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The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

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Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#151

Post by jkhdigital »

glorppe wrote: post #121
jkhdigital wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this study the vaccine reduced Covid-19 infection rates by like 90%, and essentially eliminated severe cases. This is great! But the same number of people died in each group. So vaccines do not reduce Covid-19 mortality, period. Does this mean vaccines are a waste of time? No, of course not! It just means we should be precise and correct in the claims we make based on statistics, and not fudge them to say things t…

I don’t follow the logical leap. It’s clear the paper doesn’t demonstrate a difference, you’re right. I do think it’s disingenuous to say that the vaccine categorically doesn’t prevent deaths, if it can prevent infections that would lead to deaths, that’s a good outcome. Additionally, the real world performance in the general population is showing a massive divergence in deaths and cases in elderly populations after…

Did I categorically say that the vaccine doesn't prevent deaths? I simply cited a study which shows no effect, and scolded the journalist for making a claim that doesn't seem to have solid scientific support. I'm not making a statement about vaccines, I'm making a statement about journalists playing fast and loose with science.

> That may be from some other variable and not vaccines, but I’m not sure that I would be able to suggest an alternative cause.

This is why we do science. Your lack of imagination about causal relationships is not evidence for or against any particular causal relationship.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#152

Post by [deleted] »

nostrademons wrote: post #134
arbuge wrote: post #90

Most news articles I see focus solely on the number of vaccinated people when estimating how far away countries are from herd immunity, which seems odd to me. Left out in the discussion seem to be the unvaccinated but already infected. As far as I know, prior infection confers at least some degree of immunity. It may also be the case that those inclined to be skeptical of vaccines were also the ones who exposed thems…

The herd immunity threshold changed with Delta, which I've heard has an R0 of 8-10 (compare 3.5-4.5 for the UK Alpha variant, and about 2.5 for the original strain). Instead of 60% vaccination, you'd need 90%, and will likely overshoot that. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK's cases are now dropping because they reached that threshold, but I doubt the US is there now. Probably Delta will blow through literally all th…

[deleted]

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#153

Post by munificent »

neither_color wrote: post #64
0xTJ wrote: post #20

This gives me hope for Canada, where I am, won't face too many issues even as we slowly start to tick up from the bottom since major reopening happened, allowing indoor dining etc. In the last week, we've passed the UK in number of fully vaccinated people, but that's going to be slowing down as we start running of people who got their first dose during the big surge in shots here. Unfortunately, at 64% of the total p…

Since when is Texas a pejorative? By itself it would be a world top-15 economy, and its pandemic performance was not an outlier or exceptional. If anything it, along with Florida, demonstrated that extremely strict lockdowns don't correlate to better outcomes. Nothing like Alberta.

The death rate in Florida is 180/100k [1]. That's pretty close to the national average. If the entire US had gone like Florida, then instead of 613k deaths, we'd have 590k. So, yes, Florida was better than average despite not having a severe lockdown. But Florida also has fairly separated populations: a lot of old people very likely to get vaccinated, and a lot of young people very likely to survive.

For comparison, Oregon had a pretty hard lockdown. Its death rate is 68/100k. If the entire US had that same death rate, 390,000 Americans would still be alive today.

If you look at the data, it is clear that lockdown is not the only thing affecting death rate. But it also seems pretty obvious that social distancing did have a significant impact on the number of people who died. There are thousands of Americans that are dead today because people wanted to go to a party, or a restaurant, or a wedding.

[1]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covi...

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#154

Post by infamouscow »

billiam wrote: post #137
arbuge wrote: post #90

Most news articles I see focus solely on the number of vaccinated people when estimating how far away countries are from herd immunity, which seems odd to me. Left out in the discussion seem to be the unvaccinated but already infected. As far as I know, prior infection confers at least some degree of immunity. It may also be the case that those inclined to be skeptical of vaccines were also the ones who exposed thems…

I don't know what the point of such conjecture is. Of course we don't know how much immunity comes from infection, and it is quite clear from the spread of delta that we are nowhere near herd immunity in the developed world, even in places like Israel. I had a coronavirus called a cold last year; does that mean I'm immune this year? Unlikely in the long term with COVID. The entire concept of herd immunity may be a mi…

You're missing the point because the media (and their pharmaceutical advertisers) have framed everything in terms of vaccination, as if the human immune system is incapable of surviving COVID and it's variants.

All viruses get less lethal as time goes on, not stronger, despite all the fear porn that has been indoctrinated into the public over the last year and a half.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#155

Post by sharken »

mariodiana wrote: post #106
neves wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a lot of evidence about what worked what didn't work. Dozens of countries and well organized societies responded well to the pandemic.

I remember reading that the deaths in countries corresponded pretty tightly with obesity levels in the population. If that's true, that throws lots of "evidence" right out the window. Edit: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-obesit...

This BBC story speculates that Delta became the main variant in part due to the cold weather. But I'm not sure any one factor can be singled out.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57489740

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#156

Post by mensetmanusman »

nostrademons wrote: post #134
arbuge wrote: post #90

Most news articles I see focus solely on the number of vaccinated people when estimating how far away countries are from herd immunity, which seems odd to me. Left out in the discussion seem to be the unvaccinated but already infected. As far as I know, prior infection confers at least some degree of immunity. It may also be the case that those inclined to be skeptical of vaccines were also the ones who exposed thems…

The herd immunity threshold changed with Delta, which I've heard has an R0 of 8-10 (compare 3.5-4.5 for the UK Alpha variant, and about 2.5 for the original strain). Instead of 60% vaccination, you'd need 90%, and will likely overshoot that. It wouldn't surprise me if the UK's cases are now dropping because they reached that threshold, but I doubt the US is there now. Probably Delta will blow through literally all th…

“ Instead of 60% vaccination, you'd need 90%, and will likely overshoot that.”

60% (Vaccinated + Previously Infected)

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#157

Post by frumper »

mint2 wrote: post #44
goalieca wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Starting 2 weeks from now, you won't even have to self-isolate if you test positive for COVID-19. This is a loaded question, but since covid is and will be endemic, when do we get on with our lives and start facing the mountains of other public health issues? It seems like our vaccination effort was extremely successful and had an amazing effect and there isn’t likely to be any radical new intervention for years to…

Isn’t it standard practice to set isolate if one has any highly contagious disease? Like the actual flu? Maybe it’s not a law but it sure is a sensical cultural norm and is just the polite thing to do as well.

Some kids NEVER miss a day of school. I've known many people proud of that. I've seen that attitude in adults as well.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#158

Post by nradov »

mattlondon wrote: post #120
bostik wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a lot of UK population basically got an ”organic 3rd vaccine dose”. Isn't that how the vaccination regime is supposed to work, actually? With two jabs in, contracting Covid still comes with something like 4%..20% hit rate.[ß] However, with two jabs the risk of hospitalisation is mercifully low, and roughly half of the cases are asymptomatic. So instead of vaccinated people overloading the NHS, when they do get unlu…

As far as I know, long covid is directly related to how sick you get. you hear all these stories of people being bed bound for a week or more, high fever, struggling to breathe, etc etc. I'd think it sounds quite a lot like those people were really rather ill. I don't think people should expect to go back to running marathons or whatever a week after fighting to survive It's the same for flu and other major viral inf…

Right many types of viral infections can cause post viral fatigue syndrome. This is nothing really new, it's just getting more attention now because of the sudden surge of cases.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3063394/

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#159

Post by microtherion »

timr wrote: post #76
anyonecancode wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd imagine not too long after safe and effective vaccines are authorized for children under 12. At that point the majority of those who actively want protection will be able to get it. This is not the same as saying _all_ who want protection will get it, since no vaccine is 100% effective, and some people who would like to be vaccinated will not be able to because of health conditions or other circumstances, but I s…

> I'd imagine not too long after safe and effective vaccines are authorized for children under 12. Children are at exceptionally low risk from Covid. It's time to stop with fear, uncertainty and doubt, and deal with facts. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w In the US, 340 children under 17 have died from Covid. Total. During the same period, 187 have died from the flu, and over 51,000 children have di…

> Children are at exceptionally low risk from Covid.

Low risk of death, yes. But still a substantial risk of long lasting severe effects: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

A complete loss of sense of taste, or chronic fatigue are both entirely possible outcomes with children, and at this time, it's not clear at all how long these effects last.

Conversely, the effects of myocarditis, while unpleasant, are fairly well understood (and at least one physician I've spoken to was of the opinion that the vaccine related risk was overstated, as the base rate in that age group was bound to be higher than reported, due to the mild nature of most cases, so some of the elevated rates appear to be due to closer post-vaccination scrutiny).

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#160

Post by lordloki »

majormajor wrote: post #112
timr wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a perfect illustration of the point. In the face of ample documented evidence of the actual risk, your response is to speculate wildly about future events that are completely inconsistent with what we know.

The "give up and let it be endemic forever" defeatism attitude appears very statistically foolish. It's likely, yes, but why on earth would we want to just accept that? The flu, for instance, bounces around in severity and kills tens of thousands per year in the US. Few of those are kids, so what? If we're happy to let the virus continue to transmit in any populations, it'll change in various ways. One year a variant…

Is it defeatism or just accepting reality? What are the chances that Covid19 is ever globally eradicated?
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