US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming • Hacker News Board

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#131

Post by pjc50 » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:34 PM UTC

ALLTaken wrote: post #114

aliasEli wrote: post #2

> beating the previous national high temperature mark by more than 4C in one go, as happened in Canada last week, is virtually unprecedented. This event should be a warning call to all people who believe that a global warming of only 2 degrees Celsius will be barely noticeable. One positive effect is that scientists have collected a lot of data that will help them improve climate models.

Wasn't the Trump administration in effect ordering the deletion of all climate data [1]? I remember there was a very hefty reaction amongst scientists. I was also furious about that, even as a european. That data was gold. - [1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-web-pages... I'm sorry, I really don't touch politic topics and don't want to limit my thinking to binary left/right leafs of thinking, so r…

It was mostly a political change rather than really impacting data collection and actual science, but it was still a hugely wrong decision by the right.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#132

Post by DarkmSparks » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:35 PM UTC

BBC in ice age still ending shocker.

Absolutely no one (afaik) disputes there was once an ice and now there isn't.

But there is a long way to go to prove there is anything we could have done about it or that if we should even try and get back to that climate.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#133

Post by stonemetal12 » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:38 PM UTC

necrotic_comp wrote: post #11

chrisco255 wrote: post #4

Not only is it possible but the worst heat waves on record were experienced in the 1930s: https://www.weather.gov/arx/heat_jul36

What I don't understand is what people who argue against climate change stand to gain. The argument for climate change is: "humans are polluting the planet and it's causing a change in the environment and will have a disastrous effect on the climate." The arguments I hear against climate change always seem to concede that humans are polluting the planet, but argue in different ways (natural cycle/not really happening…

I don't see his post as a climate change denial. When you lie to make your argument you create deniers, because you have shown yourself to be untrustworthy.

The truth should be good enough, something that used to happen once a century is about to happen once a decade, then every few years...

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#134

Post by hntroll1443 » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:39 PM UTC

KozmoNau7 wrote: post #90

syops wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m curious why you ask this question. Does the answer matter or in some way lead to a broader point? If so what is that point? Assume it’s the worst possible energy source as far as you are concerned. Then what is your response?

Shaming individuals for the crimes of an entire society and corporations, is so disingenuous and lazy, but it pops up in every single discussion on this subject.

It's not disingenuous or lazy. Many people of the past died during heatwaves. The reason that doesn't happen so much these days is that we have cheap, plentiful, reliable power from fossil fuels. Renewables aren't up to it, at least not reliably. Is it not a tad psycho to advocate the abolition of fossil fuels that could easily put many people back in the situation of dying due to heat or cold... while sitting in the comfort provided by fossil fuel powered AC? Please, at least write such messages in the dark, sweating.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#135

Post by NiceWayToDoIT » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:39 PM UTC

School-Cotton wrote: post #120

NiceWayToDoIT wrote: post #29

It is interesting tone of this article, even now scientist are struggling to convince wide public and policy makers, that global warming is real. Outcry of desperation. I see in that parallel with Covid pandemic: - "not it is not real" - "it is just a flu like any other" - "all things will be ok" - "oh sh* it is real" - "f** it is real" - "we are screwed run for your lives" - "..." - "no we have not said it is not re…

I downvoted you because it’s just not true that being against covid lockdowns means one is scientifically illiterate or doesn’t care about climate change, so it’s a bad analogy. Covid is much less serious than climate change. I believe the scientific consensus on the seriousness of Covid (death rate of 1 in 100-200, nonzero but unquantified risk of long-term side effects), and I think our measures to combat Covid wer…

I agree with you Covid is small percent human problem, Global Warming is almost all life on planet threat. What you have misunderstood from my comment, is that I my comment was about reaction of policy makers, wealthy people and wide public, as it is not in line with level of threat and what smartest people on planet say about that threat.

It is some strange irony of being human - only when we start experiencing issues we perceive it personally as real danger then it becomes real, and often at that time is too late. Way too late.

And we are already 20 years late with global warming fixes. I am not saying it is end of story, but time for making a dent is quickly closing and we are still at the stage of convincing people it is real.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#136

Post by mdiesel » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:40 PM UTC

BobbyJo wrote: post #83

aww_dang wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, proponents of climate apocalypse frequently make a distinction between weather and climate.

Let's say alcohol didn't exist. Then, one day it gets invented... Traffic deaths would rise because people would increasingly drive under the influence. In this situation you could say: "This crazy unusual number of traffic deaths near this bar is obviously the result of drunk driving." In this situation you could not say: "My town had the lowest number of traffic deaths ever recorded last year, so alcohol has not in…

Having friends injured in traffic accidents is leading more people to drink as a coping mechanism!

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#137

Post by bboylen » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:41 PM UTC

nobody9999 wrote: post #128

bboylen wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People don't want the new normal to be like in California and New York where rolling blackouts are the new normal due to unreliable green energy

>People don't want the new normal to be like in California and New York where rolling blackouts are the norm due to unreliable green energy Huh? I live in New York and we've never had "rolling blackouts." I can't speak to California, but in New York, no power failures due to "green energy" have ever happened here. The few (half a dozen in the past 55 years or so) significant power outages here in New York have been d…

https://pix11.com/news/local-news/power-outages-new-york-new... https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/30/nyregion/nyc-energy-alert...

I don't mean to blame green energy for the grid not being able to handle the recent heat wave. But I do blame the closing of the Indian Point Nuclear power plant. Nuclear is a fantastic source of carbon neutral energy but plants are being shut down in both New York and California, without alternative energy sources in place to pick up the slack

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#138

Post by epistasis » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:41 PM UTC

akavel wrote: post #38

necrotic_comp wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I don't understand is what people who argue against climate change stand to gain. The argument for climate change is: "humans are polluting the planet and it's causing a change in the environment and will have a disastrous effect on the climate." The arguments I hear against climate change always seem to concede that humans are polluting the planet, but argue in different ways (natural cycle/not really happening…

IMO, because admitting that climate change is reality would in consequence require massive, expensive, and hugely uncomfortable changes in one's lifestyle. Plus, not uncommonly, becoming de facto socially ostracised in at least some (though possibly all) of one's social circles. Also, there's not even some concrete "ozone layer hole" you could point your finger at, but rather some vague: "Some, though not all [FUD wo…

> admitting that climate change is reality would in consequence require massive, expensive, and hugely uncomfortable changes in one's lifestyle.

I think you are right about people's thoughts on this.

But it's important to counter that it won't be massively expensive to switch away from fossil fuels, and will likely be cheaper. Decarbonization while maintaining lifestyles, and increasing the energy consumption of developing countries, will not require sacrifice from everyone. No, it simply means disrupting the usual energy sources with new technology, and fossil fuel companies are hugely influential, and have situated themselves deeeeeply within the power structures, especially after the energy crisis of the 1970s.

So because a very few investors have a lot of money at stake, and because they are so extremely influential, and so good at manipulating popular opinion, and even better at influencing power to act in favor of fossil fuels, we see very little action. The only tech missing from the decarbonization transition are some industrial processes like steel, ammonia, and concrete. We don't yet know if hydrogen or carbon capture will be better, or some other new chemistries. But it will be solvable and the worst case cost will not be drastic.

Renewable energy is cheaper than fossil fuels currently. Batteries are on their way to be cheaper than gas powered cars. Batteries are already cheaper than natural gas peakers, and will soon be cheaper than coal.

Christopher Clack's latest models, which model the electrical grid down to the distribution level along with weather patterns, show us a path to save lots of money while decarbonizing the electrical grid at the pace we need to. Yet nobody talks about this on the news, we only get paid PR to subtly tell us that we need fossil fuels. And in the Murdoch media empire, they are so far detached from scientific knowledge, and so deep in the pocket of narrow investment interests, that we have entire political tribes fighting against their own financial and survival interests, merely to help out fossil fuel investors.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#139

Post by trabant00 » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:42 PM UTC

"When will people wake up?" "Politicians don't care!" "Rich people are just greedy!" "Animals are dying!" "Science deniers!"

What are those but moral and/or intellectual superiority declarations? And they're false too! We historically never cared or done as much for the environment as we do right now. Cars are getting stricter pollution norms on a schedule. Home appliances are rated by efficiency, we even banned some things like traditional light bulbs. Vacuum cleaners have a maximum draw power by law! Garbage collection is more expensive if not sorted. We pump money into renewable energy. We banned plastic cups and bags and even straws. Industry besides being regulated and checked is economically incentivized to consume as little energy as possible. We have naturally protected areas and species, we regulated fishing, etc, etc. We even have some clear positive results like pollution going down in big cities compared to last century.

Maybe it's not enough right now. But it's downright dishonest to say we don't care or do. The solutions left to be found are nowhere clear or easy. We don't have infinite resources to do things, we can't force every country to do the same, change takes time, etc.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#140

Post by spywaregorilla » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:42 PM UTC

sgpl wrote: post #39

I've been cranking up my AC and adding ice to my water to combat the heat but I recently read an article about sea-life [0] boiling to death in their natural habitats (oceans, seas) which made me realize that animals in the wild increasingly don't have this option. It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my…

> I've been cranking up my AC and adding ice to my water to combat the heat but I recently read an article about sea-life [0] boiling to death in their natural habitats (oceans, seas) which made me realize that animals in the wild increasingly don't have this option.

What exactly is meant by boiling here? It's not literally boiling I assume. What's the temperature threshold change at which animals start to die in the ocean? I would assume it's very small.

> I've also been religiously recycling in my personal life but every now and then I read articles about even recycling from a lot of places ending up in landfills which really frustrates me as it takes away any agency I really have on this action.

It depends on a number of factors, including the market value of natural gas at the time. You can always feel good about recycling aluminum however. This is very easy and cost effective so it pretty much always happens.