My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”
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My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”
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Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”
#2Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”
#3I’ve become a follower of the Collapse subreddit. I initially dismissed it as a bunch of alarmist doomers but the more I looked into the more I realized that even if they end up being wrong modern civilization is a lot more fragile than most people think.
Climate change, resource depletion and environmental damage all have the potential to severely destabilize the entire system we have built.
I really wish we had a lot more rigorous research into this subject.
Here’s an interesting presentation from Marc Jancovici https://youtu.be/Vjkq8V5rVy0
It’s two hours long and you may not agree with some of the alarming conclusions but they have clearly put in a lot of work into their thesis. More people should be aware of these possibilities.
Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”
#4Just read the original paper. This synopsis mostly just reiterates what the original paper says and concurs.
I personally don't think we're going to see any collapse as drastic as the models predict. People have been predicting collapse forever, but either way, this article doesn't add much to the paper itself.
Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”
#5Just read the original paper. This synopsis mostly just reiterates what the original paper says and concurs. I personally don't think we're going to see any collapse as drastic as the models predict. People have been predicting collapse forever, but either way, this article doesn't add much to the paper itself.
I doubt the strength of arguments that go like “people have been saying X forever, but X hasn't happened yet - therefore not X” because it completely ignores evidence for X over time.
Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”
#6The Club of Rome is some odious stuff. It seems to be a group of academic doomsayers who like to play around with toy models in order to justify quasi-communism and other goals related to neo-Malthusian beliefs. They may be the primary progenitors of using toy models to cast the bones and make scary predictions about the future, especially with regard to climate alarmism. From The Limits to Growth:
"In searching for a common enemy against whom we can unite, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like, would fit the bill. In their totality and their interactions these phenomena do constitute a common threat which must be confronted by everyone together. But in designating these dangers as the enemy, we fall into the trap, which we have already warned readers about, namely mistaking symptoms for causes. All these dangers are caused by human intervention in natural processes, and it is only through changed attitudes and behaviour that they can be overcome. The real enemy then is humanity itself."
Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”
#7I’ve become a follower of the Collapse subreddit. I initially dismissed it as a bunch of alarmist doomers but the more I looked into the more I realized that even if they end up being wrong modern civilization is a lot more fragile than most people think. Climate change, resource depletion and environmental damage all have the potential to severely destabilize the entire system we have built. I really wish we had a l…
We are almost certainly plummeting towards the next collapse of the roman empire. This time "western civilization".
But it's not that bad!
Rome's collapse took around 100 years, from 376 - 476[1]. If you consider Byzantine as a continuation of Rome, the final collapse didn't happen until 1453 [2]. So it took a full 1077 years for Rome to fall.
Plenty of time for our lifetimes to pass in relative comfort. We're, what, 10 years, maybe 20 years, into the process of our civilization collapsing?
I think what we're mostly seeing that's giving us the fear of collapse is a slowing of rapid growth after WW2 [3]. We've lived our whole lives in a time of rapid economic growth. Just because that's regressing to the mean doesn't mean the ride's over.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Western_Roman_Empi...
[2] https://www.history.com/topics/ancient-middle-east/byzantine...
[3] slowing growth after "catching up" from WW2 is the core thesis of Capital in the 21st Century
Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”
#8I’ve become a follower of the Collapse subreddit. I initially dismissed it as a bunch of alarmist doomers but the more I looked into the more I realized that even if they end up being wrong modern civilization is a lot more fragile than most people think. Climate change, resource depletion and environmental damage all have the potential to severely destabilize the entire system we have built. I really wish we had a l…
We are almost certainly plummeting towards the next collapse of the roman empire. This time "western civilization". But it's not that bad! Rome's collapse took around 100 years, from 376 - 476[1]. If you consider Byzantine as a continuation of Rome, the final collapse didn't happen until 1453 [2]. So it took a full 1077 years for Rome to fall. Plenty of time for our lifetimes to pass in relative comfort. We're, what,…
Casual 'almost certainly'...
I don't think so.
Anyone know the name of the longstanding psychological phenomenon where people tend to believe they're living through an inordinately pivotal inflection point in history, when in reality: they're 'almost certainly' incorrect?
Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
We are almost certainly plummeting towards the next collapse of the roman empire. This time "western civilization". But it's not that bad! Rome's collapse took around 100 years, from 376 - 476[1]. If you consider Byzantine as a continuation of Rome, the final collapse didn't happen until 1453 [2]. So it took a full 1077 years for Rome to fall. Plenty of time for our lifetimes to pass in relative comfort. We're, what,…
Casual 'almost certainly'... I don't think so. Anyone know the name of the longstanding psychological phenomenon where people tend to believe they're living through an inordinately pivotal inflection point in history, when in reality: they're 'almost certainly' incorrect?
I edited to add more context.
Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”
#10The Club of Rome is some odious stuff. It seems to be a group of academic doomsayers who like to play around with toy models in order to justify quasi-communism and other goals related to neo-Malthusian beliefs. They may be the primary progenitors of using toy models to cast the bones and make scary predictions about the future, especially with regard to climate alarmism. From The Limits to Growth : "In searching for…
I guess if you keep saying the same thing will happen repeatability eventually you'll look like you predicted something.
Even a broken (analogue) clock tells the right time twice a day.