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Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

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Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#51

Post by McDyver »

umvi wrote: post #9
xrd wrote: post #4

It's a great article. The real problem with evidence like this is that the "believer" must strive for 100% accuracy; that is really hard. The "skeptic" only needs to have one single piece of data turn out to be inaccurate, and then can doubt the entire thing; that is really easy. And, we can hold both things in our heads. I just went to the Newport Aquarium in Oregon. There is a terrific exhibit which shows a paleobo…

It's a classic red vs. blue attack/defense problem that affects lots of fields. To make a perfectly secure piece of software it must be flawless. An attacker on the other hand only needs to find a single exploit, a single oversight, to break it. Defending something is orders of magnitude more difficult than attacking something for that reason.

Like defending your privacy from apps constantly asking for access to your contacts. Once you're a bit distracted and press "allow" by mistake, it's gone

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#52

Post by ipsum2 »

diffset wrote: post #7
sillysaurusx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m a climate change denier. A lot of us keep our opinions to ourselves, mostly because we know we don’t know enough about it. Articles like these help change my mind. Well, partly. The question I keep coming to is “how do you know any of this matters, for a definition of ‘matter’ that includes widespread upheaval of human societies?” But at this point I go meh, not worth the risk. Point is, condescending remarks onl…

If you want evidence of widespread upheaval, just look at California's weather data over the past few decades. It's consistently gotten hotter and dryer, causing more and more fires that are killing hundreds of people per year and destroying entire towns. It's not about believing in climate change, it's about *understanding* it. It's very real. https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Wildfires-...

Blaming climate change for California wildfires is a neat way to deflect the real cause: forest mismanagement.

See https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/decades-mismanagement-l...

From 2018:

> During its review, the Commission found that California’s forests suffer from neglect and mismanagement, resulting in overcrowding that leaves them susceptible to disease, insects and wildfire.

https://lhc.ca.gov/report/fire-mountain-rethinking-forest-ma...

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#53

Post by manquer »

umvi wrote: post #9
xrd wrote: post #4

It's a great article. The real problem with evidence like this is that the "believer" must strive for 100% accuracy; that is really hard. The "skeptic" only needs to have one single piece of data turn out to be inaccurate, and then can doubt the entire thing; that is really easy. And, we can hold both things in our heads. I just went to the Newport Aquarium in Oregon. There is a terrific exhibit which shows a paleobo…

It's a classic red vs. blue attack/defense problem that affects lots of fields. To make a perfectly secure piece of software it must be flawless. An attacker on the other hand only needs to find a single exploit, a single oversight, to break it. Defending something is orders of magnitude more difficult than attacking something for that reason.

The counterpoint is, good defense (and software) comes from good principles and hard work. Good attack (or hack) on the other hand also requires brilliance and luck to find the exploit.

Over time defense will keep improving , attack on the other hand will become more difficult when common issues are no longer a problem ( say memory safety or SQL injection) when best practices become the norm.

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#54

Post by chromaton »

atoav wrote: post #48
chromaton wrote: post #36

I hate to do this but... cherry trees only live about 15-40 years. They're cultivated and bred for their blossoms, among other things. How can we be sure that we haven't selected trees for earlier blooms?

How can we be sure we have not selected them for later blooms and things are even worse than we thought? : )

Yeah, I get that this article shows evidence, but it's not the slam dunk that the author is making it out to be.

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#55

Post by sosuke »

tzs wrote: post #21

It looks like from around 1700-1900 the earliest peak bloom day got later, while the latest peak bloom day stayed about the same. After that, the latest peak bloom day started getting earlier and the earliest peak bloom day also started getting earlier. So right now peak blooms can occur about as earlier as their historically could, but seem much more unlikely to occur as late as they historically did. In other words…

I always assumed our blight on the world started with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#56

Post by throwaway413 »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #3
Comevius wrote: post #2

"It's not projected data, it's actual data. It's not measured, it's observed." It's certainly elegant proof. If those climate change deniers could read they would be very upset.

I’m a climate change denier. A lot of us keep our opinions to ourselves, mostly because we know we don’t know enough about it. Articles like these help change my mind. Well, partly. The question I keep coming to is “how do you know any of this matters, for a definition of ‘matter’ that includes widespread upheaval of human societies?” But at this point I go meh, not worth the risk. Point is, condescending remarks onl…

Just want to stop and say that I’m so happy to have stumbled across sillysaurus today.

You helped me through a very hard time in my life a few years back, and I have thought about you often since then. Thank you. Glad to see you back here!

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#57

Post by pavlov »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #17
monktastic1 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure I understand. Why deny something that you claim not to know enough about?

Heh. Well, since you asked... There's a distressing pattern: the idea that "man made climate change exists, therefore disaster." The "disaster" part is the part I've never truly been able to convince myself of. I don't deny it -- you're right, it's more along the lines of agnosticism. But I think it's really easy to convince yourself of doom. However, striving to be something resembling a scientist, I recognize that…

> "I just wish people would admit 'We don't really know, but it would be a good idea to take a few precautionary steps'"

That was a reasonable stance in the 1970s. We have a ton more evidence now.

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#58

Post by anotherman554 »

warent wrote: post #24
monktastic1 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure I understand. Why deny something that you claim not to know enough about?

Isn't that the default stance in philosophy? Assume something is false until evidence proven true. You cannot begin with the assumption that something is true, otherwise we're back to the mystical dark ages of magic monsters and alchemy

I don't think this is correct. Philosophies vary but philosophy of knowledge deals with how you can know something. The opposite of knowing something isn't assuming it is false.

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#59

Post by brummm »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #3
Comevius wrote: post #2

"It's not projected data, it's actual data. It's not measured, it's observed." It's certainly elegant proof. If those climate change deniers could read they would be very upset.

I’m a climate change denier. A lot of us keep our opinions to ourselves, mostly because we know we don’t know enough about it. Articles like these help change my mind. Well, partly. The question I keep coming to is “how do you know any of this matters, for a definition of ‘matter’ that includes widespread upheaval of human societies?” But at this point I go meh, not worth the risk. Point is, condescending remarks onl…

I think condescending really is the wrong approach to people that have crazy beliefs like climate change deniers, holocaust deniers and anti-vaxxers. These are people that choose to believe in something dogmatic that is absolutely not covered by facts and no rational discussion will be able to convince them otherwise.

In my opinion, people should be less accepting of stupidity like this. There are opinions that should not be accepted so condescension is the wrong approach, rejection and ostracization are the ones that are right in my opinion.

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#60

Post by AutumnCurtain »

swader999 wrote: post #50
AutumnCurtain wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question of the impact of climate change on humans seems to me a separate one from the observable reality of climate change and CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, which is a more tangible data question. It seems odd to describe yourself as a "denier" unless you mean you reject the actual science itself. And if you do, the question of whether it "matters" seems not at all important given that you reject it is h…

For me, I'm sure the climate is changing, partly because of human activity. Where I differ is that I think the impacts of the changing climate will be so small and gradual and so easy to adapt to that it doesn't warrant the massive upheaval to economies that are being prescribed.

Would you say that you believe Samoa or the Maldives, for example, should anticipate a small and gradual change in climate that doesn't warrant a massive upheaval in their economy?
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