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Delta Variant

unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com

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Re: Delta Variant

#111

Post by cies »

cute_boi wrote: post #10

I see the article is well written. The problem is developed countries are doing nothing significant. They think if they vaccinate their population they are good. And they are supplying only some excess vaccines to developing countries which is like drop in bucket. And they are stuck on patents, greediness and all of these thing. I don't think the country where I live will have vaccines till 2023 and people here are a…

This whole thing is about selling as many vaccines as possible. Actually fixing the problem does not create wealth for shareholders.

>greediness

You cal that greediness, I call it markets functioning well /s

Re: Delta Variant

#112

Post by shkkmo »

raphlinus wrote: post #92
shkkmo wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The evidence cited in the article is not just looking at prevalence graphs, it is a study that looks at within household transmission rates and thus public social distancing and mask wearing would have no effect. And your [3] source explicitly warns against using their findings to compare infectiousness. > I don't believe 'infectiousness" is necessarily the ideal term here. B.1.1.7 (Alpha) could be intrinsically more…

Let me speak to the second criticism (I'm not sure I fully understand the first one). The quote in context from the paper is: "there is no significant difference between B.1.1.7 and non-B.1.1.7 viruses in total infectiousness predicted by our model" But "predicted by our model" is doing considerable work here, as the model doesn't take into account potential differences in what happens after someone is exposed to the…

Then don't extrapolate viral load to transmissibility like you did in your original comment. Stick to refuting the specific claims that you actually have evidence to address.

If you don't understand my summary of the first point, then read the source the article cited for the claim that delta is 60% more transmissible:

https://khub.net/documents/135939561/405676950/Increased+Hou...

Re: Delta Variant

#113

Post by Herodotus38 »

hattmall wrote: post #38

My question is why don't we have treatment? Yes we know vaccines are good as preventative but we also know that vaccines are vulnerable to mutations and waning efficacy over time. It's also somewhat burdensome to need to vaccinate all people all the time. Where is the research into effective treatments and why do we seem to prefer mass vaccination over acute treatments for the sick. Is it just much more difficult to…

We have been, it’s just not published as much in the newspapers because it is niche medicine effective in the hospital setting. There are a few proven treatments that can be given early (antibody therapy) and a large host of treatments being studied.

If you google “nih covid treatment guidelines” you can read the official US 355 page pdf of the current treatments with summaries and more in depth.

Overall mortality in the hospital has improved quite a bit, by my estimate from ~10-15% to 5-10%, which may not seem like much but is 50% improvement in about one year! (Edit: I want make sure I point out that this is from a US medium sized city hospital viewpoint, there are biases in my view).

Re: Delta Variant

#114

Post by nhod »

FWIW, I’ve been fully vaccinated (Moderna) since March. I was just in Provincetown, MA for the usual yearly 4th of July celebration with 10K other gay men, and Delta ripped through everyone. I got breakthrough COVID, which I assume is Delta because the symptoms were much more like the common cold than classic COVID. I probably know ~150 people in that group, and at least 14 people I know got breakthrough COVID. Meanwhile back here in LA I found another 5 people (trainers and members) in my very small, outdoor gym got breakthrough COVID. Everyone I know is fine health wise, no hospitalizations, and it was more annoying than anything, but it does indicate anecdotally that Delta is not going to go well.

Re: Delta Variant

#115

Post by cies »

ceejayoz wrote: post #50
hattmall wrote: post #38

My question is why don't we have treatment? Yes we know vaccines are good as preventative but we also know that vaccines are vulnerable to mutations and waning efficacy over time. It's also somewhat burdensome to need to vaccinate all people all the time. Where is the research into effective treatments and why do we seem to prefer mass vaccination over acute treatments for the sick. Is it just much more difficult to…

We have gotten a lot better at treating COVID patients since the first couple of months, as we figure out which interventions work and which don't. Stuff like putting patients prone made a surprisingly large difference in the mortality rate. Drugs like antivirals are "vulnerable to mutations and waning efficacy over time" just like vaccines are, and they're a lot harder to make.

Which one is harder to make?

Re: Delta Variant

#116

Post by f38zf5vdt »

ginko wrote: post #105
tremon wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and we are past the potential 2-week delay from cases to deaths Not everywhere. See here, for example: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherland... The Netherlands went from 550 cases/day at the end of June to 10,000 cases/day now. The Delta variant took less than two weeks to spread as much as the EU variant did in two months (Sep 1st - Nov 1st). Of course, it was helped a lot by the government de…

Still, the UK is quite a bit into the delta wave and the number of deaths have barely budged: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

That is not surprising. UK targeted very high vaccination rates for those most likely to die from the disease.

> As of 4th July, 2,118,096 (93.8%) of the clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) population have been vaccinated with at least one dose. This includes all CEV individuals, even if they were vaccinated as part of a higher priority cohort. Of those, more than 9 in 10 (2,046,244, 96.6%) have received a 2nd dose (90.7% of all CEV individuals).

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sit...

It is a bigger issue in countries like the US where vulnerable populations are refusing the vaccine.

Re: Delta Variant

#117

Post by franciscop »

mediaman wrote: post #106
franciscop wrote: post #72

The article purposefully conflates numbers to tell a narrative. I am talking only about EU, and at that southern EU which is where I've been following the numbers closely. Delta variant has been acting for up to 1 month in some regions, and as described in the article yes cases are up very quickly. However, the article says: > COVID deaths [...] And if you think Europe or the US will be spared This is not reflected a…

I'm not sure how you assess that he is conflating numbers to tell a narrative. Pueyo discusses fatality rates in the article, specifically that the vaccines appear to still be highly effective at preventing deaths (though much less so for infections) and that countries with high vaccination rates are not seeing high death rates even when infections are growing. The only area where he says deaths are getting worse are…

I quoted it, the author warns that we should expect India-level deaths in Europe (that's the clear read from showing mass burning of bodies in India, talking about deaths in India, and saying "if you think Europe or the US will be spared").

But then shows infections growth (not deaths) to prove the point, so yeah it's conflating infections with deaths.

Re: Delta Variant

#118

Post by cloverich »

hattmall wrote: post #38

My question is why don't we have treatment? Yes we know vaccines are good as preventative but we also know that vaccines are vulnerable to mutations and waning efficacy over time. It's also somewhat burdensome to need to vaccinate all people all the time. Where is the research into effective treatments and why do we seem to prefer mass vaccination over acute treatments for the sick. Is it just much more difficult to…

There is a _tremendous_ amount of research into effective treatments (and many more non effective ones, including Hydroxychloroquine). For viruses, treatments not very effective and / or _very_ expensive. Comparatively, vaccines are cheap, highly effective, and extremely safe. _Mass_ vaccination is not just preventative, but curative in the sense that if enough people get vaccinated, the virus literally goes away.

Re: Delta Variant

#119

Post by havkom »

colincooke wrote: post #43
havkom wrote: post #23

”Now, with Delta, it looks like the figures are 64%, 93% and 93% according to Israel, and 79% for symptomatic infection and 96% hospitalization according to the UK.” I doubt these will turn out to be correct numbers. Looking at recent week’s data in Israel possibly paints another picture (keep in mind while parsing the numbers that there are plentiful many more vaccinated in the population than not in the age groups…

There are some statistical concerns with how Israel came up with their numbers, so I would put more faith in other countries results, at least for now. My best guess is that the 64% is for any detectable disease, not symptoms (i.e. you test positive but don't feel meaningfully different), which means the vaccines do their job at quickly eliminating the virus.

Maybe. But I was commenting on the real hospitalization numbers and implied vaccine protection from comparing the ratios 1) hospitilized vaccinated vs hospitilized non-vaccinated [the linked spear sheet] and 2) vaccinated in relevant age brackets vs non-vaccinated in relevant age brackets.

Re: Delta Variant

#120

Post by polygotdomain »

jibbit wrote: post #101
polygotdomain wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recognize that the Delta variant is serious topic for much of the world, but as a vaccinated person in the US it feels more like media hysteria than anything else. As the article states, for vaccinated people, the risk is low and the Delta variant is likely of little concern, especially when cases are as low as they've been since the start of the pandemic here in the US. However, it seems that the media is pushing…

As a vaccinated person - the risk of dying is quite low. That isn't the only criteria i use to decide if something should concern me.

There are plenty of other factors in determining concern including one's individual risk factors. But there's also a difference between concern and fear. Unfortunately I've seen people who are vaccinated express fear and reluctance to participate in normal activities with other vaccinated individuals due to the Delta variant. If we're looking for zero risk from Covid, we won't be finding it for years.
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