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The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

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Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#201

Post by twobitshifter »

mikem170 wrote: post #160
mandmandam wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Some random person ran across a novel virus in the wild, and got sick". More like, "some random person ran across a novel virus in the wild, a thousand miles from the nearest bat population, while they were hibernating; and this all just happened to be within a few miles of a laboratory with sketchy safety history that literally studies coronaviruses , and didn't let independent examiners in for a year, even then…

There's evidence pointing to an origin 600 miles south of Wuhan [0], based on sampled early cases and genetic sequencing. [0] https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-...

That research presupposes that the virus came from bats to uses this to draw the conclusion that a more bat like variant found elsewhere is the origin point - however researchers know that COVID binds more tightly to human cells that both bat and pangolin, and more strongly to pangolin than bat.

https://scitechdaily.com/researchers-find-covid-19-virus-was...

“The computer modelling found the virus’s ability to bind to the bat ACE2 protein was poor relative to its ability to bind human cells. This argues against the virus being transmitted directly from bats to humans. Hence, if the virus has a natural source, it could only have come to humans via an intermediary species which has yet to be found,”

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#202

Post by ncmncm »

user-the-name wrote: post #97
zohch wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they're just saying that 3 people seeing a doctor about flu symptoms at that time of year is not unusual (most Chinese routinely go to hospitals for any medical treatment) But what evidence is there that this was the case, that they just had normal flu like symptoms, and it was not more serious? What information at all do we have about their cases, and how trustworthy is this information, and why does this have to…

Much more relevantly, what evidence is there that this wasn't flu? That is where you need to start. You can't assume your conclusion and demand everyone else disprove you.

I suppose it is possible you have noticed that a SARS pandemic started at around that same time and same place and spread over the whole damn world? The circumstantial evidence is wholly consistent with it not being flu.

We don't know, but there is no burden of proof on one side--even if you would like it to be the side you are not on.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#203

Post by ncmncm »

lamontcg wrote: post #185
rossdavidh wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmmm...maybe there are articles that slant that way, but I haven't run across them. Can you cite an example?

Can you cite an example of an article which literally says "we need to shut up about this to calm China down?"

It says so right in the article linked at the top of this page. Which was, in fact, the point of his question. If you can't point at any articles like what you parody, then you have no point.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#204

Post by forcry »

scotty79 wrote: post #168
forcry wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There's really no wonder that virus that spreads through human population is slightly better adjusted to humans than animal species its ancestor was infecting. This does not make sense to me, because I think the COVID virus was pretty stable for a long time (being an RNA virus and all that, I don't know). So the idea is that it was optimally adapted during the time of the jump to humans (of course it could have got…

Virus doesn't need to be perfectly adapted to infect a species. It easily infects species other than humans. It's stable but not that stable. The variant that spread out of China was already different than the variant that initially caused trouble in China. Since then we got few new variants and that's only counting the ones that spread enough for us to notice. There are no perfect things in biology. All things are j…

>Virus doesn't need to be perfectly adapted to infect a species.

To be frank, no one said so.

>And I'd be careful about reasoning that if I can't imagine any other way something could happen then it must have happened exactly the way I think it happened

No one is doing that either. Just that the chance of alternative is astronomically small..

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#205

Post by forcry »

Smashure wrote: post #200
forcry wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if the authors of these posts disagree, they should contact the government and offer their testimony as well, then we can consider their argument to hold similar weight.

I’ve never seen someone say “their argument wasn’t made in front of congress, so it doesn’t hold the same weight” Attack their argument, not the location where they said the argument.

>Attack their argument, not the location where they said the argument.

As layman, I am powerless to do so.

So I have to go by how much stake the proponents are putting in their argument. A testimony before government puts a lot more of their reputation and what not, at stake, than a blog post on a domain that one control, that has also has no real legal weight.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#206

Post by forcry »

mikem170 wrote: post #154
forcry wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if the authors of these posts disagree, they should contact the government and offer their testimony as well, then we can consider their argument to hold similar weight.

Congressional testimony tends to be more political than scientific, don't you think? Facts about DNA are still facts, regardless of who congress invites to speak before them. I never considered Congress to be gatekeepers of science.

https://news.ycombinator.com/edit?id=27757299

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#207

Post by lamontcg »

ncmncm wrote: post #203
lamontcg wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you cite an example of an article which literally says "we need to shut up about this to calm China down?"

It says so right in the article linked at the top of this page. Which was, in fact, the point of his question. If you can't point at any articles like what you parody, then you have no point.

No it doesn't say that.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#208

Post by forcry »

native_samples wrote: post #165
forcry wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The next time someone asks us to trust the science, our response should be "okay, but can I trust the scientists?" Originally, trust in scientists was not required. Because anyone could have repeated the experiment and should see results consistent with what the scientists were saying. This is where the credibility of science come from and it made people's trust in science grow to a kind of blind faith. But then som…

That's a nice idea but there are a lot of problems with it. 1. Being able to replicate a study is necessary but not sufficient for the conclusions to be correct. Scientists pump out a lot of studies that are just doing stats on public data sets. These should be easily replicable, but the conclusions may still be nonsensical if the analysis isn't done right (and a lot aren't done right), or if the scientific work itse…

>Scientists pump out a lot of studies that are just doing stats on public data sets.

May be I didn't make myself clear. I only meant to include actual experiments, in the context. So it will only involve procedures that include collecting raw data from nature.

Mostly agree with the rest of your comment.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#209

Post by scotty79 »

forcry wrote: post #204
scotty79 wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Virus doesn't need to be perfectly adapted to infect a species. It easily infects species other than humans. It's stable but not that stable. The variant that spread out of China was already different than the variant that initially caused trouble in China. Since then we got few new variants and that's only counting the ones that spread enough for us to notice. There are no perfect things in biology. All things are j…

>Virus doesn't need to be perfectly adapted to infect a species. To be frank, no one said so. >And I'd be careful about reasoning that if I can't imagine any other way something could happen then it must have happened exactly the way I think it happened No one is doing that either. Just that the chance of alternative is astronomically small..

That's a weird way of saying "I believe it didn't happen like that."

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#210

Post by forcry »

mikem170 wrote: post #181
hex4def6 wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a question: How many times did classic SARS escape from a lab? https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346413716_A_review_...

So that is the basis for what? Is that a fact that changed your mind about the origins of covid? We know that lab leaks happen. Scary stuff. Even how many lab leaks there are here in the U.S. The paper you link to describes several lab leaks during a period of time while SARS was being widely studied. Its quite a leap from knowing there are lab leaks to implying that covid, or any other virus, leaked from a lab. Ther…

> earliest covid-19 cases were 600 miles south of Wuhan

Nothing conclusive of that sort in that article.

>All I can say is it doesn't look to me as if Wuhan is the prime candidate, because A exists in other regions of China at that time at possibly a higher frequency."

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