Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

sfgate.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

101–110 of 362 posts

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#101

Post by [deleted] »

hpoe wrote: post #27
xadhominemx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

Just my little data point but I moved into a sleepy little ID town that has a lot of people that have moved here from SoCal, and of the 5 people I asked "what brought all the way up to Idaho from California?" 4 of them commented on how expensive California was and the high cost of living. 3 of them also stated that they didn't like how things were happening in Cali. Again small anecdotal data point but take it for wh…

[deleted]

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#102

Post by saltcured »

thebradbain wrote: post #95
almost_usual wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who are in between jobs and thinking of moving to where they grew up I hear the opposite, people cannot afford where they grew up. Most people from the Bay Area aren’t working high paying tech jobs. > I guess in real life I just hear more people talk about the general cost of living argument than a than the specific anti-tech one. Anti-tech sentiment peaked in the early 2010s. Tech buses stopped being vandalized an…

> Anti-tech sentiment peaked in the early 2010s. Tech buses stopped being vandalized and the “die techie scum” thing mostly went away after 2015. While we're comparing anecdotal evidence, I live in Los Angeles and count among my peers many who work in the Hollywood/Media industry. I can assure you the general sentiment among them toward Big Tech is overwhelmingly negative. I work in tech (albeit not a large company)…

I am guessing that the previous post is about the S.F. Bay Area anti-tech backlash peaking in early 2010s. I also think that the people who were expressing that backlash would not distinguish so much between Big Tech and Hollywood/Media. I think the peak after 2010 has more to do with economic stress following 2008 and the glaring wealth inequality.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#103

Post by not2b »

BitwiseFool wrote: post #14
teachrdan wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have data to back that up? Do we know that the number of Californians leaving is higher than before, and if so, by how much?

I do not have any data to present. I only have my personal observations and anecdotes from my peers. Which is why something seems off when this article claims the exodus is a myth when I see so many California license plates and when my realtor friend says a lot of Californians are buying up houses in the local market. I don't claim to be a better researcher than the folks in the article but the conclusion doesn't se…

There are people leaving California, and California's population is huge. But the rate at which they are leaving is less than that of many other states, and the main migration is within the state. You are seeing a lot of Californians because there are a lot of Californians.

This isn't new: a couple of decades ago you saw a ton of people from California buying up property in the Portland area back when California's population was booming and Portland real estate was cheap.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#104

Post by wolverine876 »

tomc1985 wrote: post #98
wolverine876 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> sampling theory suggests it might be (or have been) a trend How does sampling theory support that your two experiences might be a trend? I got two flat tires in the last ten years. Does sampling theory say it's a trend? Statewide? Worldwide? > it is also important to understand other perspectives Absolutely, but let's remember that much of the narrative has been pushed by a political faction for years.

> How does sampling theory support that your two experiences might be a trend? I got two flat tires in the last ten years. Does sampling theory say it's a trend? Statewide? Worldwide? I don't run with startup/entrepreneurial types, so for this to come up in the way it has with my limited exposure to these folks, I consider that at least somewhat significant. I am not saying it is definitely a trend. But I do remember…

I think those small samples need to be larger than that, and they have to be representative samples.

> I am not trying to push a political narrative, and that the people who are should kindly jump off a cliff.

I am not at all saying that you are. I'm saying that the narrative affects the situation. I agree about the cliff!

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#105

Post by thebradbain »

hpoe wrote: post #27
xadhominemx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

Just my little data point but I moved into a sleepy little ID town that has a lot of people that have moved here from SoCal, and of the 5 people I asked "what brought all the way up to Idaho from California?" 4 of them commented on how expensive California was and the high cost of living. 3 of them also stated that they didn't like how things were happening in Cali. Again small anecdotal data point but take it for wh…

Well, it would make sense that the people who left California feel unhappy with California; Not that it's what you were saying, but just because it's likely that those who left the state are unahppy with it, that does not mean most people in California are unhappy with it.

In fact, I love California so much that I buckled the popular media narrative and moved _from_ Texas _to_ California. Funnily enough, people talk about the California-to-Texas pipeline as if it's a new thing, but it's been an observed phenomenon since at least 2005, and it's a lot smaller than the media would have you think (usually net ~40k year leave CA for TX, with about 80k going to Texas and 40k coming from Texas). That is 0.1% migration.

https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/2021/03/03/californians-mo...

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#106

Post by partiallypro »

fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #52
CodeWriter23 wrote: post #49

Guess the census count, which caused this is also a myth https://apnews.com/article/census-2020-government-and-politi...

The article you linked here says California’s population increased between the 2010 and 2020 census. The state lost a congressional district because other states grew faster.

Doesn't that prove the point though? Immigration into the state has clearly decreased.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#107

Post by walkedaway »

kibwen wrote: post #59
gameswithgo wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what a dumb quote by bezos

I assume this is getting downvoted because of its tone, but the sentiment is correct. The statement is nonsense. There can be wisdom in attempting to understand why anecdotes disagree with data, but the vast majority of the time it is simply a combination of selection bias and the human tendency to want to believe things that support your own worldview.

> the vast majority of the time it is simply a combination of selection bias and the human tendency to want to believe things that support your own worldview

Citation needed.

Given Jeff Bezos success in growing a business from scratch, this is clearly one of his secrets and why "Are right, A Lot" is an Amazon leadership principle. I'm always surprised that people are so easy to dismiss insights from successful people.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#108

Post by not2b »

spoonjim wrote: post #90
BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

The thing is that Bezos has very good instincts. So he’s able to distinguish between anecdotes like “my packages are taking longer to get to me” and “Bill Gates has been tracking me through my covid vaccine.”

I suspect that Bezos made that remark in a very particular context and didn't mean it to be generally applicable.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#109

Post by Rebelgecko »

maxclark wrote: post #35

“Other findings in the UC San Diego survey of more than 3,000 respondents include” I really hate polling and surveys.

On top of that, it seems questionable to use a survey from this year to show that fewer people are considering leaving California. Can't that just be survivorship bias? Maybe fewer people are considering leaving California because so many already left. This seems consistent with the states own numbers for 2020, which show that more people left CA than migrated in.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#110

Post by Rebelgecko »

hondo77 wrote: post #50
plank_time wrote: post #37

I know several that have left for Texas. I know one that left for Michigan. One that left for San Diego. A few that left for Seattle. So it’s very real. Whether or not it moves the needle though is the bigger question. I myself would never move unless some sort of environmental catastrophe hit it, like forest fires or no more water which is actually a possibility.

You do know that San Diego is in California, right?

There's also one in Texas
Post reply on HN