Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails • Hacker News Board

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#341

Post by nullc » Mon, Jul 12, 2021, 10:48 PM UTC

TheParkShark wrote: post #335

cromwellian wrote: post #332

All of the Tesla fanboys saying you don't need LIDAR, RADAR, or Maps as a kind of "ground truth" and you can get by on video only should take this as a huge repudiation of brag by Musk. Look, Radar, Lidar, and Maps aren't perfect. A map can be wrong, Radar can have false echos, Lidar can have issues in bad weather, etc. But if you're depending on visual recognition of one-way signs, having a potentially out-of-date b…

I see this argument a lot. This is a small beta test and I have yet to see anything better on a larger scale. Most drivers shouldn’t be allowed on public roads yet here we are. Why are you so full of fear and anger over this? Isn’t this a place for open discussion?

> I have yet to see anything better on a larger scale

Waymo self-driving is a relatively large scale. It also has blunders but they appear to be far less concerning than Tesla's.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#342

Post by TheParkShark » Mon, Jul 12, 2021, 10:50 PM UTC

nullc wrote: post #338

These aren't even the worst examples I've seen by far-- but I suppose they're the worst people have posted with the latest software. As someone in another thread said: Driving with Tesla FSD is like being a drive instructor for a narcoleptic student driver who is currently tripping balls. I don't want to share a road with these things. I try to stay as far away from every tesla on the road as I can.

Please share them if you have. As someone in another thread said: Tesla has the most advanced self driving software currently in development in the world. If there’s something better you can feel free to share that with your other videos.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#343

Post by deegles » Mon, Jul 12, 2021, 10:52 PM UTC

atoav wrote: post #272

LeoPanthera wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads. It's important to point out that this software is currently only offered as a private beta to deliberately selected testers. Now, maybe they shouldn't be using it on public roads either, but at least it's not available to the general public.

As long as all the people in traffic with this experiment signed this agreement as well, all is good.

"By existing in the vicinity of this vehicle, you consent to Tesla's FSD software holding your life in its hands."

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#344

Post by ricardobeat » Mon, Jul 12, 2021, 10:55 PM UTC

Syonyk wrote: post #11

I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads. If I drove like Tesla's FSD seems to based on the videos I've seen, I'd be pulled out of my car and arrested on (well founded) suspicions of "driving while hammered." After a decade of work, it's not capable of doing much beyond "blundering around a city mostly without hitting stuff, but pay attention, because it'll try to hit the mos…

This is a collection of videos from thousands of hours of driving. I’m sure you can do much worse from human drivers…

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#345

Post by TheParkShark » Mon, Jul 12, 2021, 10:55 PM UTC

CyanLite2 wrote: post #330

Method-X wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla’s margin on the Model 3 is 35%: https://thenextavenue.com/2020/06/10/teslas-model-3-profit-m...

It's not that high once you strip out the bitcoin gains and regulatory credits. https://archive.is/WAvau

Actually BTC gains don’t count, only losses do. They will take a minor hit on their earnings coming up but will still made record revenue and profit, so like Method-X claimed - Tesla has good margins.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#346

Post by deegles » Mon, Jul 12, 2021, 10:56 PM UTC

All the other FSD car companies should sue to get these off the roads since a big enough fuck-up by Tesla will set back the industry for a decade.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#347

Post by rhinoceraptor » Mon, Jul 12, 2021, 10:56 PM UTC

cs702 wrote: post #235

rhinoceraptor wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that it 'only' requires human intervention so rarely is still incredibly dangerous. You can't ask a human to have complete focus for hours on end when they're not making any inputs, and then require them to intervene at a moment's notice. That's not how humans work. Also, the fact that they're distributing safety critical software to the public as a 'beta' is just insanity. How many more people need to die a…

> You can't ask a human to have complete focus for hours on end when they're not making any inputs, and then require them to intervene at a moment's notice. That's not how humans work. I agree. Everyone agrees. That's why FSD Beta 9 is closed to the public. My understanding is that only a few thousand approved drivers can use it. > Also, the fact that they're distributing safety critical software to the public as a '…

It’s a public beta, as far as I can tell it’s available to anyone with a Tesla with the FSD package.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#348

Post by TheParkShark » Mon, Jul 12, 2021, 10:56 PM UTC

raisedbyninjas wrote: post #314

CyanLite2 wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LIDAR cost is coming down, but Tesla has almost no margins on cars. So adding a $500 part per car for LIDAR is out of the question. Even the cheap radar parts were removed from production going forward. However, it's good to see other automakers like Volvo going the LIDAR route on their 2022 electric models and are offering Level3 autonomous driving.

They currently charge $10k for FSD. Even if they don't drop any of their cameras and processing equipment, $500 LIDAR is a 5% increase. Is it just me or are we politely ignoring Musk's reluctance to admit his bold proclamations against LIDAR are the biggest factor in their design decisions.

Andrej Karpathy already explained they were getting too much noise from Radar. Adding LIDAR would only complicated it. Unless you have better knowledge than Andrej Karpathy, I’ll go with his word on this.

Edit: nitrogen I can’t comment directly on yours, so I’ll ass it here. That’s a good goal to have and they tried that for well over two years. They found too much noise and confusion. If Radar says one thing and Vision says another over and over who do you trust? They decided they could train their NN with just Vision. They use LIDAR on test cars to confirm their Vision can recognize distances correctly. In this case I believe cutting out a sensor instead of trying to neuter it is the right decision.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#349

Post by TheParkShark » Mon, Jul 12, 2021, 10:57 PM UTC

CyanLite2 wrote: post #300

AlexandrB wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The monorail posts and planters would be trivially handled by LIDAR. Tesla's aversion to time of flight sensors often strikes me a premature given our level of planning/perception technology.

Even simple highway-mapping that GM/Ford does would've caught this. Every few months they send a LIDAR-equipped van to pre-map highways and common roads and send out OTA updates for their Level2 driving systems. Sounds low-tech but GM/Ford cars aren't driving into concrete posts.

Those obstacles wouldn’t even be on the highway so whats your point?

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#350

Post by alkonaut » Mon, Jul 12, 2021, 10:58 PM UTC

visarga wrote: post #97

Syonyk wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been hearing for years now that this is a Tesla advantage, that they can run in shadow mode, learn from humans, and big data learn all the quirks of the roads so they don't have to learn them in the self driving system. If this has been the case, evidence here is certainly lacking. Turning down a street one presumably hasn't seen a car drive down in this direction? Failing basic stationary obstacle avoidance bec…

It's a cherry picked set of examples you're drawing generalisations from. On any day I can see more reckless driving from humans than I've ever seen online with Tesla.

I thought this was examples from months of driving and thousands of hours, which would have been terrible. But apparently it’s just from a few days testing. That’s unthinkably bad.