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Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

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Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA! Defeatist thinking. As they say, pessimists get to be right, but optimists get to be rich.

It's really not optimism, it's self-delusion that does improve the chance of sucessful outcomes.

If I recall correctly Hayek actually writes about it as some point, I can't recall exactly where though.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#372
post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can't ask a human to have complete focus for hours on end when they're not making any inputs, and then require them to intervene at a moment's notice. That's not how humans work. I agree. Everyone agrees. That's why FSD Beta 9 is closed to the public. My understanding is that only a few thousand approved drivers can use it. > Also, the fact that they're distributing safety critical software to the public as a '…

It’s a public beta, as far as I can tell it’s available to anyone with a Tesla with the FSD package.

This is simply untrue.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#373
Every time I see these kinds of videos and read about Tesla valuation and messaging I can't make up my mind what to think about it. On one hand I find it ridiculous that these kinds of results so far into the development are still making Tesla the most valuable car maker, selling this as FSD with no proof they will ever reach it etc.

On the other hand they secured billions of $ for R&D into FSD and BEV design and brought EV production to scale. Their messaging is way to optimistic (borderline fraudulent) but they are doing better things with the money than the alternatives. Traditional automakers have shown to be completely impotent in this regard. Money is flowing into all kinds of wasteful bullshit (that Tesla is backing BTC makes them less trustworthy in my eyes)

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#374
post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a good point and might have been their rationale, but I would argue it wasn't a very good risk mitigation because while they reduced the risk in one area (being rear ended) they increased their risk elsewhere. Worse yet, it increased the risk in an area more prone to higher severity incidents (e.g., hitting pedestrians - I assume - carries a higher severity than being rear-ended)

There’s a big risk of spine injuries, and a rear end collision might not activate the airbag. Not a simple trade off.

I’m not saying there’s no risk. I’m saying the risk is lower. The same hazards you mentioned are also present to the pedestrian, plus the risk of TBI or death.

The way this analysis is done is that a hazard gets assigned a risk score based severity x probability. I’m saying the severity of hitting a pedestrian is higher. Put another way, if you had to choose between being struck as a pedestrian or rear ended as a driver, which would you choose?

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Elon doesn't operate under the same jurisdiction as us common people. Try calling out a random diver a 'pedo', or perform the most cynical kind of market manipulation (then laughing to the SEC at their face) and your outcome will be very different. It's Animal Farm all over.

It's been a while since I read it... What's the Animal Farm reference here?

"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Elon doesn't operate under the same jurisdiction as us common people. Try calling out a random diver a 'pedo', or perform the most cynical kind of market manipulation (then laughing to the SEC at their face) and your outcome will be very different. It's Animal Farm all over.

It's been a while since I read it... What's the Animal Farm reference here?

Something along the lines of "all animals are equal, but some are more equal than others". Everyone has access to the same legal system, but some people have more access than others.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla has the most advanced self driving software currently in development in the world This is just nonsense. These videos show them at a disengagement every couple miles. Waymo was at that level 10 years ago and is 10000s of times better now.

Waymo only works in a 50 sq mi area [1] and has it’s own issues [2]. So no, this is not nonsense. [1] https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/05/why-hasnt-waymo-expande... [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-57144755

And Tesla FSD is available to what... two dozen parties outside of the company? AFAIK both have extremely limited availability.

Waymo doesn't require frequent human intervention to prevent life threatening situations.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#378

Every time I see these kinds of videos and read about Tesla valuation and messaging I can't make up my mind what to think about it. On one hand I find it ridiculous that these kinds of results so far into the development are still making Tesla the most valuable car maker, selling this as FSD with no proof they will ever reach it etc. On the other hand they secured billions of $ for R&D into FSD and BEV design and bro…

Highly recommend listening to the 3 episode miniseries TrueAnon did on Musk and Tesla. Really eye opening. The dude should be in prison.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#379
post #16

It appears Tesla FSD just ignores things it doesn't understand, which is really dangerous in a production vehicle.

It really doesn't seem to eliminate evaluated outcomes either. It's drive line on the screen is constantly twitching through illegal or impossible maneuvers multiple times while deciding what to do. It seems to lack the ability to converge on a reasonable solution.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#380
post #11

I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads. If I drove like Tesla's FSD seems to based on the videos I've seen, I'd be pulled out of my car and arrested on (well founded) suspicions of "driving while hammered." After a decade of work, it's not capable of doing much beyond "blundering around a city mostly without hitting stuff, but pay attention, because it'll try to hit the mos…

> I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads.

Legislators are slow and ignorant about technology. There's also perception that everyone who dies on a Tesla accident is a tech bro who defeated software safeguards (e.g., chose to ride on the back seat in full self-driving mode).

If automotive history is any guide, scrutiny and regulation only appear after a lot of people get killed. It's not obvious what the threshold will be, with Elon Musk being louder than anyone else in this debate and early adopters being comfortable experimenting with the lives of others.

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