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The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

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Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#31

Post by mjw1007 »

jtbayly wrote: post #24
mjw1007 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More likely the causality goes the other way: if the models hadn't predicted (as they did) that cases would peak around that time, "freedom day" would have been scheduled for later.

Models predicted this? Link, please. From this article: > “Something strange is happening in Britain,” the Washington Post declared this week. “COVID cases are plummeting instead of soaring.” A few weeks ago, when the country’s new daily-case total was around 60,000, the prominent British epidemiologist and government adviser Neil Ferguson declared that a rise to 100,000 a day was inevitable, and that 200,000 a day w…

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases model:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

That's showing hospitalisations rather than cases, and most scenarios show the peak in early August. Hospitalisations lag cases, and it looks like early August will be right: we haven't seen the peak yet.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#32

Post by Imnimo »

squarefoot wrote: post #28
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of people either being vaccinated or infected seems like it would play a big role.

Probably both. We should remember what was the 1st approach to the Covid problem by Johnson (that is, well over one year ago): he wanted to achieve herd immunity without having enough vaccines or not having them at all, and initially there were no imposed lockdowns or infection prevention rules. The point is that along the extremely high death toll caused by that approach, a huge percentage of people over there might…

I don't really see how the level of immunity could be low enough in June to allow rapid growth, and then suddenly be high enough in mid-July to cause rapid decline. Wouldn't we expect a population close to herd immunity to see slow growth, and a population just over herd immunity to see a slow decline?

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#33

Post by wrboyce »

ddek wrote: post #27
Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

Tentative signs the virus has burned out, either through infections or vaccinations. The wave has been entirely confined to the younger age brackets who are far less vaccinated.[1] Being in central London right now, through anecdotal evidence I don't think we've suddenly become less sociable. - [1] UK infections grouped by age. School years 6, 7, 11, and 12 are ages 11, 12, 17, and 18 respectively. https://www.ons.go…

I don’t think those ages are right (the maths do not follow, so I’m almost certain they are not). In y11 you turn 16, not 17.

https://www.gov.uk/national-curriculum

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#34

Post by goalieca »

0xTJ wrote: post #20

This gives me hope for Canada, where I am, won't face too many issues even as we slowly start to tick up from the bottom since major reopening happened, allowing indoor dining etc. In the last week, we've passed the UK in number of fully vaccinated people, but that's going to be slowing down as we start running of people who got their first dose during the big surge in shots here. Unfortunately, at 64% of the total p…

> Starting 2 weeks from now, you won't even have to self-isolate if you test positive for COVID-19.

This is a loaded question, but since covid is and will be endemic, when do we get on with our lives and start facing the mountains of other public health issues? It seems like our vaccination effort was extremely successful and had an amazing effect and there isn’t likely to be any radical new intervention for years to come.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#35

Post by tsywke44 »

Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

Night clubs opened and were PACKED, a lot of young people were unvaccinated, causing hundreds of superspreader events every night for a few weeks.

The % of total population who actually visits nightclubs is pretty low, so it took like a monh for this segment to hit herd immunity basically

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#36

Post by tsywke44 »

tsywke44 wrote: post #35
Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #2

Important and underexamined question. What happened in the UK?

Night clubs opened and were PACKED, a lot of young people were unvaccinated, causing hundreds of superspreader events every night for a few weeks. The % of total population who actually visits nightclubs is pretty low, so it took like a monh for this segment to hit herd immunity basically

Also lots of previously vaccinated people were exposed, but didn’t get infected.

Doesn’t mean their immune system did nothing though. I’d wager a lot of UK population basically got an ”organic 3rd vaccine dose”. My prediction is they have probably the highest immunity rates in the world atm

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#37

Post by tsywke44 »

Imnimo wrote: post #32
squarefoot wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably both. We should remember what was the 1st approach to the Covid problem by Johnson (that is, well over one year ago): he wanted to achieve herd immunity without having enough vaccines or not having them at all, and initially there were no imposed lockdowns or infection prevention rules. The point is that along the extremely high death toll caused by that approach, a huge percentage of people over there might…

I don't really see how the level of immunity could be low enough in June to allow rapid growth, and then suddenly be high enough in mid-July to cause rapid decline. Wouldn't we expect a population close to herd immunity to see slow growth, and a population just over herd immunity to see a slow decline?

If 70% of your population is vaccinated, it doesnt mean the virus spreads 70% slower.

It instead means that there are 20 million potential virus hosts in the UK instead of 67m. Way more than the population of lots of EU countries.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#38

Post by bigbizisverywyz »

3dbrows wrote: post #11
JetSetWilly wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably schools and universities being closed. I'd support this by noting that the numbers in Scotland surged earlier then started declining earlier (where universities and schools go on summer holidays weeks before England). When English schools later broke up for summer, numbers there started declining too. So no doubt numbers will start going up again when school returns, and will do so first in Scotland - as the…

The staggered school return times you mention could be one factor (as could better weather resulting in outdoor socialising instead of indoor). The effect when schools return (~2 weeks from now in Scotland) might be muted however as hundreds of thousands more vaccinations will have been done in the parent-age population. In Scotland, for example, over 90% of adults have received the first dose, and 72% the second (im…

Did we not see the same effect last year (probably for the reasons you mentioned)? Numbers declined in summer, but then massively rose again in Oct-Nov.

I think this Autumn will reveal whether the vaccinations are giving us the protection needed to gradually open up society again.

For my part I really hope it does, as it will also encourage other countries to do the same and give the vaccination campaign a worldwide boost.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#39

Post by monooso »

a_humean wrote: post #30
ddek wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which ONS data are you referring to? The currently published data indicates the wave has at least plateaued, as I read it, in all but the youngest age groups.

They are talking about the survey data, which doesn't rely upon the normal testing regime. They randomly contact and test individuals irrespective of their symptoms status, which is different from the normal testing regime that gets reported daily. I believe its a 20k sample size. The survey takes a lot longer time compile Most recent summary: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... Most recen…

Thanks for adding the relevant links.

Re: The UK’s delta surge is collapsing

#40

Post by bigbizisverywyz »

squarefoot wrote: post #28
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of people either being vaccinated or infected seems like it would play a big role.

Probably both. We should remember what was the 1st approach to the Covid problem by Johnson (that is, well over one year ago): he wanted to achieve herd immunity without having enough vaccines or not having them at all, and initially there were no imposed lockdowns or infection prevention rules. The point is that along the extremely high death toll caused by that approach, a huge percentage of people over there might…

>he wanted to achieve herd immunity without having enough vaccines or not having them at all

Instead he managed to brew an exciting new variant, which is what every health official was warning against.

And I'm guessing that unless the majority of the population are rapidly inoculated then exciting new strains could constantly evolve until we have something truly nasty.

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