme, but thank you for bringing the concept of Malthusianism ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism ) to my attention. While i'm not convinced that it's likely to be the end of humanity (but rather the results of thousands of compounding factors), the irresponsibility in regards to unrestrained consumerism is something that i see ever…

I strongly believe the consuming less is not the way to solve the climate crisis. The reason is that it's thought from a perspective of the global north, that assumes we just need to restrict a little to achieve a lot. That is not going to solve the global climate crisis. The simple reason is that there are 7 billion people who are not living in the rich countries. These people have the right to access resources as m…

Reductions are not gonna work nor tech. Technology is just going to increase demand.

Re: SpaceX installed 29 Raptor engines on a Super Heavy rocket last night

#349

Post by KronisLV » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 9:30 AM UTC

soonnow wrote: post #341

KronisLV wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the malthusians want to reduce population by 16x This seems pretty extreme, but thank you for bringing the concept of Malthusianism ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism ) to my attention. While i'm not convinced that it's likely to be the end of humanity (but rather the results of thousands of compounding factors), the irresponsibility in regards to unrestrained consumerism is something that i see ever…

I strongly believe the consuming less is not the way to solve the climate crisis. The reason is that it's thought from a perspective of the global north, that assumes we just need to restrict a little to achieve a lot. That is not going to solve the global climate crisis. The simple reason is that there are 7 billion people who are not living in the rich countries. These people have the right to access resources as m…

> We could literally stop this with the signing of a bill.

That may be, but Occam's razor suggests that it would be a good idea to ask why that still hasn't been done. Surely there are some reason why such obvious and useful things still haven't been implemented, right? I may be wrong, but i'd like to suggest that there are certain interest groups behind all of that, for whom such changes would be bad for business.

Also, what makes you think that both approaches couldn't be utilized? Use less resources, increase taxes to compensate the drop in prices that would otherwise follow and gradually stop subsidizing things like meat production, at least to the degree where the price at stores is artificially lowered. At the same time, attempt to subsidize wind, sun, geothermal, nuclear and other forms of getting electricity and see whether things are better or worse in 50 years.

Those approaches are not mutually exclusive, as long as you have plenty of legislative bodies on your side. Sadly, we don't and probably won't, at least until a generational shift takes place. As Planck's principle states: "Science progresses one funeral at a time", which could be attributed to social policies to some degree as well.

Of course, in regards to electric vehicles, one also has to consider the necessary infrastructure to support them and what's the CO2 cost of creating their batteries in the first place. For a while, and certainly in some geographical settings, hybrid vehicles could also be good for a gradual transition.

Re: SpaceX installed 29 Raptor engines on a Super Heavy rocket last night

#350

Post by skissane » Tue, Aug 03, 2021, 9:49 AM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #340

jacquesm wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of that would have happened without Werner von Braun and his crew. And Russia beat the US to space to begin with. Yes, SpaceX could only happen in the United States. But let't not pretend that the whole American package warrants the 'favored and exceptional nation' badge that so many seem to want to bestow on it, which is what this American exceptionalism is all about. Shining city on the hill and more of that k…

> None of that would have happened without Werner von Braun and his crew One cannot ignore that they did their later work here. Not there. As did many others whose own societies collapsed or otherwise failed them. In any case, I’m arguing a narrow argument: that a company like SpaceX could only have been founded, when it was founded, in America. Because of its certain characteristics that are an exception in the set…

> its unique ability to assimilate and positively appropriate from immigrants

The US is not unique in that regard. Australia and New Zealand are very comparable in that way. Canada probably belongs in that list too.

I agree that, in the contemporary world, SpaceX could only have happened in the US. But that's because of economic factors (government funding for the space industry, easy and plentiful access to venture capital, a low regulation business environment.) That particular combination of economic factors is unique to the US. Being exceptionally welcoming to immigrants is rare but not unique.