The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan • Hacker News Board

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#251

Post by kjaftaedi » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 12:59 PM UTC

tynpeddler wrote: post #63

This article has a number of issues that jump out to me from just a cursory read. The author admits that the NIH has a specific definition of "gain of function research" and then seems to go forward with the article using their own definition, without calling out that they're doing this. Why are they using their own definition instead of the NIH's? The Chinese research this author cites claims that there are large re…

You read the article poorly. The gain of function language is perfectly within context.

Also, how can you even write sentences like

>This makes a natural crossover event more likely compared to the lab-leak hypothesis. This point seems to escape the author entirely.

And in the very next paragraph quote all of the points the author was making. Specifically that a crossover event is entirely possible because the scientists were working in sub-standard conditions.

The point you missed is that you don't need centrifuges and lab equipment for this to happen, just a place where lots of source material is stored and people not using proper safety precautions.

I'd recommend giving the article a second read, it's the best article I've read on the subject to-date.

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#252

Post by exdsq » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 2:05 PM UTC

jhgb wrote: post #222

salawat wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When nothing has a smoking gun, and you've got volumes more circumstantial evidence for one thing than another, it does not serve one well to stick their head in the sand and not move forward under the assumption both can be right. When you run into massive resistance to doing so, it only points one in the direction that there may be more to be uncovered in one direction than another. >Come on in guys, let's compare…

Smoking gun in the original SARS took 15 years to find and it was found in bats in a cave 1100 km away from the first outbreak. What exactly are you expecting two years into this outbreak? The "circumstantial evidence" is that pretty much all recent new infectious diseases in humans were traced to animals in the wild, or alternatively, sometimes not traced anywhere at all (Hepatitis C, anyone?). "Yes, but this one is…

It's hardly unprecedented, look how many related viruses have escaped from research sites before in China, including SARS.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity...

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#253

Post by raphlinus » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 2:09 PM UTC

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #173

raphlinus wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prominent, respected virologists have been questioning gain of function research for a while. Here's a cite[1] from 2018 from Marc Lipsitch, who would be on most people's top ten list of trusted virologists on Covid. He's also one of the signatories of the letter calling for investigation[2]. I think it's possible to split out the question of bioresearch risks from Covid origins. If it was a lab leak, obviously we sh…

Lipsitch is an epidemiologist, not a virologist.

You are right, thanks for the correction!

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#254

Post by jpeloquin » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 4:44 PM UTC

ChemSpider wrote: post #169

opiopi wrote: post #153

For anyone interested in what these labs look like, the podcast "TWiV" (This Week in Virology) did a video where they visit Boston's BSL-4. Software engineers might appreciate the simplicity with which redundant failsafes are attained - each Biosafety Level being contained by a less safe abstraction. Thus a BSL-4 lab is essentially 4 labs built inside themselves, like a Matryoshka doll for pathogens. https://www.yout…

BSL4 or not is not really important anymore, as Dr. Shi did her experiments in a BSL2 lab. From the article: "Unnoticed by most, however, was a key difference that significantly shifted the risk calculation. The Chinese work was carried out at biosafety level 2 (BSL-2), a much lower tier than Baric’s BSL-3+." BSL2 is not much more than "wear a lab coat". https://consteril.com/biosafety-levels-difference/ So the nices…

BSL-2 is a lot more than "wear a lab coat". If it was just that, there'd be no BSL-1. BSL-2 usually also means doing work in a biosafety cabinet and sterilizing disposals, although the controls employed vary depending on the hazards specific to the actual work being done. If you're interested, Yale lays it out in 200 pages of detail: https://ehs.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/biosafety-man...

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#255

Post by Natsu » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 5:29 PM UTC

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #248

Natsu wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That goes back to seeming odd to me. We know all the animals there thanks to a comprehensive survey and prior outbreaks didn't take even half this long to find. And several lab workers did get sick early on. We'll likely never find solid proof one way or another at this rate, though, unless an animal reservoir is found.

> We know all the animals there thanks to a comprehensive survey The people surveying which animals were there were not from the government, and were not studying coronaviruses. They're conservationists, and it's coincidental that they did this survey just before the outbreak. > And several lab workers did get sick early on. So the US government claims, without providing any evidence. > prior outbreaks didn't take ev…

Sure, but knowing the species and origins of the animals gives us a good overview of what's there. It's weird, but not impossible, that we haven't found it given that. If China had been more forthcoming--and had kept samples from the culls--we would likely have more answers.

Regarding the researchers, there were videos by some people in China who later vanished. I know that China is usually China, but that doesn't exactly make me trust them more.

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#256

Post by DiogenesKynikos » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 6:38 PM UTC

arisAlexis wrote: post #249

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese can't go back in time and change things they said before the pandemic. The viruses that the Wuhan Institute of Virology works with are fairly well known, because the WIV has published numerous papers on them. We know, for example, that the WIV has three live coronaviruses that it works with. None of them is close to SARS-CoV-2. We also know about a whole range of other viruses they've discovered (by seque…

Did they give full access to all documents and facilities to WHO? NO. Why do you continue an argument that has 0 basis?

The WHO team went to the WIV and got detailed information about the research conducted by the various research groups there, and were able to question the groups.

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#257

Post by DiogenesKynikos » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 6:42 PM UTC

kjaftaedi wrote: post #250

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 10% difference is massive for a 30k-base virus. In the public mind, "gain of function" has gained the aura of some sort of black magic, but creating SARS-CoV-2 from any combination of known viruses is beyond the capability of any lab. The amount of effort you'd have to put into it would be astronomical, and all for no apparent scientific reason. This line of speculation really is completely separated from reality.

I recommend taking the time to read the article, they cover this pretty well. It seems that even of this were manufactured, it is not likely intentional. >The Chinese research did not have the specific goal of making the viruses more deadly, and rather than SARS itself, it used SARS’s close cousins, whose real-world risk to humans was unknown—in fact, determining the risk was the point of the research. Just as when y…

The problem for this speculation is that given the types of experiments the WIV is known to have done, it is impossible to produce anything that looks remotely like SARS-CoV-2. The reverse genetics system used by WIV researchers is well known, and SARS-CoV-2 is simply not a product of it.

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#258

Post by DiogenesKynikos » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 6:51 PM UTC

Natsu wrote: post #255

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We know all the animals there thanks to a comprehensive survey The people surveying which animals were there were not from the government, and were not studying coronaviruses. They're conservationists, and it's coincidental that they did this survey just before the outbreak. > And several lab workers did get sick early on. So the US government claims, without providing any evidence. > prior outbreaks didn't take ev…

Sure, but knowing the species and origins of the animals gives us a good overview of what's there. It's weird, but not impossible, that we haven't found it given that. If China had been more forthcoming--and had kept samples from the culls--we would likely have more answers. Regarding the researchers, there were videos by some people in China who later vanished. I know that China is usually China, but that doesn't ex…

> If China had been more forthcoming--and had kept samples from the culls--we would likely have more answers.

It's entirely possible that the people ordering the culls and the people carrying out the scientific investigations are different and don't talk to each other. From what I've heard, the wildlife trade was shut down very quickly after the outbreak was discovered. This is a bit like the Huanan market: it would have been scientifically valuable to keep it as-is and do a thorough study, but once the authorities discovered there was an outbreak there, they immediately ordered it to be closed and decontaminated - which makes sense from a public health point of view.

Anyways, there has been a lot of extremely valuable research published over the last year+ by Chinese researchers on the origins of the virus (we now know a lot more about the family of viruses that SARS-CoV-2 belongs to, for example), and I think progress will continue to be made.

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#259

Post by pas » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 8:24 PM UTC

tim333 wrote: post #201

pas wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't they included in each other like a matrioshka doll?

Doubt it. I'm curious where the BSL-2 actually was.

The new laboratory building has 3000 m2 of BSL-4 space, and also 20 BSL-2 and two BSL-3 laboratories.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology#ci...

But of course the WIV has a few other research centers there.

Re: The risky bat-virus engineering that links America to Wuhan

#260

Post by dang » Sun, Jul 04, 2021, 8:27 PM UTC

runawaybottle wrote: post #84

JohnWhigham wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those someones were CNN/MSNBC producers that decided not to give it the light of day because Trump talked about it first and that means it's unequivocally Bad™ and racist. All 24/7 news networks should be dissolved immediately. They are aggressive cancers that have been ruinous to society. And I still get downvoted. Lol. This community is no better than the social media sites it trashes.

It’s really crazy how the skeptical crowd (erring on the side of the lab leak theory) are all grayed out. How about we don’t gray those voices out in these discussions. Dispute it, no problem, but somethings do need to be talked about over and over. There’s a million discussions on code complexity, job interviews, etc, because we know it’s a problem we have to keep angling at to come to a truth. Here we have China th…

There are plenty of more neutral and thoughtful comments taking the side of the lab leak theory that don't end up in a downvoted or flagged state. The GP comment obviously broke the site guidelines, for example with gratuitous flamebait.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html