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9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

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221–230 of 253 posts

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#221
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm probably missing something, but I don't see how driving the marginal cost of human necessities (food, shelter, clothing, health care, education) to zero is anything but a good thing. Is the world worse off because we have innumerable, self-replicating automated "robots" (plants) which, for free, convert carbon dioxide back into oxygen? Should we prefer a universe where humans must do this themselves? Now what if…

I think you're operating from the assumption that the fruits of automation will somehow find their way to the population at large. That won't necessarily happen. It's quite possible that the advantage will go entirely to those who own and manage the businesses that automate their operations. (And indeed, some would say this is happening now.) If automation reaches its endpoint, where no human labor is necessary, how…

Thanks for the reply. Yep, I'm assuming that the benefits will get shared (which is not guaranteed) but I think capitalism and exising human charity will work. Here's my amateur economic analysis:

If you can supply widgets more cheaply, you can underprice the competition and capture the market (I'm talking more about basic commodities for survival, food, clean water, shelter, etc.). And of course the other companies will compete, have better robots, etc. and you'll have a race to the bottom (this even happens with 'luxury' goods like USB drives). If I can provide aluminum for cheaper, I can flood the market with it (which drives prices down, but I get the profit).

Secondly, we have plenty of charities -- if advanced labor saving devices existed, governments and others would funnel exising funds to acquire them and put them to use. Why pay for food stamps when you can give everyone their daily bread?

I think capitalism based on survival would eventually have to phase itself out -- it would move to virtual currency where people traded currency for optional goods/services they couldn't acquire with the machines (handcrafted xyz, live concert tickets, etc.).

I may really be on this plant thing, but I imagine a world where, at minimum, we get food/water "for free" from the tireless robotic background workers (like air) and everything else is based on human interest. I think humans have enough demonstrated charity to donate something like that once developed.

But, I think the bigger threat is this: a world where robots are advanced enough to provide everything is probably one where a sufficiently powerful country could take over everything.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#222
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm probably missing something, but I don't see how driving the marginal cost of human necessities (food, shelter, clothing, health care, education) to zero is anything but a good thing. Is the world worse off because we have innumerable, self-replicating automated "robots" (plants) which, for free, convert carbon dioxide back into oxygen? Should we prefer a universe where humans must do this themselves? Now what if…

I think what you are missing is the in between phase where scarcity still exists, but the best way to produce scarce outputs does not involve humans, besides those who own or run the scarce-output-production entities. This seems to me to either produce societies with wild inequities between a very few producers and a very many do-nothings, or the types of socialist utopias that we appear to be really horrible at as h…

Good point -- thinking out loud, it seems to me that automation would just drop the price of goods.

Imagine Moore's law applied to food and transportation -- wouldn't grocery stores and fedex have to lower their prices to match competitors? Suddenly food becomes cheaper and cheaper, until you can buy a lifetime supply of rice for $5 (unfathomable today, but you can buy a "lifetime supply" of textual data storage for probably the same price).

I mean, there could be collusion and cartels to restrict supply (diamonds), but something as important as food production wouldn't be kept restricted long (food could become a utility).

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Edit: Now that I think about it, on a slightly unrelated note, why don't universities have mandatory internships anymore? The more, the better." Some do. I went to the University of Waterloo - it's well known for its co-op system (i.e. internships). The program I was under put you through 5-6 4-month internships before you could graduate. Linky McLink: http://cecs.uwaterloo.ca/ I have to say, it is by far the best…

Not at all. Internships are a valid option (well, as long as they're paid), but they certainly are not the only option. You could be contributing to one of the open source projects out there, participating in research on campus, or doing inter-professional projects if your school offers them. When it comes to education and employment, there is no single right way of doing things.

Respectfully disagree - if your goal is private sector employment.

If you want to go down the academia path, I'm sure the optimal course of action is different, but for private sector employment it doesn't get better than internships.

I've done a lot of interviewing, and while open source projects are valuable, they are largely not as valuable to a company as real industry experience. Now, this differs in degrees - if you're a core contributor to a well known library for example, I'd give that a lot more credence than "hacked on various open source things".

Research on campus also pales in effectiveness to industry experience. Software in industry has a lot of constraints and differences to hacking on your own time, at your own pace, and similarly has a lot of differences to academia.

This is supported by my interview experiences - I interview a lot of masters-level people with impressive rosters of research projects on their resumes, but many of them cannot code at all, to the point where I wonder what exactly they contributed to these projects, if anything. On the other hand, I've never interviewed someone way out to lunch who has a background interning at the "big names" (e.g., Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, etc).

Having a company with a very high hiring bar on your resume is like a gigantic stamp of approval - people know these companies hire tough, and if you passed their bar (and spent time there, and didn't get fired), you automatically have more cred than someone who worked on anonymous FOSS projects or his/her own projects.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I strongly suspect that a public health option would blow the job market wide open ..." Excellent argument for real reform to health insurance access.

There are other ways to achieve the goal of breaking the link between employment and healthcare without a public insurer. Public insurers eventually become the predominant insurer by a large margin because they can use their size to obtain lower prices. Markets with few buyers or sellers are less efficient at providing the products people want at the prices they want than those with many. The result in this case woul…

Except that nations with socialized health care have single or few providers yet manage to get extremely low prices because they have the negotiation power of an entire nation behind them and lots of alternative providers.

Your theory may be interesting but is completely opposite from reality.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#225
post #90
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So attempting to help someone learn English isn't helpful? That seems odd.

You didn't even tell him the right word -- if you wanted to help him learn English, you might say something to the effect of: queue -- noun. A first-in, first-out data structure, such as a supermarket line, or processes to be scheduled naively. cue -- verb. To prepare for, to bring up, to introduce, typically used as a command. Also noun. an indication that it is time to do something, cf. "that's our cue!". Also used…

The thing that bugs me here is that if you honestly consider it, in some situations either word could be used for more or less the same effect.

For example: "Cue the complaints". Surely "Queue the complaints.", meaning that the complaints should start lining up, gets across the same meaning (which is of course "oh great, here come complaints").

This doesn't always work of course ("That's our queue" has an entirely different meaning), however where I see most complaints about "mis-usage", either actually works.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#226
Technology and startups which make people redundant is very good, as this way new resources can be easier produced and jobless people are forced for example to start their own businesses/startups and solve other problems, making the world an easier place to live in. Evolution

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#227
post #181

The current unemployment is caused by a lack of demand. It is ridiculous to think that a new unsolvable structural issue with the workforce showed up all of a sudden in the last 3 years. Businesses have money, there is plenty of capital, taxes are low, interest rates are low, etc. This is not a supply side issue and it is not a "structural" unemployment issue. If there was demand there would be full employment again.

Well maybe the 2008 recession pushed companies to automate the jobs to cut cost, and made that people that were barely holding on to their jobs now are jobless. The underlying structural issue didn't show up all of a sudden - it was there all along - but the recession was the final straw, so to say. Social inertia and all... they simply got a push to do what they were already going to do.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#228

IMO, the problem is much more than just automation and advancement in technology. It's actually far graver, and maybe inexorable at least in the short term. Hate the man or his policies (or both), but you can't deny President Obama's observation that training education is the real problem in the so-called "jobless recovery". America as it currently stands has a total, almost prideful disregard for education (public a…

Every person that I know that has considered starting their own business has decided against it for one reason only, health insurance. They have always been the obtainer in chief of health insurance for the family and it is too risky to go without. I strongly suspect that a public health option would blow the job market wide open between folks who want to retire but can't because health insurance is idiotically expen…

A friend of mine was considering dropping his current job and doing some contract work for a while. He has a wife and two kids, and was worried about insurance. He found that he could insure his entire family with a decent plan for about $450 a month (after spending a little time on http://ehealthinsurance.com/). Now, I'm not saying that's chump change when you're bootstrapping a business on no salary, but that's not insurmountable, either, given some up-front planning and saving.

Would a universal health care system make it even easier? Sure, no doubt. But I often hear that it's so difficult and costly to purchase individual health insurance, and that just seems to be untrue. Are there other factors I'm not considering?

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#229
I feel obliged to quote Robert F. Kennedy here (a few weeks before he was shot):

"[…] Our gross national product […] counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for those who break them. It counts the destruction of our redwoods and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm and the cost of a nuclear warhead, and armored cars for police who fight riots in our streets. It counts Whitman's rifle and Speck's knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children.

"Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages; the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage; neither our wisdom nor our learning; neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country; it measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile. […]"

In short, the GNP doesn't measure what we would really like to optimize, but we optimize it anyway, because it is easier to measure. Just like we would search for our keys under the lamppost, instead of near the car where we lost them.

Unemployment rate is similar. We don't want everybody to work full time. Most jobs are boring and tiring anyway. No, the goal should to reduce mandatory work. Blame Microsoft? Actually we should thank them. The problem is everyone needs a job, or else they grow broke and eventually homeless. Sure, we could try to give a job to everyone, but this is a suboptimal short-term solution. A better way would be to further reduce boring work (technology can do that), and lower the need for jobs at the same time (I don't know how to do it).

I think most HNers understand this: you're most free when you don't need to waste your time "making" money. So let's maximize free time instead of employment.

Re: 9.2% Unemployment? Blame Microsoft.

#230
"No humans. Are you starting to see the picture? I know you want to be hired full time by me. And I want to be doing my part. But please understand: I’m running a business. I want to make profits. And these tools are letting me make more profits by employing people only when I need them rather than carrying them on my payroll."

The Systemic Risk (grossly oversimplified): -------------------------------------------------------

A. -> all businesses in all sectors strive to maximize profits while...

B. -> ...employing less and less people nationwide with shrinking incomes (part-time jobs, smaller paychecks, etc).

A. + B. => Economical collapse in a longer term: you can't have profits (esp. growing profits) out of population being slowly reduced to poverty by increasing pressing trend of partial or full unemployment.

P.S.

No way I buy this article and its arguments from a guy who runs 10-person consulting firm and just writes occasionally. Most consultants (in any disguise) I've met were charlatans - the proverbial borrow-your-watch-to-tell-you-the-time - who were after a fat check for dubious services from a far bigger company with real production, capital, management, and workforce.

Sorry, but Joseph Stiglitz is far more knowledgeable on the matter.

And, by the way, just saying "we use this, we use that" and listing some on-line applications and platforms is not convincing in itself.

P.P.S.

"I know you want to be hired full time by me.."

Well, this is already delusional.

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