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CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

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Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#61

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #59
vsnf wrote: post #6

Slide 21 >Given higher transmissibility and current vaccine coverage, universal masking is essential to reduce transmission of the Delta variant Well that's very sad, if not entirely unexpected. How long will we be living in a masked world?

Asia has been living in a masked world for at least two decades. It's not a major inconvenience, and it doesn't infringe on anyone's freedoms. Westerners really need to stop being such spoiled entitled children about this situation, and cowboy up and do what it takes to eradicate this pandemic.

Well, see, this is the kind of attitude that gets people concerned. I'm not aware of any expert or health official who believes that eradicating the pandemic is possible. If you've gotten the impression that our public health response is about reaching some future point where Covid-19 is gone and nobody ever has to worry about it, you're being misled.

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#62

Post by denton-scratch »

mike_d wrote: post #26
colechristensen wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The masks most people wear basically only diffuse sneezes and coughs which makes immediate droplet transfer lower. A piece of ordinary cloth on your face does not filter smog, does not prevent any airborne infection droplets from reaching you, essentially only lowers the chance of your cough hitting somebody else. You need an N95 or better to really do anything to protect yourself. Also even if you have a high grade…

This should help make it clear: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/368/6498/1422/F1.... Masks do more to protect others than they do you. Which is why we are safest when everyone wears a mask.

Which is why I get annoyed at the flood of maskless wonders in UK shops since 'freedom day' (I am 65, and have a chronic respiratory illness). And I wonder whether the Great Unmasked coincides with the Great Unvaccinated.

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#63

Post by mikenew »

aaccount wrote: post #53
mjevans wrote: post #38

Page 3 is the chart they need to have on display for anyone that doesn't trust the vaccines.

Those values are for a 100,000 people, If you do the calculation for the people not affected 99.9785% of vaccinated are not infected 99.8714% of un-vaccinated are not infected 99.9999% of vaccinated are not hospitalized 99.9975% of un-vaccinated are not hospitalized 99.99996% of vaccinated are not dead 99.99904% of un-vaccinated are not dead This is such a small difference.

My odds of getting in a car wreck today are tiny. If I wear a seatbelt today it will almost certainly not matter. My odds of getting in a car wreck over the course of years are not so tiny, and wearing a seatbelt makes a big difference.

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#64

Post by adrianN »

aaccount wrote: post #53
mjevans wrote: post #38

Page 3 is the chart they need to have on display for anyone that doesn't trust the vaccines.

Those values are for a 100,000 people, If you do the calculation for the people not affected 99.9785% of vaccinated are not infected 99.8714% of un-vaccinated are not infected 99.9999% of vaccinated are not hospitalized 99.9975% of un-vaccinated are not hospitalized 99.99996% of vaccinated are not dead 99.99904% of un-vaccinated are not dead This is such a small difference.

If you write it in permille the differences appear even smaller. But if you look at the actual number of people who will die if we keep the pandemic going and don't get the vaccination rates up, the difference is suddenly in the millions of people.

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#65

Post by dnzkw »

trainsplanes wrote: post #46
rayiner wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where in Asia is everyone walking around masked unless they’re actively sick? In Tokyo you can always see a few masked people, but that’s totally different than everyone being masked.

Everyone in Japan is currently walking around masked. People here also walk around with masks during allergy season, or doing flu season even when they’re not sick. In Taiwan and Vietnam I saw (and wore) masks on days when the air was particularly dirty.

Jesus what a way of moving the goalposts. First you say in Asia (billions of people!) everybody has always walked around masked. Now it's only Japan and only during the pandemic.

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#66

Post by zamfi »

aaccount wrote: post #53
mjevans wrote: post #38

Page 3 is the chart they need to have on display for anyone that doesn't trust the vaccines.

Those values are for a 100,000 people, If you do the calculation for the people not affected 99.9785% of vaccinated are not infected 99.8714% of un-vaccinated are not infected 99.9999% of vaccinated are not hospitalized 99.9975% of un-vaccinated are not hospitalized 99.99996% of vaccinated are not dead 99.99904% of un-vaccinated are not dead This is such a small difference.

…in just one given week, though. And that week was not so bad; in January we had case rates many multiples higher.

But maybe if you count infections per second, instead of per week, you can get a number so close to 100% not dead that it’s a rounding error: pandemic solved!

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#67

Post by trainsplanes »

dnzkw wrote: post #65
trainsplanes wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone in Japan is currently walking around masked. People here also walk around with masks during allergy season, or doing flu season even when they’re not sick. In Taiwan and Vietnam I saw (and wore) masks on days when the air was particularly dirty.

Jesus what a way of moving the goalposts. First you say in Asia (billions of people!) everybody has always walked around masked. Now it's only Japan and only during the pandemic.

I didn’t say always. The person specifically mentioned Tokyo and I stated the reality of how it is in Japan.

The situation is the same in China.

I also specifically said people wear them outside of the pandemic.

I think you’re very confused because you’re angry. Calm down. :)

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#68

Post by dnzkw »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #61
SkyMarshal wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Asia has been living in a masked world for at least two decades. It's not a major inconvenience, and it doesn't infringe on anyone's freedoms. Westerners really need to stop being such spoiled entitled children about this situation, and cowboy up and do what it takes to eradicate this pandemic.

Well, see, this is the kind of attitude that gets people concerned. I'm not aware of any expert or health official who believes that eradicating the pandemic is possible. If you've gotten the impression that our public health response is about reaching some future point where Covid-19 is gone and nobody ever has to worry about it, you're being misled.

It's a common lie like the lie that we just needed to vaccinate to go back to normal - now we are realising this is nothing but a perennial treadmill.

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#69

Post by denton-scratch »

colechristensen wrote: post #15
vsnf wrote: post #6

Slide 21 >Given higher transmissibility and current vaccine coverage, universal masking is essential to reduce transmission of the Delta variant Well that's very sad, if not entirely unexpected. How long will we be living in a masked world?

>How long will we be living in a masked world? We won't be. People will simply be unwilling to do so long term and what doesn't get prevented by vaccines will burn through the population until everyone has antibodies and the disease weakens and "the common cold kills people" becomes the new normal. There have always been diseases around that killed people, we were lucky for quite a while because the rate was fairly l…

> Eventually the disease is going to run out of people to infect the first time.

VE for Delta apparently wears off after ~180 days.

Re: CDC Internal Delta Variant Presentation

#70

Post by X6S1x6Okd1st »

page 18 seems to be indicating that Delta is ~2x more likely to have all of the bad outcomes relative to ancestral strain.

That combined with how much more infectious this is makes it truly worrying.

One interpretation of the fact that Israel has such different numbers on vaccine effectiveness is that effectiveness starts dropping ~6 months in.

We'll need to start doing 3rd shots for lots of people ~now.

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