German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT • Hacker News Board

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#11

Post by QuesnayJr » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:00 AM UTC

pudo wrote: post #3

I'm curious how well this will fare in a German context, as opposed to the US, where 538 now seems a solid part of the campaign season. Some differences come to mind: voter participation in DE is higher and campaign cost is much lower, meaning it is perhaps a bit less about activating your supporters and more about actually getting people to change their preferences. Volatility seems really high, too - see the recent…

Greens look a blip caused by the slow vaccine rollout. Their peak is right around when people were maximally angry about how far the EU was behind the UK.

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#12

Post by undfg » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:00 AM UTC

fabian2k wrote: post #10

undfg wrote: post #8

The three candidates seem to be from the left. That's really odd. I guess things there are like here in Spain and the right wing is ridiculously emasculated? (Someone flagged this but I would still like an explanation. If you don't want to post it that's fine but you don't have to flag it)

If you mean the chancellor candidates, the most likely one is Laschet from the CDU, which is certainly not left. They're the major conservative party in Germany.

I read their party programme and they weren't conservative. They are, like "right wing" parties in Spain, conservatives only in name. They are as progressive as the rest of left wing parties. Hence my question.

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#13

Post by pudo » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:00 AM UTC

artemonster wrote: post #7

I have immigrated into this country 12 years ago and became citizen 3 years ago and still, to this day, some facets of german culture fascinate me. Most of germans have seriously high threshold for „pain, which reflects in almost every everyday life situation: 1. customer service is abysmal and they are ok with it. 2. bureucratic machine is horrible and they are ok with it. 3. politics stagnating last decades and the…

I really feel what you're saying. It's deeply aggravating. I feel a lot of it is due to the high level of wealth and overall satisfaction that much of German society has experienced for the past few decades (inb4: I know there's poverty here). It's a very weird form of decadence, based on the principle that "this worked well so far".

My coping strategy is to remind myself that it's probably the linked flip side of many of the things that I appreciate - good labour and consumer protection, good healthcare, public transport, a not-totally-fucked income distribution.

But: yeeeaaaah.

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#14

Post by Vespasian » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:01 AM UTC

undfg wrote: post #8

The three candidates seem to be from the left. That's really odd. I guess things there are like here in Spain and the right wing is ridiculously emasculated? (Someone flagged this but I would still like an explanation. If you don't want to post it that's fine but you don't have to flag it)

The CDU is the largest center right party And most definitely NOT on the left of the German political scale.

The greens have some conservative views and are quite popular with middle class, middle wealth people. (White collar workers)

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#15

Post by adrianN » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:01 AM UTC

undfg wrote: post #8

The three candidates seem to be from the left. That's really odd. I guess things there are like here in Spain and the right wing is ridiculously emasculated? (Someone flagged this but I would still like an explanation. If you don't want to post it that's fine but you don't have to flag it)

Most Germans would not consider CDU/CSU to be "left". I think they understand themselves as a center-right conservative party.

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#16

Post by avh02 » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:05 AM UTC

artemonster wrote: post #7

I have immigrated into this country 12 years ago and became citizen 3 years ago and still, to this day, some facets of german culture fascinate me. Most of germans have seriously high threshold for „pain, which reflects in almost every everyday life situation: 1. customer service is abysmal and they are ok with it. 2. bureucratic machine is horrible and they are ok with it. 3. politics stagnating last decades and the…

as big as a fiasco as BER was/is - it turns out it's (attempted) infrastructure expansion. That and stuff like U5 extension, etc (is it a tourist line? sure, but it's work being done). Trialing/using Electric buses is another one (though they have suffered in both heat and cold).

I'll grant you digitization being crap - don't understand why copper is still king here.

Politics I don't pretend to understand or care about, i just like that nobody's shooting/assassinating/oppressing each other (turns out that's a surprisingly high bar in the world).

vaccinations definitely sucked/were late, but it's finally now ahead of many (even first world) countries [0]

[0]: some selection: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#17

Post by dragonwriter » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:06 AM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #15

undfg wrote: post #8

The three candidates seem to be from the left. That's really odd. I guess things there are like here in Spain and the right wing is ridiculously emasculated? (Someone flagged this but I would still like an explanation. If you don't want to post it that's fine but you don't have to flag it)

Most Germans would not consider CDU/CSU to be "left". I think they understand themselves as a center-right conservative party.

Western European center-right is often described as left in the USA.

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#18

Post by adrianN » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:06 AM UTC

undfg wrote: post #12

fabian2k wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you mean the chancellor candidates, the most likely one is Laschet from the CDU, which is certainly not left. They're the major conservative party in Germany.

I read their party programme and they weren't conservative. They are, like "right wing" parties in Spain, conservatives only in name. They are as progressive as the rest of left wing parties. Hence my question.

You seem to use a different definition of "left" and "right" than me. What points in the party programme make them a "left" party?

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#19

Post by exporectomy » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:06 AM UTC

wohfab wrote: post #2

Let's hope, they're wrong. This corrupt idiot will destroy anything and everything. He just signed a paper to make building wind turbines A LOT harder and even wants to prevent people to take legal action against it.

As someone who knows nothing about that issue, what you said is neither here nor there. That makes it look like you're just repeating a political talking point without understanding why it matters or what it means.

There's nothing inherently wrong with making building wind turbines harder. Maybe it's for safety reasons, or to protect the environment or workers rights or property rights or whatever. It's absolutely the government's job to make some activities more difficult when necessary.

Re: German Federal Election Forecast 2021 – INWT

#20

Post by corty » Fri, Jul 02, 2021, 9:08 AM UTC

QuesnayJr wrote: post #11

pudo wrote: post #3

I'm curious how well this will fare in a German context, as opposed to the US, where 538 now seems a solid part of the campaign season. Some differences come to mind: voter participation in DE is higher and campaign cost is much lower, meaning it is perhaps a bit less about activating your supporters and more about actually getting people to change their preferences. Volatility seems really high, too - see the recent…

Greens look a blip caused by the slow vaccine rollout. Their peak is right around when people were maximally angry about how far the EU was behind the UK.

Nope. The blip coincides with and was caused by a corruption scandal involving quite a few CDU/CSU politicians. As well as an increase in Greens' press coverage when they announced their candidates.

Both influences have subsided by now