Live data from Hacker News

The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

newrepublic.com

161–170 of 233 posts

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#161
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and this all just happened to be within a few miles of a laboratory with sketchy safety history that literally studies coronaviruses If the argument is: 1) a lab was built in Wuhan that studied coronaviruses, then a global coronavirus pandemic originated in Wuhan 2) Therefore the lab caused the global pandemic then it is a fallacious argument.[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

That's not the argument. Nobody's pretending that propositional logic can decide this. It's a question of how to weight empirical evidence. Some people think it's relevant that a new coronavirus emerged next door to a lab working on new coronaviruses, especially since concerns had been raised about unsafe conditions there.

But there's evidence that it emerged 600 miles south of Wuhan [0], based on genetic sequencing of collected samples from infected people:

> In a recent paper published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Forster reported he found three main strains of the virus that he labeled A, B and C.

> His research determined that A was the founding variant because it was the version most similar to the type of SARS-Cov-2 (the scientific name for the virus) discovered in bats. Many experts suspect that the virus migrated to humans from bats, probably via some other animal. But he also discovered that the A strain wasn't the predominant type in Wuhan.

> Of 23 samples that came from Wuhan, only three were type A, the rest were type B, a version two mutations from A. But in other parts of China, Forster says, initially A was the predominant strain. For instance, of nine genome samples in Guangdong, some 600 miles south of Wuhan, five were A types.

It doesn't seem fair to assume this originated in Wuhan. Instead the Wuhan markets may have been the first super-spreader site.

[0] https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-...

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#162
post #110

The minute the PRC government destroyed the evidence, they lost the presumption of innocence. Let's also remember - we're dealing with very smart people who very well knew the price they were paying by not cooperating with the international community, and yet that path seemed more attractive than just "coming clean." I wonder what the judicial system would have to say if a murder was committed in my house, and there…

Yes, the cover up and hostility towards the lab leak hypothesis may actually be the strongest evidence for it. Which is to say, not much. But we have no evidence for the natural origin story, and it's a somewhat strange coincidence that the initial outbreak was near a lab studying these very same kinds of viruses. Granted you might put such a lab in places where there are lots of bat viruses to be found, but that's s…

Did you know that there's been evidence pointing to an origin 600 miles south of Wuhan [0], based on sampled early cases and genetic sequencing?

[0] https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-...

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#163

The real motive behind most of these kind of articles: "...loose talk about a lab leak elevates tensions between China and the United States, undermining the collaborative research we need to understand this pandemic and prevent the next one." Translation: "please shut up about this, it doesn't matter now and we need to get China calmed down, and this talk is making them defensive and therefore uncooperative." The re…

They seem to be trying to insist that the virus didn't even originate in Wuhan at all, leak or no leak.

There is evidence pointing in that direction [0]:

> Of 23 samples that came from Wuhan, only three were type A, the rest were type B, a version two mutations from A. But in other parts of China, Forster says, initially A was the predominant strain. For instance, of nine genome samples in Guangdong, some 600 miles south of Wuhan, five were A types.

[0] https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-...

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#164
post #110

The minute the PRC government destroyed the evidence, they lost the presumption of innocence. Let's also remember - we're dealing with very smart people who very well knew the price they were paying by not cooperating with the international community, and yet that path seemed more attractive than just "coming clean." I wonder what the judicial system would have to say if a murder was committed in my house, and there…

Yes, the cover up and hostility towards the lab leak hypothesis may actually be the strongest evidence for it. Which is to say, not much. But we have no evidence for the natural origin story, and it's a somewhat strange coincidence that the initial outbreak was near a lab studying these very same kinds of viruses. Granted you might put such a lab in places where there are lots of bat viruses to be found, but that's s…

Combine that with the sick lab researchers, with the work performed at BSL-2 instead of BSL-4, with the main researcher being a world leading expert on gain of function research, with a WIV database of genomes surprisingly taken offline, with inconsistent sequencing dates reported by WIV researchers, with huge conflicts of interest from several of the main researchers supporting the natural origin theory (Daszak), etc, etc, etc.

I'm about 80/20 on a lab leak.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#165
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the scientists were too busy playing politics. > "... it was scarier to be associated with Trump and to become a tool for racists, so people didn't want to publicly call for an investigation into lab origins." https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/lab-leak-theory... It never occurred to these people that claiming the virus came from bats because they eat bats there is the more "xenophobic" thing and no…

>The next time someone asks us to trust the science, our response should be "okay, but can I trust the scientists?" Originally, trust in scientists was not required. Because anyone could have repeated the experiment and should see results consistent with what the scientists were saying. This is where the credibility of science come from and it made people's trust in science grow to a kind of blind faith. But then som…

That's a nice idea but there are a lot of problems with it.

1. Being able to replicate a study is necessary but not sufficient for the conclusions to be correct. Scientists pump out a lot of studies that are just doing stats on public data sets. These should be easily replicable, but the conclusions may still be nonsensical if the analysis isn't done right (and a lot aren't done right), or if the scientific work itself contains fraud or logic errors (and a lot do).

2. There are no incentives for scientists to make their work replicable. Their salary does not depend on it. Their salary isn't going to depend on it, because the scientific institutions are all basically dependent on funding by governments or rich benefactors who aren't paying attention - funding "science" is not a means to an end but the end in and of itself for these groups, and thus they aren't particularly motivated to double check the quality of what gets released.

Consider the above problem: scientists were deceiving people because they thought helping Trump is the same thing as helping "racists". Scott Alexander did a very thorough analysis of this where he pointed out that Trump is not, in fact, racist and a lot of the claims that his followers are don't make any sense [1]. If self-proclaimed scientists can't do even basic sanity checks on their own beliefs like that, you can imagine how much they struggle with more complicated claims.

[1] http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/11/16/you-are-still-crying-wo...

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#166
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both the Ebola and Marburg viruses both seem to live in bats in Africa and periodically transfer to humans - given it's happening in one place means it's not surprising it happens elsewhere

Sure, but does it happen right next to a world renowned Ebola virus research center?

There's genetic evidence that the first cases were not from Wuhan [0]:

> Of 23 samples that came from Wuhan, only three were type A, the rest were type B, a version two mutations from A. But in other parts of China, Forster says, initially A was the predominant strain. For instance, of nine genome samples in Guangdong, some 600 miles south of Wuhan, five were A types.

[0] https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-05-...

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#167

The minute the PRC government destroyed the evidence, they lost the presumption of innocence. Let's also remember - we're dealing with very smart people who very well knew the price they were paying by not cooperating with the international community, and yet that path seemed more attractive than just "coming clean." I wonder what the judicial system would have to say if a murder was committed in my house, and there…

A totalitarian state acted like a totalitarian state by not addressing rumors and suppressing them, because it can. You can't judge them like a Western Democracy with a free press and think that they'd just "come clean".

It has nothing to do with ability (it can), and everything to do with reasoning and motive.

The government (and party) only acting in their self interest means they'd share and push any explanation that wasn't nefarious. No they don't have to do anything, but an innocent explanation is something they'd benefit from by disclosing.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#168
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Overall, given the high binding energy of S protein for pangolin ACE2, the possibility of pangolins being an intermediary vector for SARS-CoV-2 cannot be excluded" There's really no wonder that virus that spreads through human population is slightly better adjusted to humans than animal species its ancestor was infecting. It's the case of water in the puddle surprised how well the puddle shape fits the water shape.…

>There's really no wonder that virus that spreads through human population is slightly better adjusted to humans than animal species its ancestor was infecting. This does not make sense to me, because I think the COVID virus was pretty stable for a long time (being an RNA virus and all that, I don't know). So the idea is that it was optimally adapted during the time of the jump to humans (of course it could have got…

Virus doesn't need to be perfectly adapted to infect a species.

It easily infects species other than humans.

It's stable but not that stable. The variant that spread out of China was already different than the variant that initially caused trouble in China. Since then we got few new variants and that's only counting the ones that spread enough for us to notice.

There are no perfect things in biology. All things are just good enough. This virus was just good enough at spreading between people that given our connectivity it spread pandemically.

If the virus was was somehow uniquely well adapted to humans (which it isn't) it would be still more probable that its ancestor was just an unknown human coronavirus (other than 4 that cause some common colds) that we haven't discovered yet, because it spread completely asympthomatically. And the mutation it acquired made it slightly lethal not more infectious.

I don't think that happened because then why would pangolins be better suited for it than dogs, although dogs and cats being high on the list is quite curious.

And I'd be careful about reasoning that if I can't imagine any other way something could happen then it must have happened exactly the way I think it happened. It's good to be aware that no matter who I am and what I know, my ignorance always exceeds my knowledge and imagination.

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#169
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and this all just happened to be within a few miles of a laboratory with sketchy safety history that literally studies coronaviruses If the argument is: 1) a lab was built in Wuhan that studied coronaviruses, then a global coronavirus pandemic originated in Wuhan 2) Therefore the lab caused the global pandemic then it is a fallacious argument.[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

That's not the argument. Nobody's pretending that propositional logic can decide this. It's a question of how to weight empirical evidence. Some people think it's relevant that a new coronavirus emerged next door to a lab working on new coronaviruses, especially since concerns had been raised about unsafe conditions there.

[deleted]

Re: The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory

#170
post #94

It doesn't have to have been engineered to have escaped. Why this convolution keeps happening is beyond me, we "know" this isn't a bio-superweapon. Taking this as read, either: Researchers at the lab failed to spot something like this in the wild, in an area where they were looking for this. So, failed to raise the alarm appropriately with acceptable transparency. or, Researcher work at the lab led to the collection…

The article covered this. When collecting samples from the wild they aren't collecting viable virus, they're collecting samples which have mRNA in them. Those samples just won't infect anyone at all. While collecting the samples they're of course exposed to the environment and could have gotten sick, but they have dramatically less exposure to the environment that the workers who collect bat guano for fertilizer in C…

"When collecting samples from the wild they aren't collecting viable virus, they're collecting samples which have mRNA in them. Those samples just won't infect anyone at all."

None of this is right. RNA (of which mRNA is just a subtype) is extremely unstable and degrades almost immediately unless carefully protected, which is why viruses need a capsid and why mRNA vaccines need cold chains. You can't just touch some animal and collect raw RNA. Also the only type of thing a virologist could recover from a bat of any interest to them is viable virus because their whole goal is to study actual viruses.

"Then there would have had to be some novel lab accident since SARS-CoV-2 requires aerosolized particles to be breathed in"

There's nothing unexpected about that. These supposedly novel lab accidents happen all the time. Viruses constantly escape from labs. SARS1 has escaped in China many times, and the last foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK came from a lab that had captured samples from the previous outbreak and kept them replicating.

"petri dish binding studies don't produce an environment where a lab accident is very possible"

Virologists don't only try to grow viruses in petri dishes. Look up serial passage. Animals are frequently used for that purpose. The WIV has been found to have been developing and buying bat cages. It's not really disputed that they were infecting live animals with viruses.

Post reply on HN