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The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

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Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#51

Post by ls612 »

mint2 wrote: post #44
goalieca wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Starting 2 weeks from now, you won't even have to self-isolate if you test positive for COVID-19. This is a loaded question, but since covid is and will be endemic, when do we get on with our lives and start facing the mountains of other public health issues? It seems like our vaccination effort was extremely successful and had an amazing effect and there isn’t likely to be any radical new intervention for years to…

Isn’t it standard practice to set isolate if one has any highly contagious disease? Like the actual flu? Maybe it’s not a law but it sure is a sensical cultural norm and is just the polite thing to do as well.

Not for 10-14 days!! To the extent most people care they either stay home until they feel better or they try to power through it.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#52

Post by simonswords82 »

bigbizisverywyz wrote: post #40
squarefoot wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably both. We should remember what was the 1st approach to the Covid problem by Johnson (that is, well over one year ago): he wanted to achieve herd immunity without having enough vaccines or not having them at all, and initially there were no imposed lockdowns or infection prevention rules. The point is that along the extremely high death toll caused by that approach, a huge percentage of people over there might…

>he wanted to achieve herd immunity without having enough vaccines or not having them at all Instead he managed to brew an exciting new variant, which is what every health official was warning against. And I'm guessing that unless the majority of the population are rapidly inoculated then exciting new strains could constantly evolve until we have something truly nasty.

Sounds like you want to pontificate just to have a moan off about the PM.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#53

Post by newsyyswen »

runawaybottle wrote: post #50

Do we have conclusive numbers on how long these vaccines last? I’m reading that Pfizer lasts about 6 months? There’s no way there won’t be a surge again next summer if that’s the case.

There are no conclusive numbers on how long they last, because there has not been a significant drop-off in efficacy yet.

There is some evidence that booster shots after 6 months can provide better even better protection than the second shot after 3-4 weeks, but it's not clear whether they will be necessary yet, especially when so much of the world is still desperate to get the first two shots in peoples' arms.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#54

Post by makomk »

3dbrows wrote: post #47
bigbizisverywyz wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did we not see the same effect last year (probably for the reasons you mentioned)? Numbers declined in summer, but then massively rose again in Oct-Nov. I think this Autumn will reveal whether the vaccinations are giving us the protection needed to gradually open up society again. For my part I really hope it does, as it will also encourage other countries to do the same and give the vaccination campaign a worldwide…

Let’s hope the peak just gone is the last big spike. In the final analysis I imagine the British public’s _willingness_ to get the jab will be seen as an enormous success factor, on top of the vaccine itself’s efficacy. This willingness merits study. High social trust of the NHS, historic common understanding of vaccines and everyone knowing someone affected by the virus all play their part. As an aside, I believe th…

The UK government definitely seems to consider the British public's willingness to get vaccinated to be one of the key parts of the success story, from what I've seen. I will also say that their handling of issues like the AstraZeneca blood clotting issue has been really good compared to the shitshows elsewhere - careful, measured, with really clear communication about what they know and why it justifies the decisions about whether to vaccinate people with it.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#55

Post by tomatocracy »

a_humean wrote: post #30
ddek wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which ONS data are you referring to? The currently published data indicates the wave has at least plateaued, as I read it, in all but the youngest age groups.

They are talking about the survey data, which doesn't rely upon the normal testing regime. They randomly contact and test individuals irrespective of their symptoms status, which is different from the normal testing regime that gets reported daily. I believe its a 20k sample size. The survey takes a lot longer time compile Most recent summary: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... Most recen…

In particular, it's worth noting that the ONS survey tries to estimate an answer to the question "in the given time period, what proportion of the population would have tested positive?"

Because people tend to continue to test positive for a reasonable period of time after they are first infected, this should be a lagging indicator of any peak in new infections having occurred.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#56

Post by nicoburns »

ls612 wrote: post #51
mint2 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t it standard practice to set isolate if one has any highly contagious disease? Like the actual flu? Maybe it’s not a law but it sure is a sensical cultural norm and is just the polite thing to do as well.

Not for 10-14 days!! To the extent most people care they either stay home until they feel better or they try to power through it.

If you have actual flu then it wouldn't be uncommon to be ill for that long

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#57

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

mjw1007 wrote: post #21
jjgreen wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The collapse (unexpected by almost everyone) happened after "freedom day", when masks were no longer mandatory and it became legal to stand at the bar in a pub. Probably co-incidence.

More likely the causality goes the other way: if the models hadn't predicted (as they did) that cases would peak around that time, "freedom day" would have been scheduled for later.

That's not how it happened: the date was set well in advance, and the drop at that time was not predicted.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#58

Post by bostik »

tsywke44 wrote: post #36
tsywke44 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Night clubs opened and were PACKED, a lot of young people were unvaccinated, causing hundreds of superspreader events every night for a few weeks. The % of total population who actually visits nightclubs is pretty low, so it took like a monh for this segment to hit herd immunity basically

Also lots of previously vaccinated people were exposed, but didn’t get infected. Doesn’t mean their immune system did nothing though. I’d wager a lot of UK population basically got an ”organic 3rd vaccine dose”. My prediction is they have probably the highest immunity rates in the world atm

> a lot of UK population basically got an ”organic 3rd vaccine dose”.

Isn't that how the vaccination regime is supposed to work, actually? With two jabs in, contracting Covid still comes with something like 4%..20% hit rate.[ß] However, with two jabs the risk of hospitalisation is mercifully low, and roughly half of the cases are asymptomatic.

So instead of vaccinated people overloading the NHS, when they do get unlucky, they are much more likely to get through with only mild symptoms. For majority that "organic 3rd dose" works as a booster shot. They can still infect others, though...

NB. As far as I know, there are no good studies on how Long Covid manifests in a vaccinated population. I think the working assumption is that very mild symptomatic Covid also ends up with less severe Long Covid, but have heard of no data to back that up.

ß: Depending on the study, the vaccine in question and the variant. IIRC 2xPfizer provides ~88% protection against Delta, 95%+ against earlier non-Beta variants; 2xAstraZeneca provides 60%+ protection against Delta, 90%+ against non-Betas.

Disclosure: UK resident, with two jabs.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#59

Post by brundolf »

goalieca wrote: post #34
0xTJ wrote: post #20

This gives me hope for Canada, where I am, won't face too many issues even as we slowly start to tick up from the bottom since major reopening happened, allowing indoor dining etc. In the last week, we've passed the UK in number of fully vaccinated people, but that's going to be slowing down as we start running of people who got their first dose during the big surge in shots here. Unfortunately, at 64% of the total p…

> Starting 2 weeks from now, you won't even have to self-isolate if you test positive for COVID-19. This is a loaded question, but since covid is and will be endemic, when do we get on with our lives and start facing the mountains of other public health issues? It seems like our vaccination effort was extremely successful and had an amazing effect and there isn’t likely to be any radical new intervention for years to…

Is it inconceivable that we could have an "updated" RNA vaccine for the new variant in a matter of months? We get a new flu shot every year

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#60

Post by anyonecancode »

goalieca wrote: post #34
0xTJ wrote: post #20

This gives me hope for Canada, where I am, won't face too many issues even as we slowly start to tick up from the bottom since major reopening happened, allowing indoor dining etc. In the last week, we've passed the UK in number of fully vaccinated people, but that's going to be slowing down as we start running of people who got their first dose during the big surge in shots here. Unfortunately, at 64% of the total p…

> Starting 2 weeks from now, you won't even have to self-isolate if you test positive for COVID-19. This is a loaded question, but since covid is and will be endemic, when do we get on with our lives and start facing the mountains of other public health issues? It seems like our vaccination effort was extremely successful and had an amazing effect and there isn’t likely to be any radical new intervention for years to…

I'd imagine not too long after safe and effective vaccines are authorized for children under 12. At that point the majority of those who actively want protection will be able to get it. This is not the same as saying _all_ who want protection will get it, since no vaccine is 100% effective, and some people who would like to be vaccinated will not be able to because of health conditions or other circumstances, but I suspect society as a whole will decide "close enough."

I'm not saying I necessarily agree with that -- I think the number of "people who want protection but can't get it" will be uncomfortably large -- but this is my guess of when society as a whole will decide to move on.

Honestly, I think this means the future looks like the present, but more so. The places that will be hit the hardest will be more working class and in places that under invest in health and welfare. That's already the current trend, certainly in the US -- look at where medicaid expansion following the ACA has and hasn't happened, for instance, and who has access to decent health care and who doesn't. In some ways I think we're lurching back to previous centuries, where diseases like cholera, dysentry, typhus, etc were endemic, and could certainly affect the wealthy and professional classes, but were primarily scourges of the working class.

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