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CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

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Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#81

Post by arc-in-space »

lamontcg wrote: post #54
notabee wrote: post #37

Stumbled upon some truly cursed knowledge (if it's true, though I fervently hope not). Imagine a followup pandemic not of more Covid but of neurodegenerative disease from this. Not just in the most severe cases. 1. https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/14174356332121825... 2. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096999611...

> cursed can we please stop using this stupid word? calling things "cursed" is the opposite of bringing any clarity to the world.

I disagree, I think its recent growth in use is a smooth addition to the language, even if we do already have plenty of synonyms for 'bad'. Speaking of those, your very classy 'stupid' hasn't exactly clarified much either.

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#82

Post by aeontech »

sbierwagen wrote: post #77

Slide 20: >Given increased transmissibility, lower VE, and current vaccine coverage, NPIs needed to reduce transmission of Delta variant >Masking: >• Source control 40-60% effective >• Personal protection 20-30% effective >NO ADJUSTMENTS FOR OTHER INTERVENTIONS >• e.g., no distancing, no isolation, no gathering restrictions I'm... not sure about that? Delta is infecting people who just walk past each other in indoor…

Yeah, this is not a slide of recommendations; that’s describing the model assumptions illustrated by the charts. Essentially, it says “these charts don’t include modeling the impact of any additional mitigations aside from masking”; these charts show that we must enforce universal masking immediately at minimum.

On the last slide, “Next Steps for CDC”, they explicitly list:

> ▪ Prevention

> – Consider vaccine mandates for HCP to protect vulnerable populations

> – Universal masking for source control and prevention

> – Reconsider other community mitigation strategies

Which means they definitely think additional mitigations are worthwhile, but we must start with at least masking.

They have a hard job to communicate the specific recommended actions while remaining calm and not causing a panic or making people think that they are over reacting… with everyone ready to jump on them, I do not envy the job.

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#83

Post by sbierwagen »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #79
sbierwagen wrote: post #77

Slide 20: >Given increased transmissibility, lower VE, and current vaccine coverage, NPIs needed to reduce transmission of Delta variant >Masking: >• Source control 40-60% effective >• Personal protection 20-30% effective >NO ADJUSTMENTS FOR OTHER INTERVENTIONS >• e.g., no distancing, no isolation, no gathering restrictions I'm... not sure about that? Delta is infecting people who just walk past each other in indoor…

Restaurants and bars are open because people really want them to be, not because the CDC recommends it. The CDC offers some suggestions on how to manage the risks of opening restaurants, but there's nothing to change there because they've never revoked their early 2020 guidance that it's a big risk.

If there is a secret hidden footnote to "NO ADJUSTMENTS FOR OTHER INTERVENTIONS" and "no distancing, no isolation, no gathering restrictions" that reads "just kidding about that, all restaurants and bars need to be closed immediately" then this slide deck is doing a very bad job of clearly recommending what public heath interventions should be done.

Again, why would they recommend universal masking if they know for a fact that it wouldn't do anything? What's the point?

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#84

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

sbierwagen wrote: post #83
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Restaurants and bars are open because people really want them to be, not because the CDC recommends it. The CDC offers some suggestions on how to manage the risks of opening restaurants, but there's nothing to change there because they've never revoked their early 2020 guidance that it's a big risk.

If there is a secret hidden footnote to "NO ADJUSTMENTS FOR OTHER INTERVENTIONS" and "no distancing, no isolation, no gathering restrictions" that reads "just kidding about that, all restaurants and bars need to be closed immediately" then this slide deck is doing a very bad job of clearly recommending what public heath interventions should be done. Again, why would they recommend universal masking if they know for a…

Why hasn't the FDA approved the vaccines, when health experts universally agree they're safe and effective and everyone should get one? I always hate when conversations come to this, because it comes across as a wild hot take, but there's a point where you've just gotta blame organizational dysfunction. It wouldn't be appropriate for the CDC to say "everyone ought to close indoor dining again" or "masks are pointless if you have them off 80% of the time to eat", and they certainly can't say "let's just let the unvaccinated people get sick". So they have to say some other stuff instead.

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#85

Post by sbierwagen »

aeontech wrote: post #82
sbierwagen wrote: post #77

Slide 20: >Given increased transmissibility, lower VE, and current vaccine coverage, NPIs needed to reduce transmission of Delta variant >Masking: >• Source control 40-60% effective >• Personal protection 20-30% effective >NO ADJUSTMENTS FOR OTHER INTERVENTIONS >• e.g., no distancing, no isolation, no gathering restrictions I'm... not sure about that? Delta is infecting people who just walk past each other in indoor…

Yeah, this is not a slide of recommendations; that’s describing the model assumptions illustrated by the charts. Essentially, it says “these charts don’t include modeling the impact of any additional mitigations aside from masking”; these charts show that we must enforce universal masking immediately at minimum. On the last slide, “Next Steps for CDC”, they explicitly list: > ▪ Prevention > – Consider vaccine mandate…

I feel like we are in complete agreement on the facts, but are somehow coming to opposite conclusions.

Slide 21, bold red text, surrounded by a red box: "Given higher transmissibility and current vaccine coverage, universal masking is essential to reduce transmission of the Delta variant"

If this is supposed to imply that restaurants need to be closed, I feel like it should instead actually explicitly say that, because it means firing a million people, again. If universal masking requires restaurant closing, then masking by itself won't do anything!

If masking by itself does nothing, then why dedicate two slides to just masking? If masking does nothing, why give it 40-60% effectiveness? If the graph is totally worthless and means nothing useful, why put it in the presentation?

If closing restaurants is mission critical, absolutely required for any other NPI to have any effect at all, then why hide it inside "Reconsider other community mitigation strategies" on the last slide?

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#86

Post by SheinhardtWigCo »

notabee wrote: post #37

Stumbled upon some truly cursed knowledge (if it's true, though I fervently hope not). Imagine a followup pandemic not of more Covid but of neurodegenerative disease from this. Not just in the most severe cases. 1. https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/14174356332121825... 2. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096999611...

Please don't. That isn't knowledge, it's a tweet.

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#87

Post by sbierwagen »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #84
sbierwagen wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there is a secret hidden footnote to "NO ADJUSTMENTS FOR OTHER INTERVENTIONS" and "no distancing, no isolation, no gathering restrictions" that reads "just kidding about that, all restaurants and bars need to be closed immediately" then this slide deck is doing a very bad job of clearly recommending what public heath interventions should be done. Again, why would they recommend universal masking if they know for a…

Why hasn't the FDA approved the vaccines, when health experts universally agree they're safe and effective and everyone should get one? I always hate when conversations come to this, because it comes across as a wild hot take, but there's a point where you've just gotta blame organizational dysfunction. It wouldn't be appropriate for the CDC to say "everyone ought to close indoor dining again" or "masks are pointless…

And in the end, we come to furious agreement: the CDC projections are nonsense, and "40-60%" is too high by orders of magnitude.

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#88

Post by ramraj07 »

jimbob45 wrote: post #25
ramraj07 wrote: post #21

Will anyone hold the CDC accountable for its screwups? Even misinformation by Fox News pales in comparison to the travesty that was CDCs recommendation to remove mask mandates for vaccinated people. If purported expert agencies can’t suppress their politics and idiocy and be cautious why can we ever expect the public to be careful?

Did comparable agencies around the world make different or similar decisions in similar situations? Just because they were wrong doesn’t mean that they didn’t make the best decision possible with the available information and given circumstances.

Even assuming they were making the correct decisions in the beginning of the pandemic (which they were not), the decision recently to tell anyone vaccinated is fully safe is outrageous. There’s not a single expert who agreed that that was a good idea, and now thousands of people are dying because of it. The only reason to make that announcement was political and that’s exactly what I’m talking about. A scientific agency that puts politics before science.

This and the fda authorization of the biogen drug have sealed the deal for me on how corrupted the US has become. It’s been coasting thanks to the good decisions made decades past, and finally it’s just fumes and the time couldn’t be more perfect.

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#89

Post by blooalien »

vsnf wrote: post #6

Slide 21 >Given higher transmissibility and current vaccine coverage, universal masking is essential to reduce transmission of the Delta variant Well that's very sad, if not entirely unexpected. How long will we be living in a masked world?

> How long will we be living in a masked world?

Forever, because too many self-centered people refused to do the few simple things it would have taken to get the situation even remotely close to under control. It's already gone on longer than it needed to, and because of human selfishness it's almost certainly just going to get worse.

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#90

Post by pixxel »

mikenew wrote: post #63
aaccount wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those values are for a 100,000 people, If you do the calculation for the people not affected 99.9785% of vaccinated are not infected 99.8714% of un-vaccinated are not infected 99.9999% of vaccinated are not hospitalized 99.9975% of un-vaccinated are not hospitalized 99.99996% of vaccinated are not dead 99.99904% of un-vaccinated are not dead This is such a small difference.

My odds of getting in a car wreck today are tiny. If I wear a seatbelt today it will almost certainly not matter. My odds of getting in a car wreck over the course of years are not so tiny, and wearing a seatbelt makes a big difference.

Stop with this seatbelt analogy. At least until the government demands you start ingesting them.
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