My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse” • Hacker News Board

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#21

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jul 15, 2021, 11:35 PM UTC

sillysaurusx wrote: post #11

thewarrior wrote: post #3

I’ve become a follower of the Collapse subreddit. I initially dismissed it as a bunch of alarmist doomers but the more I looked into the more I realized that even if they end up being wrong modern civilization is a lot more fragile than most people think. Climate change, resource depletion and environmental damage all have the potential to severely destabilize the entire system we have built. I really wish we had a l…

I used to be in the “peak oil” scene — and by that I mean, I listened carefully to my friend, who was really into the peak oil scene. It’s an illusion. The world goes ‘round. It’s the same thing humans have done for a hundred thousand years: sit around a campfire telling ghost stories. As long as you don’t take it too seriously, it’s fine to enjoy it. But I think it’s a mistake to get too into the idea that civilizat…

[deleted]

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#22

Post by XorNot » Thu, Jul 15, 2021, 11:36 PM UTC

sillysaurusx wrote: post #11

thewarrior wrote: post #3

I’ve become a follower of the Collapse subreddit. I initially dismissed it as a bunch of alarmist doomers but the more I looked into the more I realized that even if they end up being wrong modern civilization is a lot more fragile than most people think. Climate change, resource depletion and environmental damage all have the potential to severely destabilize the entire system we have built. I really wish we had a l…

I used to be in the “peak oil” scene — and by that I mean, I listened carefully to my friend, who was really into the peak oil scene. It’s an illusion. The world goes ‘round. It’s the same thing humans have done for a hundred thousand years: sit around a campfire telling ghost stories. As long as you don’t take it too seriously, it’s fine to enjoy it. But I think it’s a mistake to get too into the idea that civilizat…

That's making a rather broad claim from a rather specific one, even if the adherents have a lot of ideological overlap.

Peak Oil was predicting a very real phenomenon, but it hasn't happened yet (oil, being finite, will have this happen eventually).

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#23

Post by AnimalMuppet » Thu, Jul 15, 2021, 11:36 PM UTC

sillysaurusx wrote: post #11

thewarrior wrote: post #3

I’ve become a follower of the Collapse subreddit. I initially dismissed it as a bunch of alarmist doomers but the more I looked into the more I realized that even if they end up being wrong modern civilization is a lot more fragile than most people think. Climate change, resource depletion and environmental damage all have the potential to severely destabilize the entire system we have built. I really wish we had a l…

I used to be in the “peak oil” scene — and by that I mean, I listened carefully to my friend, who was really into the peak oil scene. It’s an illusion. The world goes ‘round. It’s the same thing humans have done for a hundred thousand years: sit around a campfire telling ghost stories. As long as you don’t take it too seriously, it’s fine to enjoy it. But I think it’s a mistake to get too into the idea that civilizat…

> But I think it’s a mistake to get too into the idea that civilization is fragile.

Take the US, for instance. The constitution has been in force since 1789. That's 222 years. You don't get to 222 years by not being stable. If the Civil War and the 1960s didn't destroy the US, it's pretty stable.

And yet... we have historical examples of civilizations collapsing. When it happens, it often happens fast (or at least slowly, and then fast). It seems unwise to say that it can't happen to us.

And, sure, social norms can be flexible. Not all problems can be fixed by changing social norms, though. Like, say, drought causing food shortages. Flexible social norms aren't going to solve that; they're just going to lead to looting becoming acceptable.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#24

Post by gmfawcett » Thu, Jul 15, 2021, 11:37 PM UTC

rurp wrote: post #18

reedjosh wrote: post #4

Just read the original paper. This synopsis mostly just reiterates what the original paper says and concurs. I personally don't think we're going to see any collapse as drastic as the models predict. People have been predicting collapse forever, but either way, this article doesn't add much to the paper itself.

But people have been right many, many times about other societies collapsing. All groups collapse, it's just a matter of time. Our ability to create existential threats is extremely new in historical terms. We have very little evidence for how they will be managed, but so far the indications are mostly terrible.

You're saying that people have predicted the collapse of societies many, many times? Which ones?

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#25

Post by johnisgood » Thu, Jul 15, 2021, 11:37 PM UTC

overscore wrote: post #14

thewarrior wrote: post #3

I’ve become a follower of the Collapse subreddit. I initially dismissed it as a bunch of alarmist doomers but the more I looked into the more I realized that even if they end up being wrong modern civilization is a lot more fragile than most people think. Climate change, resource depletion and environmental damage all have the potential to severely destabilize the entire system we have built. I really wish we had a l…

I was an infantry soldier and learnt very fast how fragile the logistics of necessities can be in the modern world. I don't believe that world civilisation will collapse (at least not in any way that can be prepared for), but I have moved out of the city, begun to farm organically, and have a plan to cook and live without mains power or fuel for months on end. I know people think I'm a nutjob, but I've also seen firs…

> live only 1.6m above the high water mark/strand line of the sea.

Wow. I put myself in your shoes for a second and felt fear. Otherwise your life sounds pretty desirable. I always wanted to do the same (be self-sufficient in such ways). I probably will never be living like that (unless homelessness count, bleh), but good for you, I envy you. :)

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#26

Post by fidesomnes » Thu, Jul 15, 2021, 11:37 PM UTC

tanbog4 wrote: post #10

premium-gecko wrote: post #6

The Club of Rome is some odious stuff. It seems to be a group of academic doomsayers who like to play around with toy models in order to justify quasi-communism and other goals related to neo-Malthusian beliefs. They may be the primary progenitors of using toy models to cast the bones and make scary predictions about the future, especially with regard to climate alarmism. From The Limits to Growth : "In searching for…

I guess if you keep saying the same thing will happen repeatability eventually you'll look like you predicted something. Even a broken (analogue) clock tells the right time twice a day.

Guy posts relevant information related to OP. Gets downvoted into oblivion. True HN style.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#27

Post by DoreenMichele » Thu, Jul 15, 2021, 11:38 PM UTC

With information injected into a system, you can do more with less materially. This is a known fact and the internet is a huge injection of information into the world that is accessible to most people to some degree, making knowledge no longer a privilege of the elites.

It is game changing and provides hope for better answers than historical models suggest. Though we do need to work on keeping the quality of info high and on keeping information free as much as possible and that's a constant ongoing battle.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#28

Post by Qem » Thu, Jul 15, 2021, 11:38 PM UTC

sillysaurusx wrote: post #11

thewarrior wrote: post #3

I’ve become a follower of the Collapse subreddit. I initially dismissed it as a bunch of alarmist doomers but the more I looked into the more I realized that even if they end up being wrong modern civilization is a lot more fragile than most people think. Climate change, resource depletion and environmental damage all have the potential to severely destabilize the entire system we have built. I really wish we had a l…

I used to be in the “peak oil” scene — and by that I mean, I listened carefully to my friend, who was really into the peak oil scene. It’s an illusion. The world goes ‘round. It’s the same thing humans have done for a hundred thousand years: sit around a campfire telling ghost stories. As long as you don’t take it too seriously, it’s fine to enjoy it. But I think it’s a mistake to get too into the idea that civilizat…

> It’s the same thing humans have done for a hundred thousand years: sit around a campfire telling ghost stories.

The same thing, but now with 7 billion+ people. It's a lot of deforestation just to feed all these campfires.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#29

Post by brutusborn » Thu, Jul 15, 2021, 11:38 PM UTC

dane-pgp wrote: post #20

> In many ways, this scenario is even gloomier than BAU, and many say that it predicts the dire outcome of allowing climate change to go unchecked. But if they are using the same World3 model, created in 1972, with a single variable representing "pollution", then surely it's just a coincidence if the effects of climate change end up modelled correctly. The climate is a non-linear system, and there certainly weren't g…

Even a sin(x) function can be approximated as a line for small values of x. Potentially the predictions will start to diverge as feedback loops come into effect?

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#30

Post by XorNot » Thu, Jul 15, 2021, 11:40 PM UTC

DesiLurker wrote: post #16

Swizec wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are almost certainly plummeting towards the next collapse of the roman empire. This time "western civilization". But it's not that bad! Rome's collapse took around 100 years, from 376 - 476[1]. If you consider Byzantine as a continuation of Rome, the final collapse didn't happen until 1453 [2]. So it took a full 1077 years for Rome to fall. Plenty of time for our lifetimes to pass in relative comfort. We're, what,…

Well rome didnt see a meteoric rise of technology in 100 or so years before collapse. also modern weaponry could make collapse a lot more interesting than we imagine. I dont agree with a lot of r/collapse but have to accommodate that post ww2 prosperity has brought in a lot of 'global optimizations'. take that away and access to cheap plentiful energy & things could get bad fast.

Rome didn't collapse overnight, it took literally hundreds of years. It was a "collapse" in the sense that the standard of living and technology fell from the previous peak in some regions, but even then, not much of one because Constantinople endured and other empires were untouched (e.g. China).

The only sudden collapse that's possible is the result of a full-scale nuclear exchange that kills most of the major cities on Earth - but the risk of that has steadily decreased sine it's peak around the 60s-70s.

A long, slow multi-generational decline however is quite possible for a place like the US though: the US has an ideological bent that allows it to decide to sacrifice it's own citizens, and that's been growing stronger. Increasing rates of crises due to climate change could definitely lead to some new generational poverty, but that's the point: that's a "collapse" in the true Roman sense, and definitely not in the "I'm going to survive it in my fortified bunker" sense. It's more Americans losing their houses and discovering what it's like to be poor when the bailout money is "efficiently" managed.