Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

nymag.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

221–230 of 465 posts

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#221

Post by wizzwizz4 »

infamouscow wrote: post #179
wizzwizz4 wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All viruses get less lethal as time goes on, not stronger, This isn't true. Given certain assumptions, it's true on average , but those assumptions don't apply in this case.

It's not an assumption, it's obvious to anyone that looks at data rather than of blindly listening to sensationalized media bullshit.

No, it comes from this model:

Highly-deadly diseases will kill their hosts quickly, limiting their spread. Therefore, one of two things will happen:

• A less-deadly variant will emerge, spread faster, and outcompete its more deadly cousin.

• The deadly disease will kill enough of the population that its R number drops below 1, and thus the deadly disease will die out.

Therefore, observed diseases will tend to get less deadly over time.

---

If you look at the data, we're firmly in “kill enough of the population” town (to the extent you can stretch this model to our situation). The variants we're seeing spread are getting more virulent over time, not less, because:

• we don't want to die and we're doing stuff about that, meaning any model with “most individuals infected are removed from the model” in it is a flawed model; and

• we have fast long-distance travel, so any population model that relies on Euclidean locality is a flawed model.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#222

Post by dcolkitt »

danenania wrote: post #80
Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

Oh fun: the game where everyone puts their pet biases forward in an attempt to explain the behavior of a poorly understood complex system. It reminds me of the financial news. "Commodities markets are spooked as backlash to latest Justin Bieber video mounts!" In all seriousness, apart from the vaccination rate and strictly enforced lockdowns, I have yet to see an explanation for cases going up or down in a particular…

As a tangent, one way to get much more accurate data in a much quicker way is to accept human challenge trials.

We don’t even know the answer to whether delta is vaccine resistant. With challenge trials it would be dead simple. Take 10,000 vaccinated volunteers, randomize into a delta and alpha groups. Spray them in the face with Covid. Compare rates one week later. Question answered immediately with statistical certainty.

Right now, we’re trying to answer questions like this using nothing other than extremely messy observational data that’s subject to all sorts of uncontrollable confounding variables.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#223

Post by dmje »

UK citizen here.

I just don't think this "collapse" is the case.

My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating now the summer holidays have started, and many people are now ignoring track and trace because they're scared of the possible "pingdemic". I know many people who have stopped scanning in to venues. I reckon many suspect they may have Delta but because the holidays have started and they've been cut loose from gov mandates of mask wearing etc, that the "crowd responsibility" factor has almost totally dissipated.

There may be evidence otherwise but I suspect actual figures are far higher than is being reported.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#224

Post by dddddddan »

infamouscow wrote: post #179
wizzwizz4 wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All viruses get less lethal as time goes on, not stronger, This isn't true. Given certain assumptions, it's true on average , but those assumptions don't apply in this case.

It's not an assumption, it's obvious to anyone that looks at data rather than of blindly listening to sensationalized media bullshit.

You haven't cited any data.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#225

Post by Causality1 »

I wonder how well the models account for the "oh shit" factor of people being exposed to enough news about a development like Delta that they change their behavior. All around me people are quietly going back to their early-pandemic habits of distancing and mask wearing despite shedding those habits well before the CDC said they should.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#226

Post by ls612 »

bee_rider wrote: post #77
ls612 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For vaccinated people covid is not at all like the actual flu, it is very much a cold at worst. That is the kind of disease I and the poster above me were referencing

For unvaccinated people it can be quite a bit worse than the flu. The degree of empathy afforded those folks seems to be a subject of active debate I guess...

The good news for them is that it’s easier than ever for them to change their status

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#227

Post by eitland »

wizzwizz4 wrote: post #172
infamouscow wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing the point because the media (and their pharmaceutical advertisers) have framed everything in terms of vaccination, as if the human immune system is incapable of surviving COVID and it's variants. All viruses get less lethal as time goes on, not stronger, despite all the fear porn that has been indoctrinated into the public over the last year and a half.

> All viruses get less lethal as time goes on, not stronger, This isn't true. Given certain assumptions, it's true on average , but those assumptions don't apply in this case.

Agree.

For a specific example the Spanish Flu hit harder later on.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#228

Post by colordrops »

basch wrote: post #123
colordrops wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious why this comment is being downvoted. Anyone wish to comment?

If I had to guess (and maybe I shouldnt be speaking as I didnt downvote), its a combination of "It's time to stop with fear, uncertainty and doubt, and deal with facts" followed by unsubstantiated "compelling evidence that children are at greater risk from the vaccines than the virus." The "time to stop with fear" and to stop catering to "anxious adults" can equally apply to this persons crusade to not vaccinate chil…

When you say "unsubstantiated", what do you mean? The post contained links with references from fairly reputable sources.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#229

Post by quenix »

dmje wrote: post #223

UK citizen here. I just don't think this "collapse" is the case. My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating now the summer holidays have started, and many people are now ignoring track and trace because they're scared of the possible "pingdemic". I know many people who have stopped scanning in to venues. I reckon many suspect they may have…

Shouldn’t we see this reflected in hospital admissions?

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#230

Post by lucb1e »

dmje wrote: post #223

UK citizen here. I just don't think this "collapse" is the case. My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating now the summer holidays have started, and many people are now ignoring track and trace because they're scared of the possible "pingdemic". I know many people who have stopped scanning in to venues. I reckon many suspect they may have…

> My gut feel is that everyone has stopped doing lateral flow tests and reporting those tests: noone wants to be isolating

Okay that's easy to check: data should show a reduction in positive tests roughly on par with the reduction in number of tests.

Recent peak value of tests per day was 16.42 per 1000 citizens on Jul 17th. At that time there were 630.57 positive test results per million citizens.

On July 28th (latest data) tests declined to 13.46 and positive cases to 443.45. That's 18% fewer tests and 30% fewer positive cases, ballpark twice as much.

I don't think your gut is telling you the full story.

All values are 7-day rolling averages to avoid weekday spikes or anything. Source: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor... (use the selector to switch between tests, positive cases, or other metrics)

Post reply on HN