SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant infected 16 fully Pfizer vaccinated Guiana gold miners • Hacker News Board

Re: SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant infected 16 fully Pfizer vaccinated Guiana gold miners

#201

Post by thomquaid » Fri, Jul 23, 2021, 10:39 AM UTC

lamontcg wrote: post #71

kaczordon wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s more interesting is that 0/6 of the miners who had natural immunity were re-infected. That points to natural immunity preventing spread. The fact that vaccinated individuals don’t stop transmission means that there is no “public good” from getting vaccinated, it’s solely for personal benefit. Vaccine mandates or checking for vaccination status are pointless because of this.

> The fact that vaccinated individuals don’t stop transmission... No such fact exists. "Vaccination with BNT162b2 reduces transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts in Israel" https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.13.21260393v... > The overall vaccine effectiveness against transmission was 88.5%.

Israel's Minister of Health came out yesterday and said theyre seeing only 39% effectiveness now (delta). Based on prior reporting, Israel's vaccination program seemed to be the best in the world.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-23/pfizer-sh...

Re: SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant infected 16 fully Pfizer vaccinated Guiana gold miners

#202

Post by pigeonhole123 » Fri, Jul 23, 2021, 10:40 AM UTC

lmilcin wrote: post #134

criticaltinker wrote: post #84

As other commenters have noted, this case study further supports the widespread observations that COVID-19 vaccines reduce the chance of severe (symptomatic) illness but do not necessarily prevent infection and transmission. The authors of this study conjecture that the unvaccinated asymptomatic “patient 40” may have been the source of the infections seen in the other fully vaccinated patients - however this was a mi…

> As other commenters have noted, this case study further supports the widespread observations that COVID-19 vaccines reduce the chance of severe (symptomatic) illness but do not necessarily prevent infection and transmission. Your argument that the vaccine stops only symptoms and not the infection is false. If that was true, we would not see countries that practically eradicated the virus instantly after vaccination…

Coparing Jordan and Israel, their new cases and death graphs look very similar. Israel has a 60% vaccination rate and Jordan has 20%. Where did you get this "instantly eradicated" idea from?

Re: SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant infected 16 fully Pfizer vaccinated Guiana gold miners

#203

Post by gibba999 » Fri, Jul 23, 2021, 10:41 AM UTC

timr wrote: post #72

gibba999 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the major one: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v... This one scared me since it was a large, relatively unbiased sample, with before-and-after imaging. It also showed brain damage even in mild cases of COVID19 in >10% of cases. There are a lot of supporting smaller-scale studies too, replicating the same general result. E.g. https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/covid…

> This one scared me since it was a large, relatively unbiased sample, with before-and-after imaging. It also showed brain damage even in mild cases of COVID19 in >10% of cases. It shows no such thing. It's an analysis of MRIs where the authors infer loss of gray matter in specific regions of the brain. This is in no way "brain damage", and representing it this way is leaping to wild conclusions. Lest you not believe…

I think a lot of this comes down to replication, effect size, and sample size.

Yes, there are studies which show virtually everything, but in this case, we have:

- >10% of mild cases reporting long COVID brain fog (without MRIs)

- Visible correlations on MRIs with large n (cited study)

- Lots of small-scale studies / looking at specific cases

- Some understanding of a relevant mechanism-of-action (see: olfactory loss)

Together, that's about as strong evidence as you'd expect after 15 months. We have effect, we have correlation, we have case studies, and we understand why it's plausible.

The big question is whether it strikes vaccinated mild / asymptomatic cases. We don't know. There are a lot of cases like this.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant infected 16 fully Pfizer vaccinated Guiana gold miners

#204

Post by becuzThrowaway » Fri, Jul 23, 2021, 10:42 AM UTC

standapart wrote: post #155

becuzThrowaway wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33964222/

This is not an RCT. The work itself makes this very clear, it's observational, based on what we'll call "pseudo-voluntary" testing. Just provide the RCT for your claims-- this is necessary since the vaccine is known to be effective on a symptomatic level.

Please provide the RCT that shows that vaccinated individuals have similar levels of infection to unvaccinated individuals.

What the RCTs for Pfizer and Moderna showed was that the vaccines reduced the symptomatic infection rate by 95%. But you are misconstruing the language being used if you extend that to say "the vaccine is known to be effective on a symptomatic level". The statement about symptomatic infection just means that it was impractical to have 42,000 people take a COVID nasal swab every day, and therefore they can make no professional scientific statements about the actual rate of infection.

But if you are aware of an RCT that actually established the vaccine as being ineffective at preventing infection, I would love to see it.

EDIT: And yes, I linked to observational data from Israel (TWICE) that showed real-world effectiveness in preventing both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant infected 16 fully Pfizer vaccinated Guiana gold miners

#205

Post by native_samples » Fri, Jul 23, 2021, 10:44 AM UTC

vampirical wrote: post #193

AstralStorm wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re 2. Which programs? Not even polio vaccinations worked to eradicate the virus completely, and these came the closest. Much less BCG or variola (pox). Viruses like flu and coronaviruses, nigh impossible to eradicate. 1 and 3, sure. And mRNA vaccine is not particularly more dangerous than any other type. The cost-benefit is strongly on the side of vaccination there.

native_samples You've been misinformed. We have pre launch studies with 40k+ participants showing no meaningful risk. And post launch when there were exceedingly rare ("This adverse event is rare, occurring at a rate of about 7 per 1 million vaccinated women between 18 and 49 years old. For women 50 years and older and men of all ages, this adverse event is even more rare.") and not unexpected clotting issues vaccine…

I know about the trials. I'm sure everyone does.

Unfortunately, there is evidence that trials under-state risks. Evidence for this is:

1. Safety notices for the vaccines have been edited post launch to start talking about risks of heart inflammation and other problems, which were not detected by the trials but are now common enough to justify people being warned about them.

2. Drug trials appear to regularly understate the scale of side effects and nobody can figure out why: https://sebastianrushworth.com/2021/07/19/do-drug-trials-und...

Additionally, the trials never formally completed, cannot now complete because the control groups have been vaccinated, and some of them excluded whole groups of people e.g. pregnant women, children and in some cases the elderly!

This leads to an absurd situation in which the US CDC is saying that the vaccine is safe for pregnant women simultaneous with Moderna starting trials in pregnant women (who were previously excluded).

And finally, putting all those problems to one side, the issue is actually relative risks. Even if the risk of a vaccine is low, even if similar to or higher than the risks of the thing it's trying to vaccinate you against, it may not make sense to take it. That is just basic cost/benefit analysis.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant infected 16 fully Pfizer vaccinated Guiana gold miners

#206

Post by danhor » Fri, Jul 23, 2021, 10:44 AM UTC

native_samples wrote: post #160

becuzThrowaway wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. First off, we still haven't had the level of death that we had in 1918, and almost certainly won't. Second, the narrative of vaccinated individuals being major spreaders of this disease is false. The virus is evolving due to mutations occurring while hopping from one unvaccinated person to another, full stop.

The UK now has a similar test positivity rate to what it had in November 2020 yet a hugely vaccinated population. If the vaccinated aren't spreading it then you're suggesting that the unvaccinated have become drastically more infectious for no apparent reason and in ways that don't show up in contract tracing data. I think the alternative explanations are more likely to be correct: the vaccine is actually not a vacci…

> you're suggesting that the unvaccinated have become drastically more infectious for no apparent reason

Isn't that the point of concern about the variants? Alpha is vastly more infectious than the original and delta is even more infectious than Alpha, which is the reason why they're able to become the dominant strain in unvaccinated populations (england in early 2021 & india with delta). Both have some immune escape but less than e.g. the gamma variant which hasn't become dominant in most countries with high vaccination rates.

(now, since the covid vaccines don't mean complete sterile immunity, just like all others, increased infectiousness also leads to problems)

The PCR tests do detect the virus if the body fought of the virus immediately, but can also measure the amount remaining (the cycle count) which has a cutoff point. Thus it often doesn't get counted as "infectious".

The antigen tests (the fast, cheap ones) don't trigger on small amounts, also leading to issues and that results in them being more-or-less useless to detect infected vaccinated people.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant infected 16 fully Pfizer vaccinated Guiana gold miners

#207

Post by throwaway210222 » Fri, Jul 23, 2021, 10:46 AM UTC

dot1x wrote: post #133

criticaltinker wrote: post #84

As other commenters have noted, this case study further supports the widespread observations that COVID-19 vaccines reduce the chance of severe (symptomatic) illness but do not necessarily prevent infection and transmission. The authors of this study conjecture that the unvaccinated asymptomatic “patient 40” may have been the source of the infections seen in the other fully vaccinated patients - however this was a mi…

> That being said, IMO there seems to be a growing public opinion that unvaccinated individuals are to blame for the increasing dominance of variants of concern (delta, gamma, etc). This is no coincidence. The media has been directed to _not_ blame vaccines for ANYTHING, as doing so would negatively impact their narrative. It's well known that people vaccinated with leaky vaccines are the breeding ground for super-bu…

> The media has been directed to _not_ blame vaccines for ANYTHING.

Who told Fox News, when did they tell them, who did they tell (individuals, CEO, janitor), how many times did they told them?

Please be specific.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant infected 16 fully Pfizer vaccinated Guiana gold miners

#208

Post by samus » Fri, Jul 23, 2021, 10:46 AM UTC

nikolay wrote: post #172

scotty79 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is possible that covid gives you brain damage even if you have mild symptoms https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-survivors-gray-matt... Not sure if vaccines prevent any of this. They surely prevent damage by reducing infection rates in fully vaccinated, but not sure if they can save you from damage, same way they are saving you from death if you contract the virus anyways. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1…

My point is that many restrictions are removed for fully-vaccinated people, i.e. the exposure of these people will increase, i.e. the chance of getting the infection, even if it doesn't take you to the hospital, greatly increases. Even if it's a small percentage, this means many people will get lasting damage. To me, vaccination status should not mean you can take your face mask off - first, you can still get stick,…

It's of course not ideal that restrictions are unduly waived. But it is also recognized that many won't consider taking the vaccine because they don't see how doing so contributes to end the pandemy. Luring them with incentives like entry to bars without testing, or positive monetary rewards, changes the decision making process though. But many places maintain restrictions like mask wearing or mandatory testing for a reason.

Re: SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant infected 16 fully Pfizer vaccinated Guiana gold miners

#209

Post by native_samples » Fri, Jul 23, 2021, 10:50 AM UTC

danhor wrote: post #206

native_samples wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK now has a similar test positivity rate to what it had in November 2020 yet a hugely vaccinated population. If the vaccinated aren't spreading it then you're suggesting that the unvaccinated have become drastically more infectious for no apparent reason and in ways that don't show up in contract tracing data. I think the alternative explanations are more likely to be correct: the vaccine is actually not a vacci…

> you're suggesting that the unvaccinated have become drastically more infectious for no apparent reason Isn't that the point of concern about the variants? Alpha is vastly more infectious than the original and delta is even more infectious than Alpha, which is the reason why they're able to become the dominant strain in unvaccinated populations (england in early 2021 & india with delta). Both have some immune escape…

It's not clear they're actually more infectious. Claims that they are come from invalid methodologies like comparing the growth rate of one variant when it's new against the decline rate of another when it's old, or making assumptions like the one you just made above. Generally, it's good to treat any claim made by the field of epidemiology as suspect. They aren't incentivised to use statistics correctly.

Re: PCR:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8166461/

In light of our findings that more than half of individuals with positive PCR test results are unlikely to have been infectious, RT-PCR test positivity should not be taken as an accurate measure of infectious SARS-CoV-2 incidence. Our results confirm the findings of others that the routine use of “positive” RT-PCR test results as the gold standard for assessing and controlling infectiousness fails to reflect the fact “that 50-75% of the time an individual is PCR positive, they are likely to be post-infectious”

Re: SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant infected 16 fully Pfizer vaccinated Guiana gold miners

#210

Post by vampirical » Fri, Jul 23, 2021, 10:53 AM UTC

native_samples wrote: post #184

vampirical wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your claims are pretty extraordinary and demand extraordinary evidence. How exactly are they not adequate? How are they being treated as if they aren't working? How are they dangerous? The one source you provide is embarrassingly poorly founded. It takes garbage input sources, obscures even the meager data in them and then decreases the quality of the claims even further with misleading representations. Here's just o…

Paragraphs would help me work through your questions. Firstly, the claims aren't extraordinary. There is a long history of vaccines being suspended for being more dangerous than is worth it, for example here's a CNN archival story about that: https://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/30/swine.flu.1976/ind... "ATLANTA, Georgia (CNN) -- The man who led the response to the 1976 swine flu outbreak is defending the vaccinati…

Sorry on a limited device where I can't do much formatting.

You made a pretty explicit claim earlier in this thread "The mRNA vaccines are not "adequate": they are being treated by governments as if they aren't working whilst also being significantly more dangerous than every other vaccine programme out there by a long way". Talking about historic or generalized vaccine ROI is different and is a new claim that isn't really on topic. I have no interest in arguing that all vaccines have always been perfect or that you can't have a generalized concern. Your claim that current mRNA vaccines for an ongoing pandemic are not adequate and are dangerous is an extraordinary claim and do need evidence.

Which brings us back to the point. I went into the analysis of the VAERS data because it needs analysis. It is a fairly raw data set meant for usage and analysis by professionals. We pumped millions of data points in to it this year, seeing a spike doesn't mean anything without analysis. How many people out of the population who were vaccinated were expected to be dying of strokes and heart attacks in the same time period? Here's a great write-up that goes into the details: https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/underreporting-and-po...