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Delta Variant

unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com

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Re: Delta Variant

#361

Post by seriousquestion »

vmception wrote: post #153
franciscop wrote: post #72

The article purposefully conflates numbers to tell a narrative. I am talking only about EU, and at that southern EU which is where I've been following the numbers closely. Delta variant has been acting for up to 1 month in some regions, and as described in the article yes cases are up very quickly. However, the article says: > COVID deaths [...] And if you think Europe or the US will be spared This is not reflected a…

> mixing deaths in one country with infections in another so basically like the last 15 months there is a clear separation of critical thinkers on this planet such that we are almost two different species if it wasnt for the viable offspring

Now the question is how do we correct for this? How do we get the critical thinkers in the headlines and fear merchants on the sidelines?

Re: Delta Variant

#362

Post by null4bl3 »

motohagiography wrote: post #359
blindmute wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great idea, just comply with evil so you can maybe fight it later. But right now, be sure to comply.

I'm glad you mentioned evil, because that's the conversation that isn't being had, and it's the personal belief factor that is driving a lot of private decisions. For us to spout talking points about noisy data just talks around these deeply held beliefs, and I think the only hope is from addressing those directly. I happen to have some rare professional insight into how evil this all may get, but if it's as bad as I…

So just how evil can it get?

Re: Delta Variant

#363

Post by mandmandam »

Barrin92 wrote: post #350
tpoacher wrote: post #145

I honestly don't know how to feel about Tomas Pueyo. He's very opinionated about what he writes, and has gained good readership and influencer status on this topic. It's clear in his writings that he fancies himself as an "amateur of expert insight". He may be 100% correct. He may also be 100% wrong. It's hard to tell (let alone without invoking the conditional fallacy). However, the most lasting impression I have of…

>But all I remember from that TV debate is that his main argument tactic on TV was effectively interrupting all the time by saying "wtf", "people will die because of you" Which was an apporpriate tactic given that the United Kingdom was one of the hardest hit countries in Europe and the entire world. Visible anger in the face of complete and abject failure of an expert class and in the face of a rapidly worsening pan…

No, that is not an appropriate tactic; not in real life and 10x more not on TV.

It may come as a shock to you, but people do not like having their viewpoint challenged by such tactics. It's not very persuasive; if anything it entrenches opposition.

I haven't seen the debate you are referring to so I won't say much more, but there is a l a r g e space between being civil and "interrupting all the time by saying "wtf", "people will die because of you".

Disclaimer: I don't think this guy is legit, based on his cherry-picking of numbers and facts, and his over the top fear-mongering style.

Re: Delta Variant

#364

Post by polygotdomain »

jibbit wrote: post #319
polygotdomain wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of other factors in determining concern including one's individual risk factors. But there's also a difference between concern and fear. Unfortunately I've seen people who are vaccinated express fear and reluctance to participate in normal activities with other vaccinated individuals due to the Delta variant. If we're looking for zero risk from Covid, we won't be finding it for years.

So you would advise those people not to fear the Delta variant, because catching it is inevitable, and probably won't kill you?

I would advise people to get vaccinated, as that's the best protection against all strains of COVID and the best chance for the pandemic to be brought to an end.

I'm not sure why you seem so insistent that I should be fearing the Delta variant, but if you're convinced that you should, then by all means.

Re: Delta Variant

#365

Post by kuraudo »

specialp wrote: post #242
bamboozled wrote: post #165

As a reader of HN for several years now, it blows my mind how polarized we all are on this issue. Something smells here, you're not allowed to question anything without being down voted to oblivion, one way or another. Why?

It is tribalism at work. Like if one takes a nuanced opinion and says "Maybe if loads of people are not dying and there's going to be no end to COVID, we should not lockdown again and again forever" You are then "them". The irrational COVID is a hoax, anti-vaxers, and get downvoted. Unfortunately well educated knowledgeable people are falling prey to this tribalism as well. I don't view a pandemic as at all political…

I think part of the problem people are having with the vaccines which have proven to be well-tested and safe is that there is already a non-insignificant portion of the populace that thinks most vaccines are unsafe by nature.

Re: Delta Variant

#366

Post by kuraudo »

effie wrote: post #259
bamboozled wrote: post #165

As a reader of HN for several years now, it blows my mind how polarized we all are on this issue. Something smells here, you're not allowed to question anything without being down voted to oblivion, one way or another. Why?

I've noticed this is not U.S. specific, so it is not a political polarization in the traditional sense. The broader world-wide phenomenon, visible also here, is that most people got divided into two camps: 1) "COVID-19 is so dangerous that we must restrict freedoms", "the other camp is a harm to society's health" 2) "COVID-19 is not that dangerous, mortality below 2% (or even lower depending on how it is calculated)…

Your point is well taken: I want to argue with you that Camp 2 will never be seen as correct, but as I see restrictions lifted despite the large number of unvaccinated individuals which remain, I can't help but wonder if it will actually play out as you say.

Re: Delta Variant

#367

Post by mandmandam »

api wrote: post #318
throwaway316943 wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That entirely depends on the selection pressure being applied. A vaccine that only targets the spike protein is a great way to select for a mutation with a different spike protein. Limiting human contact selects for strains that can infect during short periods of exposure… oops.

Vaccination means you don't need to limit exposure so much, which reduces selection for casual transmissibility. It also means the existing un-mutated virus has far less of an opportunity to "experiment" and mutate further.

> It also means the existing un-mutated virus has far less of an opportunity to "experiment" and mutate further.

You seem to be ignoring the time variable. If wide-spread vaccination slows the spread, then the spread lasts longer, unless and until the virus is totally eradicated.

Re: Delta Variant

#368

Post by vladTheInhaler »

effie wrote: post #259
bamboozled wrote: post #165

As a reader of HN for several years now, it blows my mind how polarized we all are on this issue. Something smells here, you're not allowed to question anything without being down voted to oblivion, one way or another. Why?

I've noticed this is not U.S. specific, so it is not a political polarization in the traditional sense. The broader world-wide phenomenon, visible also here, is that most people got divided into two camps: 1) "COVID-19 is so dangerous that we must restrict freedoms", "the other camp is a harm to society's health" 2) "COVID-19 is not that dangerous, mortality below 2% (or even lower depending on how it is calculated)…

There are a few issues here.

1) COVID-19 is not a static, singular disease. Now that it is circulating widely in the human population it has the potential to mutate, as it already has several times. SARS had a mortality rate on the order of 10%. MERS was above 30%. Part of the miscommunication seems to come from camp 2 assuming that things will largely continue as they are, while those remaining in camp 1 are saying "If we let this keep going, things could get much worse".

2) What about people who aren't healthy and young? Do we just permanently shut immunocompromised people out of society?

3) Developing a vaccine is not the same as actually getting the population vaccinated, as the last six months have demonstrated. Nobody in camp 1 wants society to stay locked down for its own sake. If 99% or even just 80% of the population was vaccinated, I think you would find a huge majority of camp 1 move to camp 2. Unfortunately the attitude of camp 2 has turned out to be the biggest obstacle to actually getting that done.

Re: Delta Variant

#369

Post by kuraudo »

specialist wrote: post #277
throwaway316943 wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even easier would be simply admitting they were wrong about the previous guidelines and explaining why, you know like grown ups.

They did. Repeatedly. Further, many exposés and post mortems are in progress. The Premonition https://www.amazon.com/Premonition-Pandemic-Story-Michael-Le... Uncontrolled Spread: Why COVID-19 Crushed Us and How We Can Defeat the Next Pandemic https://www.amazon.com/Preparing-Inevitable-Normal-Survive-E... Preventable https://www.amazon.com/Preventable-Leadership-Failures-Selfi... Move on.

The problem is that the people admitting these mistakes were not necessarily the political figures advocating them to the populace at large. I imagine a fair bit of opposition to the safe vaccines we are able to enjoy is due to skepticism of political figures not owning up to their initial false statements. For example, I distinctly remember the former president stating loudly and repeatedly that Coronavirus was no big deal (paraphrasing), that it would disappear overnight, that the United States was well prepared for it, and so on. I do not recall any mea culpa's being issue: just one new bold statement after the next.

To be fair to our conservative friends, I'm sure this behavior is not limited to only one political party.

Re: Delta Variant

#370

Post by mandmandam »

throwitaway1235 wrote: post #345
ceejayoz wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What percentage of men under 40 have had a cardiovascular event, specifically myocarditis, after taking the Phizer or Moderns shot? https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/new-information-for-pare... > Doing the math, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) notes that for every million doses given, there have been 67 cases of heart inflammation in boys 12 to 17 (nine in girls of that age group), 56 in thos…

Thank you for providing numbers.

Here, try numbers from an actual study:

"Clot risk to 18-39s from AstraZeneca vaccine is twice as high as Covid death risk, Euro study finds" - https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40328123.html

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