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Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

arstechnica.com

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Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#171

Post by theluketaylor »

cycomanic wrote: post #96
theluketaylor wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Volt was a great car and 5 years ago it was a great solution. Now that long distance road trip charging is good enough I think the value of a PHEV is greatly diminished. They are an especially poor solution to the largest charging hurdle still remaining of apartment and street parkers since PHEVs must be plugged in nightly for carbon reduction ROI. The issue isn't so much weight as volume and packaging. Having 2 powe…

That's actually not true, you significantly underestimate the weight and space requirements of batteries necessary for long range EVs. There was just a comparison by heise.de of the Mercedes Eqa and GlA [1] and in comparison of space they write that the more EV the less space, i.e. ICE>PHEV>EV

For extreme range the extra weight starts to cost efficiency and you get diminishing returns, but I think my model 3 sr+ is close to the optimal balance. 50 kWh battery gets me 400 km range and weighs right in line with other compact and midsized sedans at 1600 kg. Charging speed is fast enough that long road trips are not a big deal. There isn't a single ICE car in the same footprint with that much storage space or forward visibility.

Tesla happens to be one of the most efficient EV drivetrains out there, but the hyundai/kia twins are right there with them, so it isn't out of reach.

EQA isn't a dedicated EV platform, so of course packaging isn't optimized to take advantage of the space savings available in a BEV.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#172

Post by Umofomia »

cycomanic wrote: post #96
theluketaylor wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Volt was a great car and 5 years ago it was a great solution. Now that long distance road trip charging is good enough I think the value of a PHEV is greatly diminished. They are an especially poor solution to the largest charging hurdle still remaining of apartment and street parkers since PHEVs must be plugged in nightly for carbon reduction ROI. The issue isn't so much weight as volume and packaging. Having 2 powe…

That's actually not true, you significantly underestimate the weight and space requirements of batteries necessary for long range EVs. There was just a comparison by heise.de of the Mercedes Eqa and GlA [1] and in comparison of space they write that the more EV the less space, i.e. ICE>PHEV>EV

> they write that the more EV the less space

That's because the EQA is built on the same platform that GLA uses, which was designed for ICE vehicles.[1] The newer crop of electric vehicles that are built on dedicated platforms designed for EVs end up providing much more space than ICEs, mostly due to the ability to have the battery in a flat skateboard layout that is not possible with an ICE platform.[2]

PHEVs end up making the same compromises by shoving a larger battery into an ICE platform, which is why, for instance, the RAV4 Prime ends up having less cargo space than the regular RAV4 hybrid.

[1] https://insideevs.com/news/467187/mercedes-benz-eqa-repeats-...

[2] https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a36877554/electric-veh...

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#173

Post by olivermarks »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #169
olivermarks wrote: post #146

'According to the US Department of Energy, less than 5 per cent of lithium-ion batteries — demand for which is set to boom as carmakers such as Mercedes lay out goals to go “all-electric” — are currently recycled.' https://www.ft.com/content/771498b8-9457-462f-aee0-e32db14ee... Unless battery reuse is made viable there is no path forward for any future mass market in EV's. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/T…

https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/ (founded by JB Straubel [1], previously CTO of Tesla) Hybrids are the worst of both electric and combustion powertrains, their time has passed. Small nuclear reactors aren't ever going to happen (can't compete economically with solar/wind backed by batteries). [1] https://energy.stanford.edu/people/jb-straubel

The FT article I linked is about redwoodmaterials massive infusion of backing. Solar/wind has serious shortcomings and are not at this point able to store energy 'in batteries' in any volume. Hawaii is making progress here

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#174

Post by toomuchtodo »

olivermarks wrote: post #173
toomuchtodo wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/ (founded by JB Straubel [1], previously CTO of Tesla) Hybrids are the worst of both electric and combustion powertrains, their time has passed. Small nuclear reactors aren't ever going to happen (can't compete economically with solar/wind backed by batteries). [1] https://energy.stanford.edu/people/jb-straubel

The FT article I linked is about redwoodmaterials massive infusion of backing. Solar/wind has serious shortcomings and are not at this point able to store energy 'in batteries' in any volume. Hawaii is making progress here

Don't have a FT subscription currently, my apologies for not reviewing it prior to commenting!

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#175

Post by thinkling »

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #142
Causality1 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be nice if Toyota actually had any interest in plug in hybrids. Their only one, the Prius Prime, is more expensive than its competitors and offers less than half their range. What's the point of getting a PHEV if I still spend half my commute running on gasoline?

Exactly. GM showed with a Volt that a PHEV could be effectively a BEV 90% of the time and perform excellently even when falling back into ICE mode, but the Prime came out after the Volt and its drivetrain is inferior in every way to it. I understand the Prime is roomier and so on, but in terms of drivetrain it's woefully inferior. As a Volt and Mitsu Outlander PHEV owner I obviously have nothing against the PHEV conc…

My impression is that GM had trouble making the Voltec drive train work in larger cars. The Volt is a low-slung, very aerodynamic car. As soon as you turn that into a crossover (as they were rumored to be doing) or a small SUV, both range and gas mileage are going to suffer.

It's too bad. We have a Volt and I would have loved the same drivetrain in a car with more ground clearance and a bit more cargo space.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#176

Post by etempleton »

cycomanic wrote: post #81
ramesh31 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>depending on your daily driving patterns This is the key point. Modern highly efficient turbocharged 4 cylinder ICE vehicles can be equally or more efficient than a hybrid in the right circumstances as well. But the vast majority of driving is city streets <45mph, where ICE can't even come close to BEV.

There's been quite a few studies questioning the current focus on EVs with ranges of 400km and more. Largely because they are so heavy and are therefore not very energy efficient. The argument is that most peoples daily commute is less than 50km (in Europe), but they still by an overly heavy EV for the 5-10 times a year they go on longer trips. Instead a plugin hybrid could be much more efficient, because you can use…

The current focus on long ranges is largely because Tesla is leading the charge in electric vehicles and Tesla is an American automaker. Commutes are often longer and conditions vary widely across the country and from season to season making predicting the true range difficult.

Plug-in hybrids may make sense, but I would imagine that including both a full power ICE and electric motor together and having them work together makes a more complex vehicle with more potential points of faliure. You also have the added weight of the duplicate components. The Chevy Volt, for example, weighs more than a base Model 3 and only slightly less than the long range configuration of the Model 3.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#177

Post by huge87 »

WhompingWindows wrote: post #44

The Japanese car companies have done pretty poorly in the 2010's in supporting the energy transition. Toyota has been extremely slow to adapt after the Prius, which makes sense because of their ridiculously large volume of sales of basic, gas-efficient passenger vehicles. I give Toyota big props for the Prius, which was the original Green Vehicle 15-20 years ago, and still is a HUGE player in the efficiency space. II…

> I give Toyota big props for the Prius, which was the original Green Vehicle 15-20 years ago, and still is a HUGE player in the efficiency space. IIRC, The number one vehicle trade-in for TSLA has been Priuses. Was there even a car before the Prius that used regenerative braking? In many ways, Prius "primed" the market for greener vehicles.

> And yet, Toyota had no great BEV follow-up

Prius sales trends since debut in 1997 reflect this sentiment in that they were first, executed well, and thus had most of the market. Current Prius sales are dropping off very steadily by year, though.

But to your point on the trade ins, current Tesla Model 3 sales are getting close to Prius' best all time sales of +200K units/year.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/total-toyota-prius-sales-figur...

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/tesla-model-3-sales-figures-us...

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#178

Post by chipsa »

kllrnohj wrote: post #137
b112 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's extremely practical, they just need a refueling network.

The Mirai is 196 inches long (same as a Model S or BMW 5 series) yet has less than 10 cu ft of trunk space. The volume required to fit all the hydrogen fuel cell components is massive . It's not especially practical as a result. Even if there was a refueling network, it's not like you're going to take it camping or road trip with such a small trunk, and for an around town grocery runner it's on the large side. It's n…

Most hydrogen isn't from electrolysis of water. It's mostly made commercially from natural gas.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#179

Post by frumper »

chipsa wrote: post #152
frumper wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My local Toyota dealer has about 25 new cars on their lot instead of 150+, that sounds like a pretty big hit.

Is it that they're suffering a car shortage, or everyone else is, and they're getting cleaned out because that's where people can find cars?

They told me they were having the same supply issues as everyone else right now. I wanted to look at a highlander hybrid and they said they were only getting sent 1 every few months and usually didn't know when it would arrive until it was in transit.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#180

Post by Robotbeat »

kongolongo wrote: post #46
ramesh31 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>depending on your daily driving patterns This is the key point. Modern highly efficient turbocharged 4 cylinder ICE vehicles can be equally or more efficient than a hybrid in the right circumstances as well. But the vast majority of driving is city streets <45mph, where ICE can't even come close to BEV.

Well in the case of urban areas, outside of some select locations, the charging infra is just not there for BEVs. Even if there were good EV infra in urban areas, a compelling case could be made for improving and upgrading public transportation instead which is going to be more efficient than any personal vehicle - including BEVs.

A sidenote but unless public transport vehicles are electric, they won’t be better than battery electric vehicles. Typical diesel buses with typical occupancy rates have worse emissions per passenger mile then, say, a model three with a typical occupancy rate and grid emissions factor in US.

BEVs are fantastic, have SOME level of infrastructure literally everywhere with electricity (you literally can charge from a 120V outlet just fine), and we’ll need basically all vehicles to be battery electric to get to where we need to be.

It also is trivial to add EV charging infrastructure, which is another under appreciated aspect. It’s easier than installing a streetlight.

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