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Barry Diller: The movie business as before is finished and will never come back

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Re: Barry Diller: The movie business as before is finished and will never come back

#401

Post by jdavis703 »

jtwaleson wrote: post #183

Ok, here's my problem with the movie theatre industry. There's 100+ years of fantastic historical content and we're not doing anything with it. 99% of what's shown in theaters is new releases. I understand we don't want to "go stale" as a society and that movie producers also need to make a living, but the balance is just way off. I would pay good money to see "the good the bad and the ugly" with my kids in a couple…

There’s a “hipster” movie theater near me that does this. It seems to be moderately successful, but by no means a runaway success. I just don’t think the demand is there for this to be a widespread business.

Re: Barry Diller: The movie business as before is finished and will never come back

#402

Post by robryan »

TrainedMonkey wrote: post #180
IAmGraydon wrote: post #118

Through my work, I have access to Placer.ai, which allows me to track foot traffic to any retail location or chain via visitors' cellphone GPS. Here's AMC's nationwide foot traffic from January 2017 through July 4, 2021. https://i.imgur.com/s3H7EYj.png

Movie industry is largely driven by massive advertisement campaigns. My guess that all of those spikes before 2020 were driven by massive AAA releases with big of ad budgets. Nothing like that happened during 2020. I think it's too early to ring the funeral bell, let's see a few massive releases first.

A lot of those massive releases are Disney though and they seem to be going all in on Disney+. There might be the occasionally cultural moments that generate new box office records, but I’d expect say the average box office return of the top 20 for the year to be in decline.

Re: Barry Diller: The movie business as before is finished and will never come back

#403

Post by lastofthemojito »

snowwrestler wrote: post #398
jtwaleson wrote: post #183

Ok, here's my problem with the movie theatre industry. There's 100+ years of fantastic historical content and we're not doing anything with it. 99% of what's shown in theaters is new releases. I understand we don't want to "go stale" as a society and that movie producers also need to make a living, but the balance is just way off. I would pay good money to see "the good the bad and the ugly" with my kids in a couple…

I can think of at least 4 big movie theaters in DC that did this. The Uptown used to do revivals between big releases. I saw Blade Runner, Ben Hur, 2001, and other classics there. They did not make money on those and had to convert to 100% current releases. I think it is now closed. The Air & Space IMAX theater used to do “Sci Fi Sundays” where they played a classic science fiction movie on Sunday evenings as the las…

I used to live pretty close to the AFI in Silver Spring and while I thought their selection of older movies was pretty great, I didn't end up going terribly often. I think it's linked to the fact that for most people (certainly me), going to the movies is a social occasion (I don't think I've ever gone to a movie theater by myself - I know people do, but I suspect that's a fairly small minority).

Anyhow, marketing does it's job - lots of people have some awareness of new movies coming out, and they're curious about that thing that they've heard about but haven't seen. It just seems tougher to drum up interest to go see Officespace or Edward Scissorhands or Seven Samurai or whatever - "I just saw that on TV", "Seen it a million times", "Never heard of it", etc.

Re: Barry Diller: The movie business as before is finished and will never come back

#404

Post by KptMarchewa »

kbenson wrote: post #396
chrisseaton wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can watch all these anytime on streaming - why do you need a cinema to see them?

Some movies benefit enormously from a shared viewing experience, and the more people the better (to a point). Here's an example of a recent movie which such a moment (there's actually a lot of audience reaction videos to just this singular moment in this movie, which is telling as to how many people feel the same way).[1] This specific example likely wouldn't be quite the same in an older movie where people knew to e…

I think this type of behavior happens only in USA. I can't imagine hearing more than a gasp during movie in my country.

Re: Barry Diller: The movie business as before is finished and will never come back

#405

Post by chipotle_coyote »

karmelapple wrote: post #383
ElViajero wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What argument can one make when the burden of proof is to show cultural regression? First, you will need to give examples of what kind of movies you find "creative" that were done in the past and there is no current equivalent for that level of creativity. "Jojo Rabbit", "Parasite", "Blade Runner 2049", "Coco", "Lady Bird", "Arrival", "The Nice Guys", ... that is the past 5 years with one almost missing because the…

Thanks for reminding me of The Nice Guys. That was well-done... all of these were. Still haven't seen Blade Runner 2049 ... which is the only sequel on that list, so I perhaps that's why!

It is a sequel, but it's really good, with the caveat that it could have stood to have a ruthless studio executive insist the director cut at least thirty minutes. :)

Re: Barry Diller: The movie business as before is finished and will never come back

#406

Post by buu700 »

kbenson wrote: post #349
jelling wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every top comment on HN is someone with an unprofitable use case complaining that no one serves them. Change my mind.

There are theaters that are dedicated to playing older movies, and they apparently turn enough profit to subsist in some locations. I think that makes this a top comment on HN with a profitable use case complaining that there's not enough around. Also, I would watch the shit out of the Good the Bad and the Ugly in a theater. Same with original Star Wars (which I think happened during extra trilogy releases occasional…

I'll go further than this, and say that this is practically the only use case I would have for a movie theater.

As-is, movies air in theaters for only a couple months, and then they're gone. Like, what the hell. Every time in recent memory that I've ever suggested to someone that we go see a movie, I've had to find out that the movie was no longer in theaters, or was even already available for streaming. That's basically a non-starter for people with jobs. Not that I haven't also gone to a theater with no particular movie in mind and just watched whatever was playing, but if anything that seems way more niche to me.

The last times I went to the movies were March 2019 and October 2017, and both of those were special cases (the latest installments in a series I was heavily invested in, Fate/stay night, each with a limited one-day release and a long expected wait before it would be available for illegal download via Blu-Ray rip). I haven't been to the movies with any kind of regularity since I was a teenager.

Anyway, point being, I think movie theaters would actually be more compelling for more people if they included a revolving door of well regarded classics, rather than only whatever films happen to be the latest releases. I'm unlikely to wander into a theater with no idea what's playing or whether any of it is worth watching*, but if I could rely on them also having one or two that were known great and/or on my bucket list (Citizen Kane, Fight Club, Matrix trilogy, Dark Knight trilogy, Star Wars, Pulp Fiction, Schindler's List, Shawshank Redemption, etc.) then I might just take the gamble that something playing will be worth the time.

*: I suspect that this is also a generational gap in play. Older folks who primarily watch traditional TV with ads probably have a much better idea of current and upcoming movies.

Re: Barry Diller: The movie business as before is finished and will never come back

#407

Post by chipotle_coyote »

afavour wrote: post #13

The actual quote (with my emphasis added): > "The movie business *as before* is finished and will never come back." And I think that's correct. Superhero blockbusters taking over all box office receipts was one thing, but now those blockbusters are becoming deeply tied to streaming services like Disney+ that's bringing content into people's homes and away from movie theatres. I won't mourn movie theatres (though I ho…

> ...though I hope places emulate the likes of Alamo Drafthouse and do dinner, drinks and let us make an evening out of watching a movie...

I have a suspicion that this is the direction surviving movie theatre chains will move toward.

Something that hasn't been remarked on too much but that I think might be significant is that a long-standing antitrust regulation that prevented movie studios (the "Paramount Decree") from owning their own theatre chains was sunsetted in August 2020, which means that starting in August 2022 studios can start running their own theatres again -- and I think that's very likely to happen. Disney won't just tie their blockbusters to Disney+, they'll tie them Disney-owned theatres that provide theme park like experiences. Other studios will join in on this.

> It makes me feel like a grouch to complain about the uber-popular, widely loved thing but this intertwined superhero universe exhausts me. I don't want to have to watch three previous movies and two TV shows to fully enjoy the movie that's in front of me.

Despite mostly really enjoying said superhero universe, I've been feeling that recently, too. I can't help but suspect this has a point of diminishing returns; next year we're going to be entering a "phase" of the MCU that's going to build not only on the past twenty-odd movies but now the past Disney+ streaming shows.

Re: Barry Diller: The movie business as before is finished and will never come back

#408

Post by ctdonath »

Y_Y wrote: post #288
ctdonath wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The local cinemas have at most a dozen movies available at any one time, maybe one of which is interesting. One viewing requires $10-50 in assorted expenses. For $10-50 monthly, I have available approximately every movie ever made - and I don’t have to leave this chair. That is, at any given moment, one good movie vs all movies ever . Data sufficient.

Certainly not. Even the most torpid of us doesn't find the time or interest to watch all movies ever . Must likely the major cost here isn't your subscription fee, but the amount of limited leisure time and energy you can allocate. I'd be doing well too watch one movie a week if I was trying and I'd say that's not much to worse than average.

It’s not that I can watch all movies ever, it’s that I have all ever to choose from. Every movie I watch can be great, thanks to streaming.

Re: Barry Diller: The movie business as before is finished and will never come back

#409

Post by xanaxagoras »

I can count the number of times I've been to a theater in the last 10 years on one hand. I ended up seeing The Lorax in theaters when it came out for some work thing. I was there to be entertained, I didn't like being lectured at.

Things are much, much worse now.

You all do what you want, I'm more than happy with old movies.

Re: Barry Diller: The movie business as before is finished and will never come back

#410

Post by lostlogin »

ftio wrote: post #286
lostlogin wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I rarely go to movie theaters because what is available on streaming is so much better, it's not a close call. Better seats, better sound (for me this means not being deafened), better food, better drinks, better price (and no dick moves to get a few more $), no parking issues, less annoying lights/sounds etc from other patrons. I also haven’t seen a theatre with a wood burner. It misses is the feeling of it being…

The open-mouthed chewing, soda slurping, and bag rustling is unbearable for me. It completely takes me out of the film, particularly during quiet scenes.

My killer feature at home is volume levelling or whatever you call it when you quieten the load bits and raise the volume of the quiet parts.

I’m using some Sonos thing to do it, but I’m sure there are loads of variant (presumably with the Sonos proprietary crap).

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