The UK’s delta surge is collapsing • Hacker News Board

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#171

Post by rajin444 » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:09 PM UTC

billiam wrote: post #137

arbuge wrote: post #90

Most news articles I see focus solely on the number of vaccinated people when estimating how far away countries are from herd immunity, which seems odd to me. Left out in the discussion seem to be the unvaccinated but already infected. As far as I know, prior infection confers at least some degree of immunity. It may also be the case that those inclined to be skeptical of vaccines were also the ones who exposed thems…

I don't know what the point of such conjecture is. Of course we don't know how much immunity comes from infection, and it is quite clear from the spread of delta that we are nowhere near herd immunity in the developed world, even in places like Israel. I had a coronavirus called a cold last year; does that mean I'm immune this year? Unlikely in the long term with COVID. The entire concept of herd immunity may be a mi…

> Usually viruses become more transmissible and less lethal in response to rational behavior in their hosts--but humans are proving we're not rational.

I was under the impression viruses became less lethal because if they became more, they'd kill off their hosts and be less likely to spread.

There's a chance you get some super virus that becomes both more transmissible and lethal, but that is very rare (from what I can see).

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#172

Post by wizzwizz4 » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:09 PM UTC

infamouscow wrote: post #154

billiam wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what the point of such conjecture is. Of course we don't know how much immunity comes from infection, and it is quite clear from the spread of delta that we are nowhere near herd immunity in the developed world, even in places like Israel. I had a coronavirus called a cold last year; does that mean I'm immune this year? Unlikely in the long term with COVID. The entire concept of herd immunity may be a mi…

You're missing the point because the media (and their pharmaceutical advertisers) have framed everything in terms of vaccination, as if the human immune system is incapable of surviving COVID and it's variants. All viruses get less lethal as time goes on, not stronger, despite all the fear porn that has been indoctrinated into the public over the last year and a half.

> All viruses get less lethal as time goes on, not stronger,

This isn't true. Given certain assumptions, it's true on average, but those assumptions don't apply in this case.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#173

Post by christkv » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:09 PM UTC

xrayarx wrote: post #66

christkv wrote: post #65

Same pattern in northern Spain that have very high vaccination rates.

Source please?

Local Spanish newspaper https://www.elcomercio.es/asturias/asturias-acerca-inmunidad...

76% with one dose,66.7% with two doses. Number of cases are going down from about 400 a day a week ago to about 200+ this week per day.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#174

Post by rajin444 » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:10 PM UTC

anthonyu wrote: post #170

infamouscow wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing the point because the media (and their pharmaceutical advertisers) have framed everything in terms of vaccination, as if the human immune system is incapable of surviving COVID and it's variants. All viruses get less lethal as time goes on, not stronger, despite all the fear porn that has been indoctrinated into the public over the last year and a half.

Certain viruses maintained their lethality as time went on. Smallpox was very lethal throughout time. Influenza lethality ebbs throughout history. I don't think we can or should depend on less-lethal, common-cold-like symptoms from Covid-19 at any point.

Is there a reason we shouldn't expect it to behave like most coroanviruses?

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#175

Post by ryandrake » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:10 PM UTC

timr wrote: post #76

anyonecancode wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd imagine not too long after safe and effective vaccines are authorized for children under 12. At that point the majority of those who actively want protection will be able to get it. This is not the same as saying _all_ who want protection will get it, since no vaccine is 100% effective, and some people who would like to be vaccinated will not be able to because of health conditions or other circumstances, but I s…

> I'd imagine not too long after safe and effective vaccines are authorized for children under 12. Children are at exceptionally low risk from Covid. It's time to stop with fear, uncertainty and doubt, and deal with facts. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w In the US, 340 children under 17 have died from Covid. Total. During the same period, 187 have died from the flu, and over 51,000 children have di…

The reason to not want children to get COVID is that they will spread it to their parents and grandparents, who are more vulnerable. It’s not about whether the children will die, which everyone agrees is very low probability.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#176

Post by SideburnsOfDoom » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:11 PM UTC

heavyset_go wrote: post #82

mint2 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t it standard practice to set isolate if one has any highly contagious disease? Like the actual flu? Maybe it’s not a law but it sure is a sensical cultural norm and is just the polite thing to do as well.

At least where I've lived, no, the standard practice is to "work through" the illness and give it to everyone you come in contact with while talking about how it's no big deal because your immune system is strong and you aren't a pussy.

The UK has, or had a strong culture of "it's just a cold, I'm actually fine, I'm Ok to work today, really".

I am hoping that this bad habit has died unmourned during the COVID pandemic. I have no intention of of commuting to an office when I have a cold, and every intention of telling others who have one to go home already.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#177

Post by flir » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:11 PM UTC

infamouscow wrote: post #154

billiam wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what the point of such conjecture is. Of course we don't know how much immunity comes from infection, and it is quite clear from the spread of delta that we are nowhere near herd immunity in the developed world, even in places like Israel. I had a coronavirus called a cold last year; does that mean I'm immune this year? Unlikely in the long term with COVID. The entire concept of herd immunity may be a mi…

You're missing the point because the media (and their pharmaceutical advertisers) have framed everything in terms of vaccination, as if the human immune system is incapable of surviving COVID and it's variants. All viruses get less lethal as time goes on, not stronger, despite all the fear porn that has been indoctrinated into the public over the last year and a half.

> All viruses get less lethal as time goes on

Smallpox.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#178

Post by ericb » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:12 PM UTC

timr wrote: post #81

anyonecancode wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Children are at exceptionally low risk from Covid. Let's hope the die keep rolling up to that result with each succeeding variant!

This is a perfect illustration of the point. In the face of ample documented evidence of the actual risk, your response is to speculate wildly about future events that are completely inconsistent with what we know.

From delta, we clearly have evidence that on a short timeframe a version with _wildly_ enhanced transmissibility has evolved. So speculating that changes will continue is reasonable. Additionally, we know that leaky vaccines and continued spread may cause greater pathogenicity.

> https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...

So that's not wild speculation, it's a well-educated concern.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#179

Post by infamouscow » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:12 PM UTC

wizzwizz4 wrote: post #172

infamouscow wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing the point because the media (and their pharmaceutical advertisers) have framed everything in terms of vaccination, as if the human immune system is incapable of surviving COVID and it's variants. All viruses get less lethal as time goes on, not stronger, despite all the fear porn that has been indoctrinated into the public over the last year and a half.

> All viruses get less lethal as time goes on, not stronger, This isn't true. Given certain assumptions, it's true on average , but those assumptions don't apply in this case.

It's not an assumption, it's obvious to anyone that looks at data rather than of blindly listening to sensationalized media bullshit.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#180

Post by samizdat311 » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 9:12 PM UTC

nostrademons wrote: post #134

arbuge wrote: post #90

Most news articles I see focus solely on the number of vaccinated people when estimating how far away countries are from herd immunity, which seems odd to me. Left out in the discussion seem to be the unvaccinated but already infected. As far as I know, prior infection confers at least some degree of immunity. It may also be the case that those inclined to be skeptical of vaccines were also the ones who exposed thems…

The herd immunity threshold changed with Delta, which I've heard has an R0 of 8-10 (compare 3.5-4.5 for the UK Alpha variant, and about 2.5 for the original strain). Instead of 60% vaccination, you'd need 90%, and will likely overshoot that. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK's cases are now dropping because they reached that threshold, but I doubt the US is there now. Probably Delta will blow through literally all th…

These are very good points. I'd add that herd immunity isn't a clearly defined threshold, either. It's the point at which the effective R in a population is much below 1 you get, exponential decay might take a few months or even a few years to get down to elimination.

The current dip in the UK is trending toward the former. But it's further complicated by the fact that levels of immunity in the population will continue to oscillate up and down. (Nevermind that once schools open in September, 20% of the population with relatively sparse vaccination will be mixing in large cohorts).

Another factor in herd immunity is vaccine efficacy - which is somewhere between 86% and 95% for the mRNA vaccines (and will continue to change). A herd immunity threshold of 90% presupposes a vaccine with 100% efficacy - when your vaccines are not that effective (not to mention, losing effectiveness over time) it bumps the threshold even higher.

Right now, much of the population has some level of "sterilising immunity" from the first round of vaccines and previous infection (i.e. having enough circulating antibodies to potentially block symptomatic infection and transmission). But everything we know about existing respiratory viruses (and indications so far this year) suggest antibodies will wane.

Of course, indications are most people will come away with robust cell-based immunity. (Those plucky T-cells and B-cells). But eradication for the UK looks *very* close to impossible given the near-total-abandonment of public health measures recently.