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Why is China smashing its tech industry?

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Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think there is such a name. But you're on the right track about it being difficult to distinguish between value and rent-seeking. One thing to note is that governments themselves are, by definition, rent-seekers. This is inherent to how a government - a monopoly on the legitimate use of violence within an area - works. Once you are sovereign within a territory you can extract rents in the form of taxes, and i…

Excluding the direct political arguments, is there hope for a clean way to distinguish these types of activities: * Someone who literally figures out a new, cheap way to make a drug which cures a real disease * Someone who, as soon as they get the right to, imposes license fees which serve no valid purpose, and profits in status & wealth from these new duties.

No, because they're the same thing. We pay for inventions with rent seeking behavior. One person's justified license fees are another person's patent or copyright trolling.

The original idea with these sorts of things, at least in the US, is that we'd have administrative procedures and court adjudication to limit the harm that could come from that behavior. In practice, the administrative procedures are only a bar to the least knowledgeable plaintiffs, and the mere threat of litigation over a marginally valid claim is often enough to coerce most defendants into a settlement. Nobody wants to actually litigate whether or not a patent is obvious, or a copyright owner has been surreptitiously seeding their own works on BitTorrent.

There's also a question about whether or not your two examples are, in practice, always different cases. What if the person in the first example decides to not license their drug at all, so they can do the manufacturing themselves and control the price? That would be identical behavior to the second example... but they still made a useful invention. They're the same person.

You could legally restrict "non-practicing entities" from enforcing patent rights, but that's only a subset of all rent-seeking patent owners. Remember: the entire point of the system is to enable rent-seeking in lieu of up-front payments.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#242
post #40

> There are certainly those in America who believe that Facebook and Google produce little of value relative to the profit they rake in; maybe China’s leaders, for reasons that will remain forever opaque to us, have simply reached the same conclusion. Arguably, capturing most of your country's top talent with absurd salaries and putting them to work on world-critical challenges like... how to generate more revenue fr…

I think some zero-autonomy zero-respect enterprise IT drudgery is more likely than the space program, if we didn’t have access to these “absurd” wages. Which are, coincidentally, just about enough to own homes for our families within range of our offices.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “we must recognize the fundamental importance of the real economy… and never deindustrialize.” This hasn't been really put to the test yet, has it? What's the cost of labor delta compared to the places where outsourcing from China would be attractive currently?

I think that's the hubris China is currently having: as they've grown stricly because of the reliance of export-led growth, they are now dependent on the global economic order as much as the US is (for its import-led growth). And the ones that initially built the factories in China, can always pack up and move to a different country. So global corporations are now kind of "cycling through" a list of alternate underde…

> I think that's the hubris China is currently having: as they've grown stricly because of the reliance of export-led growth, they are now dependent on the global economic order as much as the US is (for its import-led growth).

Honestly, I think the PRC's hubris is more than matched by the US's (and Western world's). They're still overconfident from the collapse of the Soviet Union, and seem to think the chips will inevitably fall on their side, so they still engage with a large amount of wishful thinking.

> And the ones that initially built the factories in China, can always pack up and move to a different country. So global corporations are now kind of "cycling through" a list of alternate underdeveloped countries to build factories in, and keep going until the options are all exhausted.

I'm not so sure...

1) I think it's ultimately the PRC's goal to have domestic champions replace those global corporations in the global economy (e.g. Apple declines as Huawei ascends)

2) I don't think the PRC is as stupid as the US was, and will not allow those companies to "pack up and move" to the degree it's disruptive to their ability to provide an unmatched manufacturing supply chain.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#244
post #53
post #11

> China may simply see things differently. It’s possible that the Chinese government has decided that the profits of companies like Alibaba and Tencent come more from rents than from actual value added Excellent observation, and I hope, for China's sake, that this is the reason. The United States is likely in for a long-term rude awakening when it finally realizes that an economy predicated on negative-value-add acti…

Hijacking this comment a bit, but I haven't watched real TV in a very long time but have been tuning in again because of the Olympics and Jeopardy. I'm seeing an incredible amount of ads for companies that let you gamble real money on your phone. Sometimes it's back to back to back to back commercials for online app casinos. This seems really dangerous and a sign of a tragically unhealthy and predatory economy - I ca…

You watched real tv on your computer or real tv/cable tv? If on your computer... maybe jeaopardy viewers are more likely to gamble? I don't recall seeing any gambling commercials while watching the olympics on hulu live tv (am on the live tv and no ads bundle which for some reason includes lots of ads).

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#245
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re giving a lot of benefit of the doubt to the dictatorship. Establishing complete control over emerging power structures (tech industry) is more likely to be their goal.

We don’t actually know why anyone in power does anything. One thing I do know is we as the West need to figure out how to come together and defend democratic and liberal values, as without them we are seriously lost. We should start by not giving any more money and technology to a Chinese state that clearly do not have our best interests at heart. I think the west is in real danger of just falling apart over the next…

What I do notice is that the Chinese "rulers" seem to be more concerned about long-term well-being of its people, rather than trolling and performative assholery on Twitter.

You might describe it as a dictatorship, but it's more data-driven than you might suspect. The Chinese keep the pulse on decisions they make, and if it's unpopular - it's gone. Of course there is a line - you can't go head-on against the Party and call them out directly. Compare this situation here, where we are trying to patch up our infrastructure and instead have to deal with a collection of spectacular douches in Congress, propagandizing against science to such an extent that our top epidemiologist has to get a security detail.

Who would you bet on in this movie?

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#246
post #53
post #11

> China may simply see things differently. It’s possible that the Chinese government has decided that the profits of companies like Alibaba and Tencent come more from rents than from actual value added Excellent observation, and I hope, for China's sake, that this is the reason. The United States is likely in for a long-term rude awakening when it finally realizes that an economy predicated on negative-value-add acti…

Hijacking this comment a bit, but I haven't watched real TV in a very long time but have been tuning in again because of the Olympics and Jeopardy. I'm seeing an incredible amount of ads for companies that let you gamble real money on your phone. Sometimes it's back to back to back to back commercials for online app casinos. This seems really dangerous and a sign of a tragically unhealthy and predatory economy - I ca…

If you look at Twitch there are plenty of big streamers spending their times on websites like Stake which is literally just an unregulated BTC casino.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe the headline's a bit misleading, but what you're saying is almost exactly what the article is talking about. (The article immediately refutes the notion of "smashing its tech industry" right away)

The article is mostly weird kremlinology of what the chinese leadership are up to. Which seems unnecessary if they're widely publishing 5 year plans that tell you what they're doing. Similar to Tesla's secret plan to produce cheaper and cheaper vehicles at larger scale, the boring truth isn't a big click winner.

Most people, especially in the west, aren’t reading Chinese 5 year plans very closely.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#248

China is not "smashing its tech industry". It's cracking down on private Internet companies that acquired too much power through network effects. This is completely consistent with CCP doctrine. Anything that central has to be state-owned. Xi declared this year that while digitization is important, “we must recognize the fundamental importance of the real economy… and never deindustrialize.” Right. China, remember, h…

I'm still reading up so looking for resources. What's a good introduction that talks about how the Chinese state is looking at individual choices? 5 year planning makes sense but the implementation is key (India for example had similar planning processes). Is there writing on how Xi or the CCP thinks about incorrect choices in the planning or a fail-safe that prevents what happened to the Soviet Union? Have they ever talked about getting things wrong?

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#249
"Fake-tech" industry, more precisely. If you can read Chinese, you know people in China percepts whether the company is a real-tech company based on whether they have been sanctioned by US. And most of Chinese think the fake-techs consumes too much resource and contributes too little, the more resources should be put on the real-tech companies.

Re: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

#250

This probably isn't a popular opinion, but I think China may be genuinely right here. Innovation requires solving genuinely hard technical problems. Consumer Internet is, in general, not that. I genuinely hope that America makes a similar shift in it's own VC sector.

You can broaden that statement and say that almost all the CRUD-app bullshit which devs get employed for these days isn't that, either. I've worked as a dev for insurance, B2B fintech, and athletic wear companies. They're all doing trivial CRUD problems behind the scenes, where the only real challenge is dealing with asinine management and organizational issues.

And even if the consumer internet problems are technically challenging, like problems of scale for Facebook, you can argue pretty easily that solving them to increase Facebook's power and profitability is a net negative for society.

For China to simply say "no" to that and invest more heavily in the physical economy is... a smart move, by my estimation. It tracks with what I'd do in my "king for a day" fantasy. Not that I think they're out there building a utopia - they're still a repressive regime - but they're wisely avoiding a class of problems that the West has jumped into headfirst.

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