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The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

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Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#41

Post by smorgusofborg »

ddek wrote: post #27
Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

Tentative signs the virus has burned out, either through infections or vaccinations. The wave has been entirely confined to the younger age brackets who are far less vaccinated.[1] Being in central London right now, through anecdotal evidence I don't think we've suddenly become less sociable. - [1] UK infections grouped by age. School years 6, 7, 11, and 12 are ages 11, 12, 17, and 18 respectively. https://www.ons.go…

The Massachusetts study is rather confusing about delta and vaccination, but I think it emphasizes that demographics of who is socializing is skewed. So it might have burned out among those in the nightlife and still be highly dangerous among pensioners.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#42

Post by Imnimo »

tsywke44 wrote: post #37
Imnimo wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really see how the level of immunity could be low enough in June to allow rapid growth, and then suddenly be high enough in mid-July to cause rapid decline. Wouldn't we expect a population close to herd immunity to see slow growth, and a population just over herd immunity to see a slow decline?

If 70% of your population is vaccinated, it doesnt mean the virus spreads 70% slower. It instead means that there are 20 million potential virus hosts in the UK instead of 67m. Way more than the population of lots of EU countries.

I think it does mean that the virus spreads slower (although the exact amount will also depend on factors like how vaccinated people are distributed among the population). Whereas in an unvaccinated population, each infected person might spread the virus to (say) five others, in a 70% vaccinated population, on average 3.5 of those others would be vaccinated, so the virus would only spread to 1.5 others. This gives a slower rate of growth. Once that rate of growth falls below 1, herd immunity is achieved. When you are close to herd immunity, that rate should be just a little above 1, leading to slow but positive growth.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#43

Post by M2Ys4U »

joelschw wrote: post #23
Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

The national football team also did really well in the Euro competition - this forced a lot of drunk people indoors and onto public transport.

And also in to pubs...

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#44

Post by mint2 »

goalieca wrote: post #34
0xTJ wrote: post #20

This gives me hope for Canada, where I am, won't face too many issues even as we slowly start to tick up from the bottom since major reopening happened, allowing indoor dining etc. In the last week, we've passed the UK in number of fully vaccinated people, but that's going to be slowing down as we start running of people who got their first dose during the big surge in shots here. Unfortunately, at 64% of the total p…

> Starting 2 weeks from now, you won't even have to self-isolate if you test positive for COVID-19. This is a loaded question, but since covid is and will be endemic, when do we get on with our lives and start facing the mountains of other public health issues? It seems like our vaccination effort was extremely successful and had an amazing effect and there isn’t likely to be any radical new intervention for years to…

Isn’t it standard practice to set isolate if one has any highly contagious disease? Like the actual flu? Maybe it’s not a law but it sure is a sensical cultural norm and is just the polite thing to do as well.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#45

Post by jtbayly »

mjw1007 wrote: post #31
jtbayly wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Models predicted this? Link, please. From this article: > “Something strange is happening in Britain,” the Washington Post declared this week. “COVID cases are plummeting instead of soaring.” A few weeks ago, when the country’s new daily-case total was around 60,000, the prominent British epidemiologist and government adviser Neil Ferguson declared that a rise to 100,000 a day was inevitable, and that 200,000 a day w…

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases model: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... That's showing hospitalisations rather than cases, and most scenarios show the peak in early August. Hospitalisations lag cases, and it looks like early August will be right: we haven't seen the peak yet.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions...

Peak was several days ago.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#46

Post by mjw1007 »

jtbayly wrote: post #45
mjw1007 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases model: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... That's showing hospitalisations rather than cases, and most scenarios show the peak in early August. Hospitalisations lag cases, and it looks like early August will be right: we haven't seen the peak yet.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions... Peak was several days ago.

It's bit early to be sure yet (the UK fall in cases has slowed greatly in the last week), but if that turns out to be true "the models predicted that cases would peak around that time" would still be OK for the purposes of this thread: the point is that it's unsurprising that cases began to fall within a week or two of "freedom day".

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#47

Post by 3dbrows »

bigbizisverywyz wrote: post #38
3dbrows wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The staggered school return times you mention could be one factor (as could better weather resulting in outdoor socialising instead of indoor). The effect when schools return (~2 weeks from now in Scotland) might be muted however as hundreds of thousands more vaccinations will have been done in the parent-age population. In Scotland, for example, over 90% of adults have received the first dose, and 72% the second (im…

Did we not see the same effect last year (probably for the reasons you mentioned)? Numbers declined in summer, but then massively rose again in Oct-Nov. I think this Autumn will reveal whether the vaccinations are giving us the protection needed to gradually open up society again. For my part I really hope it does, as it will also encourage other countries to do the same and give the vaccination campaign a worldwide…

Let’s hope the peak just gone is the last big spike. In the final analysis I imagine the British public’s _willingness_ to get the jab will be seen as an enormous success factor, on top of the vaccine itself’s efficacy. This willingness merits study. High social trust of the NHS, historic common understanding of vaccines and everyone knowing someone affected by the virus all play their part. As an aside, I believe this to have been the NHS’ finest hour, and in future “the pandemic” will replace “the war” as the lynchpin reference point in time, as it were.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#48

Post by ddek »

wrboyce wrote: post #33
ddek wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tentative signs the virus has burned out, either through infections or vaccinations. The wave has been entirely confined to the younger age brackets who are far less vaccinated.[1] Being in central London right now, through anecdotal evidence I don't think we've suddenly become less sociable. - [1] UK infections grouped by age. School years 6, 7, 11, and 12 are ages 11, 12, 17, and 18 respectively. https://www.ons.go…

I don’t think those ages are right (the maths do not follow, so I’m almost certain they are not). In y11 you turn 16, not 17. https://www.gov.uk/national-curriculum

Your right, I forgot about y13 being the last year. Y11 is GCSE year which ends at 16. I’m not sure why the the age brackets don’t go up to Y13, when school ends.
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