Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen • Hacker News Board

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#121

Post by stuaxo » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:08 PM UTC

winternett wrote: post #117

Causality1 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be nice if Toyota actually had any interest in plug in hybrids. Their only one, the Prius Prime, is more expensive than its competitors and offers less than half their range. What's the point of getting a PHEV if I still spend half my commute running on gasoline?

3 major problems none of the EV evangelists are addressing about with EVs are 1. What happens to all the giant lithium batteries on these vehicles after they reach end of life? 2. How will people be able to evacuate a city or state in an emergency situation when charging/electric supply is not present (which is always likely to happen)? 3. Coal burning infrastructure is still inextricably involved in generating the p…

1. They will be recycled.

2. Never heard this one, what kind of apocalypse are you foreseeing ?

3. Centralised generation is easier to mitigate, and later replace with clean generation.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#122

Post by forz877 » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:08 PM UTC

cycomanic wrote: post #81

ramesh31 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>depending on your daily driving patterns This is the key point. Modern highly efficient turbocharged 4 cylinder ICE vehicles can be equally or more efficient than a hybrid in the right circumstances as well. But the vast majority of driving is city streets <45mph, where ICE can't even come close to BEV.

There's been quite a few studies questioning the current focus on EVs with ranges of 400km and more. Largely because they are so heavy and are therefore not very energy efficient. The argument is that most peoples daily commute is less than 50km (in Europe), but they still by an overly heavy EV for the 5-10 times a year they go on longer trips. Instead a plugin hybrid could be much more efficient, because you can use…

People do not just buy cars for daily commutes, it doesn't make sense to solely design around that.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#123

Post by maxerickson » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:08 PM UTC

ianai wrote: post #115

trixie_ wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You lose efficiency when using electricity for electrolysis, compression and transportation of hydrogen. And then through the fuel cell itself which is used to charge a battery. That entire roundabout process results in a pretty low efficiency for hydrogen. Why not skip all those steps and put the electricity right into a battery with little efficiency loss. https://insideevs.com/news/406676/battery-electric-hydrogen…

Your comment is OT, but here's a comment I made previously to it ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27872908 ) : Even the term “fossil fuels” is an inappropriate framing of the chemicals involved since it restricts their use to burning. Consider the processes involved in their formations: organic material grew for eons millions of years ago. It then had to be buried in just the right conditions and later embedded…

Your esoteric definition of efficiency isn't very useful.

If you have solar power, the comparison between storing it in hydrogen using electrolysis or a battery is pretty direct and useful and has fuck all to do with hydrocarbons.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#124

Post by acjohnson55 » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:09 PM UTC

winternett wrote: post #117

Causality1 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be nice if Toyota actually had any interest in plug in hybrids. Their only one, the Prius Prime, is more expensive than its competitors and offers less than half their range. What's the point of getting a PHEV if I still spend half my commute running on gasoline?

3 major problems none of the EV evangelists are addressing about with EVs are 1. What happens to all the giant lithium batteries on these vehicles after they reach end of life? 2. How will people be able to evacuate a city or state in an emergency situation when charging/electric supply is not present (which is always likely to happen)? 3. Coal burning infrastructure is still inextricably involved in generating the p…

For #2, I'm not so sure the situation is strictly worse than with gas. I lived in NYC during Hurricane Sandy, and it took many days for gasoline to become available (a few weeks, IIRC). Electricity was plentiful, though.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#125

Post by chipsa » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:10 PM UTC

ramesh31 wrote: post #41

NickM wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it will be a decade more until a 60+kwH EV is being sold for “A decade more” seems way too pessimistic given current EV prices and battery capacities. The 2022 Bolt will have a starting price of $32k with a 65kWh battery, for example.

>The 2022 Bolt will have a starting price of $32k with a 65kWh battery, for example. That's still a totally different class of car buyers. A "starting price" of $32k means no one is walking out the door with one under $40k total upfront cost. When I can walk into a dealership and finance something like that at $25k total loan amount, that changes everything.

I literally bought a new Chevy Bolt in April for $22k total ($20k financed).

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#126

Post by throwaway0a5e » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:10 PM UTC

Causality1 wrote: post #87

bildung wrote: post #21

The FUD accusations seem a bit hasty here. The linked Senate hearing doesn't seem to contain negative things about BEVs (it only criticizes the "narrow focus" on them), but instead opts for including hybrid and hydrogen, with the argument being that "recent data shows that plug-in hybrids can achieve nearly the same or better GHG reductions than BEVs depending on your daily driving patterns, the carbon in the electri…

It would be nice if Toyota actually had any interest in plug in hybrids. Their only one, the Prius Prime, is more expensive than its competitors and offers less than half their range. What's the point of getting a PHEV if I still spend half my commute running on gasoline?

More expensive and substantially less specs on paper is pretty par for the course for Toyota. But motorcycles only really work when the weather is good and people buy those too. People rationalize these purchases in other ways.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#127

Post by ariwilson » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:11 PM UTC

theluketaylor wrote: post #61

BoorishBears wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 2nd Gen Chevy Volt was the Model 3 we deserved, but couldn't appreciate. 40-50 miles EV range meant that most people would have an EV most of the time, and use gas only on one off trips. And while people 10 years behind on ICE advancements would immediately start yelling about dragging around a dead weight ICE all day, modern ICEs are incredibly light, efficient, and reliable in the type of application the Volt h…

Volt was a great car and 5 years ago it was a great solution. Now that long distance road trip charging is good enough I think the value of a PHEV is greatly diminished. They are an especially poor solution to the largest charging hurdle still remaining of apartment and street parkers since PHEVs must be plugged in nightly for carbon reduction ROI. The issue isn't so much weight as volume and packaging. Having 2 powe…

The RAV4 Prime solves the interior issue by being a CUV and also putting the battery pack below the vehicle.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#128

Post by colordrops » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:15 PM UTC

stuaxo wrote: post #121

winternett wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3 major problems none of the EV evangelists are addressing about with EVs are 1. What happens to all the giant lithium batteries on these vehicles after they reach end of life? 2. How will people be able to evacuate a city or state in an emergency situation when charging/electric supply is not present (which is always likely to happen)? 3. Coal burning infrastructure is still inextricably involved in generating the p…

1. They will be recycled. 2. Never heard this one, what kind of apocalypse are you foreseeing ? 3. Centralised generation is easier to mitigate, and later replace with clean generation.

And for 3, it's not all or nothing - it can happen incrementally. I fully charge my Tesla using the panels on my roof, no hydrocarbons were ever involved.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#129

Post by specialist » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:15 PM UTC

sokoloff wrote: post #73

specialist wrote: post #69

Toyota should pull an Intel, and become the TSMC of automobiles. I've waggishly said I'd buy a Tesla made by Toyota. Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity. -- Solid hydrogen fuels will be the next wave. Specifically non-gaseous, before anyone has a spaz attack. We know! Storage, transportation, distribution of H2 is not practical. Plasma Kinetics' has a…

How much of Toyota's very good outcomes are a matter of Toyota manufacturing versus Toyota design (to including continual improvement based on experience in the field)? Many of Tesla's teething pains are self-inflicted at the design stage rather than being solely a manufacturing problem.

As a huge fan, I'm very keen to hear the story of Toyota. How'd they lose their edge? Is decline inevitable once you peak? Is death-by-bureaucracy just what happens once you have entrenched stakeholders?

I now feel that Tesla is more Toyota than Toyota (continuous improvement). And becoming more Apple than Apple (monopsony). Plus a dash of Samsung (vertical integration).

[h/t Sandy Munro's teardowns, The Limiting Factor, both on youtube.]

--

Tesla somehow champions Wright's Law better than any one else. (Coupled with financial acumen bordering on fraud.) They're maniacal about efficiency, ramping up production, above all else. They eschew model years and just roll out improvements as fast as possible.

I've never worked at place that both scaled up and focused cost reduction; it was always either-or. Even with the human cost, it's kind of exciting. (I worked in hypergrowth orgs in my 20s, at great personal cost. If I was 20 again, I'd be at Tesla (or SpaceX).)

--

Tesla has also embraced Apple's monopsony strategy.

For iPod, Apple bought out all mini HDDs. For unibody laptops, Apple bought every milling machine. You couldn't compete even if you wanted to. Why did Apple pursue thinness, past the point of reason? Because they could and no one else could copy them.

In the same way, Tesla has embraced casting giant parts, by using the giant gigapresses. Acknowledging the obvious benefits like reduced part counts, improved quality... The deeper genius is any one who wants to copy them has to wait years to even buy their own gigapress.

I'm sure there are other steps in their production pipeline which competitors cannot easily copy. Because the tools, materials, skills simply are not available at any cost.

--

Tesla will be mining their own lithium. That's insane! Who else in the world will own the entire lifecycle of their products?

And because Tesla is so vertically integrated, they'll be able to optimize globally. They'll have manufacturing steps done on site at the mines. Reducing shipping and handling costs.

And since Tesla makes their own solar panels, they'll provide their own power.

Such audacity!

--

Plus some kind of crazy. Their misadventures with automation and robots should have killed the company. And yet they pivoted, compressing 40 years of manufacturing experience into 5 years.

How the hell did Tesla pull it off? They've had so many near death experiences. And at every critical juncture, they double down.

I feel like there's a lesson here, but I have no clue what it might be.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#130

Post by danpalmer » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 4:20 PM UTC

winternett wrote: post #117

Causality1 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be nice if Toyota actually had any interest in plug in hybrids. Their only one, the Prius Prime, is more expensive than its competitors and offers less than half their range. What's the point of getting a PHEV if I still spend half my commute running on gasoline?

3 major problems none of the EV evangelists are addressing about with EVs are 1. What happens to all the giant lithium batteries on these vehicles after they reach end of life? 2. How will people be able to evacuate a city or state in an emergency situation when charging/electric supply is not present (which is always likely to happen)? 3. Coal burning infrastructure is still inextricably involved in generating the p…

More answers to add to the others already given...

2. Mass evacuations by car are inherently inefficient, we should use public transport.

2. or... petrol supply requires transportation whereas electrical supply does not, the former does not seem inherently better than the latter.

2. or... it's as impractical for everyone to fill up their cars in an emergency as it is for everyone to charge their cars.

Honestly, I don't think petrol is any better here – we've just got more cases of this mostly working with petrol cars, and no examples either way yet for electric cars.

3. Oil refinement for an amount of petrol takes roughly as much energy as an electric car takes to go that distance, so we aren't just shifting oil -> electricity, we're actually doing (oil + electricity) -> electricity. This gives us an immediate and significant win on overall fossil fuel emissions even if electricity is entirely generated with fossil fuels.

3. Coal burning infrastructure is not in any way inextricably linked to the power to charge electric vehicles. Coal burning happens to be how much of the US/China gets its electricity for powering electric cars but the fact that solar power can be fed into the grid with no changes to anything else shows that the "inextricably" is false.

3. Coal burning happens to be used in some countries but in others, green energy production is far more available and there electric cars are much better for the environment.

> We need to realize that the motivation to deploy EVs too early is driven by profit rather than by motives in environmental protection and conservation of resources, then the really productive conversations can occur.

Companies are driven by profit, yes, however there are vast, immediate, benefits to the use of electric cars, as well as significant future benefits that can be realised as we transition off fossil fuels. Saying that EVs cannot be motivated by environmental benefits is disingenuous.