“Full Self-Driving Beta” should be an oxymoron. Why is this being allowed?
Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails
291–300 of 502 posts
Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails
#292Earlier quoted context omitted.
What are you proposing? If someone is overweight with high blood pressure and a higher risk for a heart attack we should take away their license? These drivers are vetted and their usage is monitored, many are employees. In the long run automated driving will save many more lives than it takes. Just like automated elevators. https://www.npr.org/2015/07/31/427990392/remembering-when-dr... .
> What are you proposing? If someone is overweight with high blood pressure and a higher risk for a heart attack we should take away their license? This does not seem like an important nit to pick, so I'm wondering why you're picking it. The number of people killed or injured because a driver had a heart attack at the wheel is vanishingly small compared to drunk or distracted driving. So let's reframe your question a…
Clearly it's not that simple, otherwise we'd have done it already.
Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails
#293Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you have redundant AOA sensors on a plane and they disagree what do you do? Alert the pilot. You have to do the same on a self-driving car as well. You can't just ignore a serious malfunction, or pretend to not see it just because you don't know to handle it! To be truly redundant you have to use different technologies, such as camera and lidar.
> If you have redundant AOA sensors on a plane and they disagree what do you do? Alert the pilot. Right, which means it's not a solution for L4/L5 autonomy, only for L2. Tesla is trying to reach L4/L5, so just alerting the pilot is not satisfying the design goal. > To be truly redundant you have to use different technologies, such as camera and lidar. I think that is an opinion and not a fact. Watch a video such as h…
> Tesla is trying to reach L4/L5, so just alerting the pilot is not satisfying the design goal.
Neither is ignoring it. If a product can't meet the design goals under certain circumstances should it ignore it, not even look for it, or alert the user that there is a catastrophic failure?
> I think that is an opinion and not a fact.
I think it is more common sense than anything else.
Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails
#294Earlier quoted context omitted.
Right, so what happens when one says wall, and one says clear air? You brake? That is what happens now with phantom braking. Approaching a bridge? camera sees air, radar sees wall, slam on brakes. You want the best sensor type over a high-fidelity sensor and a lower fidelity sensor. The Tesla system has 8 cameras (3 forward), so they def have overlap between what they are considering better cameras. Time will prove w…
If you have redundant AOA sensors on a plane and they disagree what do you do? Alert the pilot. You have to do the same on a self-driving car as well. You can't just ignore a serious malfunction, or pretend to not see it just because you don't know to handle it! To be truly redundant you have to use different technologies, such as camera and lidar.
>To be truly redundant you have to use different technologies, such as camera and lidar.
This isn't necessarily true. From a reliability engineering perspective it depends on the modes of failure and the probability of each mode. If the probability of an AOA failure is low enough, you can reach your designed risk level by having two identical and redundant components. It all comes down the level of acceptable risk.
Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails
#295I doubt that autonomous driving will work in the next couple of years without infrastructure adjustments. We built roads for cars to replace horses, we will need to built roads for autonmous cars to replace human driven cars.
I live in a place with fairly snowy winters, which seems like a huge problem for self-driving cars. I completely agree with this thought that we should work on making our roads help the self-driving cars. If we had started that effort several years back, we would likely have a lot of road miles that could safely handle self-driving vehicles. If we start now, in several years we'll have a bunch of road miles ready for…
I just don’t see self driving cars taking off for this reason: people want or need to drive even when it’s dangerous to do so.
Self driving cars might well refuse to move in bad conditions (my Prius gets very upset when navigating my overgrown driveway for instance, sometimes slamming on the auto-brake to avoid the plant-pedestrians)
Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails
#296Earlier quoted context omitted.
The monorail video is jaw-dropping. Nine versions in, I would expect ongoing challenges with things like you mention. But continued failure to even see large, flat obstacles is no longer something that needs to be fixed – that it has persisted this long (even after killing someone as in the case of T-boning a semi trailer at highway speeds) is an indictment of the entire approach Tesla has been taking to FSD. I used…
The monorail video is jaw-dropping. Yes. Pause the video and look at the car's screen. There's no indication on screen of the columns. A car on the other side of the row of columns is recognized, but not the columns. It's clear that Tesla has a special-purpose recognizer for "car". The columns are a solid obstacle almost impinging into the road, one that doesn't look like a car. That's the standard Tesla fail. Most h…
LIDAR cost is coming down, but Tesla has almost no margins on cars. So adding a $500 part per car for LIDAR is out of the question. Even the cheap radar parts were removed from production going forward.
However, it's good to see other automakers like Volvo going the LIDAR route on their 2022 electric models and are offering Level3 autonomous driving.
Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails
#297Earlier quoted context omitted.
I live in a place with fairly snowy winters, which seems like a huge problem for self-driving cars. I completely agree with this thought that we should work on making our roads help the self-driving cars. If we had started that effort several years back, we would likely have a lot of road miles that could safely handle self-driving vehicles. If we start now, in several years we'll have a bunch of road miles ready for…
North East in winter has ~0% chance of getting FSD capable in the next 20 years I think. 80% of the population of my hometown can't leave the house for months at a time safely today; let alone automation taking over for that.
Great argument for more rail. Yes there are still conditions that freeze switches but that’s when you run gas lines under the tracks to prevent ice from forming:
https://wgntv.com/news/when-its-this-cold-chicago-sets-its-t...
Weirdest thing that prevents trains from running tho is wet leaves on the tracks, of all things, it’s too slippery.
Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails
#298Earlier quoted context omitted.
The monorail video is jaw-dropping. Yes. Pause the video and look at the car's screen. There's no indication on screen of the columns. A car on the other side of the row of columns is recognized, but not the columns. It's clear that Tesla has a special-purpose recognizer for "car". The columns are a solid obstacle almost impinging into the road, one that doesn't look like a car. That's the standard Tesla fail. Most h…
> As I've been saying for years now, the first job is to determine that the road ahead is flat enough to drive on. Then decide where you want to drive. I did the DARPA Grand Challenge 16 years ago, which was off-road, so that was the first problem to solve. Tesla has lane-following and smart cruise control, like other automakers, to which they've added some hacks to create the illusion of self-driving. But they just…
The flickering is concerning. Kind of suggests their NN hasn’t learned basic object persistence yet.
Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails
#299Earlier quoted context omitted.
I just don’t understand why people think a robot can improve on this. If you want to save lives, lower speed limits, build out public transit, and don’t hand out drivers licenses like candy.
I don't only want to save lives, I want to maximize utility. I think driving less would raise utility, but society disagrees, so this is the next best option.
Right, fair point, people drive 80mph because they have someplace to be. I’m perennially bummed that America can’t figure out how to build high speed rail for less than $100 Million per mile.
Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails
#300Earlier quoted context omitted.
The monorail video is jaw-dropping. Nine versions in, I would expect ongoing challenges with things like you mention. But continued failure to even see large, flat obstacles is no longer something that needs to be fixed – that it has persisted this long (even after killing someone as in the case of T-boning a semi trailer at highway speeds) is an indictment of the entire approach Tesla has been taking to FSD. I used…
The monorail posts and planters would be trivially handled by LIDAR. Tesla's aversion to time of flight sensors often strikes me a premature given our level of planning/perception technology.
Even simple highway-mapping that GM/Ford does would've caught this. Every few months they send a LIDAR-equipped van to pre-map highways and common roads and send out OTA updates for their Level2 driving systems. Sounds low-tech but GM/Ford cars aren't driving into concrete posts.