US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming • Hacker News Board

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#111

Post by dghughes » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:21 PM UTC

helen___keller wrote: post #49

sgpl wrote: post #39

I've been cranking up my AC and adding ice to my water to combat the heat but I recently read an article about sea-life [0] boiling to death in their natural habitats (oceans, seas) which made me realize that animals in the wild increasingly don't have this option. It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my…

> It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my lifetime It's generally agreed that we are already living within a mass extinction event[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropocene#Biodiversity "Humankind has entered what is sometimes called the Earth's sixth major extinction. Most experts agree that huma…

The acidification of the ware is what goes unnoticed. The heat adds to ocean volume but CO2 acidifies water more but it's not noticeable by humans.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#112

Post by bserge » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:21 PM UTC

NiceWayToDoIT wrote: post #29

It is interesting tone of this article, even now scientist are struggling to convince wide public and policy makers, that global warming is real. Outcry of desperation. I see in that parallel with Covid pandemic: - "not it is not real" - "it is just a flu like any other" - "all things will be ok" - "oh sh* it is real" - "f** it is real" - "we are screwed run for your lives" - "..." - "no we have not said it is not re…

Just look at how hard they try to convince themselves that it's just temporary.

This is the same part of the mind that rejects any thoughts of death, even though we know it's certain for everyone.

Tell me with a straight face all the human industry doesn't affect the weather.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#113

Post by microtonal » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:22 PM UTC

syops wrote: post #75

iso1631 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've been cranking up my AC What is your power source?

I’m curious why you ask this question. Does the answer matter or in some way lead to a broader point? If so what is that point? Assume it’s the worst possible energy source as far as you are concerned. Then what is your response?

I think they are pointing at an acceleration of the situation. Last summers have been relatively hot in West Europe as well, resulting in people buying airco’s [1]. Of course, people using airco's speeds up global warming (unless the electricity used is 100% renewable).

But at the individual level, it is understandable that people do this during heatwaves. Use green energy ;).

[1] residential buildings traditionally do not have airco’s in countries such as Germany or The Netherlands.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#114

Post by ALLTaken » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:22 PM UTC

aliasEli wrote: post #2

> beating the previous national high temperature mark by more than 4C in one go, as happened in Canada last week, is virtually unprecedented. This event should be a warning call to all people who believe that a global warming of only 2 degrees Celsius will be barely noticeable. One positive effect is that scientists have collected a lot of data that will help them improve climate models.

Wasn't the Trump administration in effect ordering the deletion of all climate data [1]? I remember there was a very hefty reaction amongst scientists. I was also furious about that, even as a european. That data was gold.

- [1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-web-pages...

I'm sorry, I really don't touch politic topics and don't want to limit my thinking to binary left/right leafs of thinking, so regardless who ordered this, it was a fatally wrong and inhuman decision.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#115

Post by UncleMeat » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:23 PM UTC

_hl_ wrote: post #74

rimliu wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The models are useless. Or very useful: you can choose any you like to prove a point.

Which is why, for this type of research, you use an ensemble of multiple competing models, which also helps with extracting probabilities. If you think their methodology is flawed, then have the decency to respect the enormous amount of effort that goes into this kind of research and point out actual, specific flaws.

They won't.

An old friend of mine is a professor who studies climate change. They fairly consistently get hate mail from people who insist that computer modeling as an entire discipline is utterly worthless and should be dismissed without any investigation. There are no reasoned criticisms coming from the denier community.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#116

Post by dghughes » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:24 PM UTC

aliasEli wrote: post #2

> beating the previous national high temperature mark by more than 4C in one go, as happened in Canada last week, is virtually unprecedented. This event should be a warning call to all people who believe that a global warming of only 2 degrees Celsius will be barely noticeable. One positive effect is that scientists have collected a lot of data that will help them improve climate models.

It's the high above freezing temperatures at the 3300m level that's even more concerning it's so hot so high up!

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#117

Post by rimliu » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:24 PM UTC

_hl_ wrote: post #74

rimliu wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The models are useless. Or very useful: you can choose any you like to prove a point.

Which is why, for this type of research, you use an ensemble of multiple competing models, which also helps with extracting probabilities. If you think their methodology is flawed, then have the decency to respect the enormous amount of effort that goes into this kind of research and point out actual, specific flaws.

I respect the research. That's a different thing than having any confidence in the models created. I also do not think that methodology is flawed, but that it does not produce reliable results (yet) because of the enormous complexity involved.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#118

Post by iso1631 » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:24 PM UTC

jokoon wrote: post #23

I'm starting to think that governments and people will be unable to fight CO2 emissions for several reasons: * Reducing living standards is counter intuitive when consumerism is the norm, in France the Yellow Vests movement showed that it's very difficult to tax carbon if it punish poor people. Inequality and carbon emissions are deeply intertwined. * People will just consume, feel guilty, maybe take some individual…

1) Ensure all carbon emissions is taxed equally - be that burning fuel in a car, buying a double-avocado latte, importing some plastic shit from China etc

2) Distribute the revenue from the carbon tax directly to the population via a UBI, reverse income tax, or something similar.

This gives an incentive to reduce individual carbon use but makes sure that average people don't lose out in general

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#119

Post by maest » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:25 PM UTC

Are there any good models of how regional climate will look like in 10/20/30 years given the current rate of change?

I suspect the housing market in most places hasn't baked that information in (with the exception of e.g. property on the coastline that will be under water in the near future)

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#120

Post by School-Cotton » Thu, Jul 08, 2021, 1:27 PM UTC

NiceWayToDoIT wrote: post #29

It is interesting tone of this article, even now scientist are struggling to convince wide public and policy makers, that global warming is real. Outcry of desperation. I see in that parallel with Covid pandemic: - "not it is not real" - "it is just a flu like any other" - "all things will be ok" - "oh sh* it is real" - "f** it is real" - "we are screwed run for your lives" - "..." - "no we have not said it is not re…

I downvoted you because it’s just not true that being against covid lockdowns means one is scientifically illiterate or doesn’t care about climate change, so it’s a bad analogy.

Covid is much less serious than climate change.

I believe the scientific consensus on the seriousness of Covid (death rate of 1 in 100-200, nonzero but unquantified risk of long-term side effects), and I think our measures to combat Covid were an extreme overreaction. I also think climate change is by far the most serious problem facing humanity and that no reaction would be too extreme.