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Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

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Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#321

Post by pjc50 »

CyanLite2 wrote: post #296
Animats wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The monorail video is jaw-dropping. Yes. Pause the video and look at the car's screen. There's no indication on screen of the columns. A car on the other side of the row of columns is recognized, but not the columns. It's clear that Tesla has a special-purpose recognizer for "car". The columns are a solid obstacle almost impinging into the road, one that doesn't look like a car. That's the standard Tesla fail. Most h…

LIDAR cost is coming down, but Tesla has almost no margins on cars. So adding a $500 part per car for LIDAR is out of the question. Even the cheap radar parts were removed from production going forward. However, it's good to see other automakers like Volvo going the LIDAR route on their 2022 electric models and are offering Level3 autonomous driving.

This seems backwards; it's a premium feature, the sort everyone else is adding to increase margins.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#322

Post by matz1 »

cogman10 wrote: post #217
matz1 wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>They MUST be perfect for the general public to accept them No they don't, its far from perfect right now yet its available and you can use it right now provided you have money to buy it.

Incorrect. What you can buy now is driver assist. I'm talking about actual "no driver at the wheel" driving. AFAIK, the closest there is WAYMO, but they are geo-fenced. There's also some fixed route low speed buses out there. However, there's no self driving you can purchase which allows you to, for example, nap while the car is driving.

To get to the so called "no driver at the wheel" driving you have to go through what you called "driver assist" stage, its a continuous improvement.

So are you saying people accept it in the far from perfect driver stage now but won't accept it when it become so much improved "no driver at the wheel" stage ?

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#324

Post by dyingkneepad »

barbazoo wrote: post #132
AndrewBissell wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You would think that just the name "Tesla Full Self Driving Beta 9.0" would be giving people some pause here.

I thought you were making a joke but it really seems to be called "Full Self Driving Beta 9.0". It's hillarious, do they think by adding the "Beta" it makes it ok to hit stuff unless the driver intervenes instantaneously?. How are they even allowed to call it "FSD" ( Full self driving) if in fact it doesn't do that at all?

Well, everything is Beta these days! Is gmail still beta? I wouldn't be surprised to find out Playstation 5 is still marked as Beta.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#325

Post by CyanLite2 »

specialist wrote: post #96
stsmwg wrote: post #29

One of the questions I've repeatedly had regarding FSD (and Tesla's approach in particular) is the notion of memory. While a lot of these scenarios are disturbing, I've seen people wavering on lanes, exits and attempting to turn the wrong way onto one-way streets. People have memory, however. If we go through the same confusing intersection a few times, we'll learn how to deal with that specific intersection. It seem…

My thoughts exactly. I've made those mistakes myself, many times. I guess I sort of assumed that Tesla would do three things: - Record the IRL decisions of 100k drivers. - Running FSD in the background, compare FSD decisions with those IRL decisions. Forward all deltas to the mothership for further analysis. - Some kind of boid, herd behavior. If all the other cars drive around the monorail column, or going one direc…

Pretty simple that an official Tesla employee could confirm that at this location, there's a giant concrete pillar here. Or worst case, at this location deactivate FSD and require human decision until you're outside of this geofenced area. They could do that with a simple OTA update. GM/Ford have taken this approach.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#326

Post by atoav »

cs702 wrote: post #282
atoav wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do the people sign that share the roads with those people? Or are they just colateral? A closed beta needs to happen on private roads. If it happens on public roads it is not a closed beta.

> What do the people sign that share the roads with those people? Some of the videos show drivers having to agree to take full responsibility for all driving.

That disn't answer my question. A private company should test their product on private roads.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#327

Post by foobarbazetc »

Syonyk wrote: post #11

I don't understand how something this broken is allowed to operate on public roads. If I drove like Tesla's FSD seems to based on the videos I've seen, I'd be pulled out of my car and arrested on (well founded) suspicions of "driving while hammered." After a decade of work, it's not capable of doing much beyond "blundering around a city mostly without hitting stuff, but pay attention, because it'll try to hit the mos…

The thing is... everyone knows this.

The people writing the code, the people designing the cars, the people allowing the testing, etc etc.

What we're seeing in these videos is basically unusable and will never be cleared to drive by itself on real roads.

It's just the "the last 10% takes 90% of the time" adage but applied to a situation where you can kill the occupant of the car and/or the people outside it. And that last 10% will never be good enough in a general way.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#328

Post by cogman10 »

matz1 wrote: post #322
cogman10 wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incorrect. What you can buy now is driver assist. I'm talking about actual "no driver at the wheel" driving. AFAIK, the closest there is WAYMO, but they are geo-fenced. There's also some fixed route low speed buses out there. However, there's no self driving you can purchase which allows you to, for example, nap while the car is driving.

To get to the so called "no driver at the wheel" driving you have to go through what you called "driver assist" stage, its a continuous improvement. So are you saying people accept it in the far from perfect driver stage now but won't accept it when it become so much improved "no driver at the wheel" stage ?

Correct.

I'm saying that the "no driver at the wheel" stage must be flawless. I've seen some claims that it's "Good enough if it's x times better than a human driver" or "can drive n number of miles without an accident". However, both of those are not the metrics to measure.

A "no driver at the wheel" package is good enough when it doesn't run over the neighbor's cat or Timmy on the street. Humans today make that mistake all the time, but that's not a mistake a driverless car can make and get away with. Consider, for example, Uber's killed pedestrian. Sure, it was a tough scenario and the driver wasn't paying attention. But the fact of the matter is everyone had the expectation that the Uber car would not hit that pedestrian even if they were really hard to see.

Until that happens, nobody will accept "no driver at the wheel" cars... except maybe in tightly controlled routes/geofences. Otherwise, SDC will require a driver to be attentive at the wheel at all times. That is, telsa's FSD is a very long way away from being able to hit that "telsa taxi service" that elon has pitched. I doubt it can make it with the current sensor set (not enough redundancy).

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#329

Post by AshamedCaptain »

rcxdude wrote: post #286
Syonyk wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could have been equipment failure on the truck - a tie rod end failing or such will create some interesting behaviors. > I believe the argument is the software will improve to eventually be as good or better than humans, and I have a hard time not believing that. I find it easy to believe that software won't manage to deal well with all the weird things that reality can throw at a car, because we suck at software as…

> Humans can write very good software. The Space Shuttle engineering group wrote some damned fine software. They look literally nothing like the #YOLO coding that makes up most of Silicon Valley, and deal with a far, far more constrained environment as well than a typical public road. Safety-critical software like that used in the space shuttle is incredible expensive for the level of complexity involved (which is no…

And yet such self-driving car is going to kill way more people than the Space Shuttle ever did. Oh, the irony.

Re: Scenarios in which Tesla FSD Beta 9.0 fails

#330

Post by CyanLite2 »

Method-X wrote: post #311
CyanLite2 wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LIDAR cost is coming down, but Tesla has almost no margins on cars. So adding a $500 part per car for LIDAR is out of the question. Even the cheap radar parts were removed from production going forward. However, it's good to see other automakers like Volvo going the LIDAR route on their 2022 electric models and are offering Level3 autonomous driving.

Tesla’s margin on the Model 3 is 35%: https://thenextavenue.com/2020/06/10/teslas-model-3-profit-m...

It's not that high once you strip out the bitcoin gains and regulatory credits. https://archive.is/WAvau
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