The UK’s delta surge is collapsing • Hacker News Board

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#21

Post by mjw1007 » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 1:58 PM UTC

jjgreen wrote: post #4

Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

The collapse (unexpected by almost everyone) happened after "freedom day", when masks were no longer mandatory and it became legal to stand at the bar in a pub. Probably co-incidence.

More likely the causality goes the other way: if the models hadn't predicted (as they did) that cases would peak around that time, "freedom day" would have been scheduled for later.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#22

Post by JetSetWilly » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 1:59 PM UTC

jtbayly wrote: post #9

JetSetWilly wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably schools and universities being closed. I'd support this by noting that the numbers in Scotland surged earlier then started declining earlier (where universities and schools go on summer holidays weeks before England). When English schools later broke up for summer, numbers there started declining too. So no doubt numbers will start going up again when school returns, and will do so first in Scotland - as the…

But if it rose earlier and fell earlier, the simplest explanation is simply that the course of the disease was... earlier there, isn't it?

It is possible, but there's still large cohorts of the population (ie under 18s) who have not had the virus and are not vaccinated, you would expect that when they go back to large scale mixing in schools together that transmission will increase among them and case numbers will go up.

And this isn't really an issue so long as the overwhelming majority of the old and vulnerable are vaccinated. But there still the potential for scary looking case numbers but not so much death numbers.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#23

Post by joelschw » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 2:07 PM UTC

Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

The national football team also did really well in the Euro competition - this forced a lot of drunk people indoors and onto public transport.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#24

Post by jtbayly » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 2:14 PM UTC

mjw1007 wrote: post #21

jjgreen wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The collapse (unexpected by almost everyone) happened after "freedom day", when masks were no longer mandatory and it became legal to stand at the bar in a pub. Probably co-incidence.

More likely the causality goes the other way: if the models hadn't predicted (as they did) that cases would peak around that time, "freedom day" would have been scheduled for later.

Models predicted this? Link, please.

From this article:

> “Something strange is happening in Britain,” the Washington Post declared this week. “COVID cases are plummeting instead of soaring.” A few weeks ago, when the country’s new daily-case total was around 60,000, the prominent British epidemiologist and government adviser Neil Ferguson declared that a rise to 100,000 a day was inevitable, and that 200,000 a day was possible. The country is now at 27,000 and falling.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#25

Post by ddek » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 2:32 PM UTC

monooso wrote: post #13

The ONS regularly tests a random selection of people. Their results typically trail the daily infection numbers by two weeks. Notably, the most recent ONS samples demonstrated a sharp rise in cases. The suggestion is that cases are actually surging, but most are now either asymptomatic or at least very mild, and thus not reported. I guess we'll find out shortly whether that's the case.

Which ONS data are you referring to? The currently published data indicates the wave has at least plateaued, as I read it, in all but the youngest age groups.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#26

Post by coding123 » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 2:37 PM UTC

The future is N95 masks. Even if you decide not to, for the rest of your life you will see people wearing them at everyday places.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#27

Post by ddek » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 2:38 PM UTC

Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

Tentative signs the virus has burned out, either through infections or vaccinations. The wave has been entirely confined to the younger age brackets who are far less vaccinated.[1]

Being in central London right now, through anecdotal evidence I don't think we've suddenly become less sociable.

- [1] UK infections grouped by age. School years 6, 7, 11, and 12 are ages 11, 12, 17, and 18 respectively. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#28

Post by squarefoot » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 2:40 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #5

Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

Lots of people either being vaccinated or infected seems like it would play a big role.

Probably both. We should remember what was the 1st approach to the Covid problem by Johnson (that is, well over one year ago): he wanted to achieve herd immunity without having enough vaccines or not having them at all, and initially there were no imposed lockdowns or infection prevention rules. The point is that along the extremely high death toll caused by that approach, a huge percentage of people over there might have caught the virus without symptoms, therefore becoming immune to a 2nd infection or at least immune to nasty symptoms. So it's entirely possible that the herd immunity was eventually achieved, although many, including me, would agree the price to pay has been not fair.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#29

Post by coding123 » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 2:40 PM UTC

GuB-42 wrote: post #16

jjgreen wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The collapse (unexpected by almost everyone) happened after "freedom day", when masks were no longer mandatory and it became legal to stand at the bar in a pub. Probably co-incidence.

It has to be a coincidence. It happened almost the exact day, maybe even a little earlier. It should take about a week to start seeing the effect of a change in policy. From incubation time to testing to results. Usually, we count two weeks to be sure.

Also people ditch the mask when they are "close enough" to the day. I saw the masks drop as early as a month before that date. I really don't think 100% of the shoppers in my grocery stores were vaccinated.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#30

Post by a_humean » Mon, Aug 02, 2021, 2:46 PM UTC

ddek wrote: post #25

monooso wrote: post #13

The ONS regularly tests a random selection of people. Their results typically trail the daily infection numbers by two weeks. Notably, the most recent ONS samples demonstrated a sharp rise in cases. The suggestion is that cases are actually surging, but most are now either asymptomatic or at least very mild, and thus not reported. I guess we'll find out shortly whether that's the case.

Which ONS data are you referring to? The currently published data indicates the wave has at least plateaued, as I read it, in all but the youngest age groups.

They are talking about the survey data, which doesn't rely upon the normal testing regime. They randomly contact and test individuals irrespective of their symptoms status, which is different from the normal testing regime that gets reported daily. I believe its a 20k sample size. The survey takes a lot longer time compile

Most recent summary: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...

Most recent data: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...

Methods: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...