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Shorting Bitcoin

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231–240 of 334 posts

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#231

Post by rjmunro »

SavantIdiot wrote: post #13

FTA: "I’ve repeatedly criticized Bitcoin specifically and blockchain in general, on the grounds that I’ve seen no practical real-world applications," and "Bitcoin is not usable as a currency because the transaction costs and latency are both too high. (Yes, I know about the Lightning network.)" "My best guess is that pretty soon the supply of greater fools runs out." -- He's on to something! This is a pretty funny ar…

> I’ve seen no practical real-world applications.

I think money laundering and ransomware are both very practical real-world applications. Also I read you can use them for buying illegal drugs on the dark web.

To be fair, they can be used for remittances - sending money back home from working abroad, but I'm not sure how practical that actually is on the ground compared to traditional suppliers like Western Union, or modern ones like TransferWise.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#232

Post by asah »

prionassembly wrote: post #140
breck wrote: post #43

I love this sort of thing. He’s making a bet, explains his reasoning, and does it in the open! That’s great. I disagree that there’s no tech here. IMO public ledgers that never sleep are far superior(thanks to the hard work of many people over the past decade), and their advantage over retail banking will only increase. My online banks keep getting worse, crypto keeps getting better. Think about this: banks are CLOSE…

Eh. Brazil (the government! same one that botched the response to Covid) instituted an universal mechanism to wire any amount of money instantly for free — there goes your use case, not to mention Venmo, etc. Of note: INSTANTLY. You can pay a random handyman you need in an emergency, or split bar tabs, or pay out-of-pocket expenses with doctors, whatever. I use it in lieu of credit cards for e-commerce too. https://w…

Limits exist, they're just undocumented. Fine for day-to-day expenses, not ok for business, real estate etc.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/labsnews.com/en/news/economy/br...

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#233

Post by jschulenklopper »

sonicggg wrote: post #37

The author is talking about buying puts. These have expiration dates and a set price. Not only he believes bitcoin will collapse, he is basically suggesting he has a crystal ball on when it's going to happen.

> he is basically suggesting he has a crystal ball on when it's going to happen.

No. Just some time before Christmas 2021.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#234

Post by anthony_barker »

kensai wrote: post #226
Tenoke wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Germany, and even local transfers (between different banks) are not guaranteed to come fast - sometimes it's quick, sometimes it's next working day. So what's true for you is not true everywhere even in the Western world.

There are in Instant Money transfers in Germany if the banks in transaction support it.

Like he said it seems to depend. Last week sending Revolut to N26 was instant. N26 to Revolut took 3 days (weekend).

There is no sepa rule that requires inst sepa if it is available.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#235

Post by ykevinator3 »

midjji wrote: post #156
AmericanChopper wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a very bad thesis to trade options on. The author believes that BTC is overvalued, but if you look at their reasons for believing it’s overvalued, some of them could have applied to BTC at any point in time over the past several years, and the rest could have applied to BTC and any point in time since it’s creation. By buying puts on bitcoin (derivatives), they’re not only betting that they’re correct, but als…

Bitcoin, like tesla stock is better predicted by treating it as a religion than a rational investment. So how long are people going to believe a kid who said a god knocked her up to avoid getting stoned?

Tesla has a ton of ip, Bitcoin is pretty cloneable

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#236

Post by anthony_barker »

errantmind wrote: post #185
tasuki wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Puts are fine but the swings will often get you liquidated if you use too much leverage. Isn't that the same as saying "swings will often get you liquidated if you use too much leverage"? Whether puts or whatever else, if you use too much leverage, swings will often get you liquidated . Also, I don't think the author used any leverage. He just bought puts.

Yes puts or calls can get you liquidated by swings. I was trying to get across that a lot of people are using high leverage right now to get-rich-quick and, especially in the crypto space, it is risky to the point of being unwise.. unless you have an edge with backtested, medium-term models that adequately account for the wide range of volatility, with automated take-profit / stop-loss in place.

If you purchase the put you can only loose the premium.

Naked puts (writing them) are another story

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#237

Post by anthony_barker »

SavantIdiot wrote: post #13

FTA: "I’ve repeatedly criticized Bitcoin specifically and blockchain in general, on the grounds that I’ve seen no practical real-world applications," and "Bitcoin is not usable as a currency because the transaction costs and latency are both too high. (Yes, I know about the Lightning network.)" "My best guess is that pretty soon the supply of greater fools runs out." -- He's on to something! This is a pretty funny ar…

More than 50% of the worlds population live in a countries with currency controls(China, India, Angola, Nigeria etc). They have reasons to avoid currency controls.

Another less nice example is the guy who had 50 million in BTC who went to german jail and they couldnt' recover the funds. This the first time in history you can have a "buried treasure" that you can protect just by memorizing 12 words.

Greece was almost in continual default from 1800 until the EURO. (Reinhart, Carmen M.; Rogoff, Kenneth. This Time Is Different).

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#239

Post by question11 »

__zack wrote: post #35
tempestn wrote: post #23

I've sold Tether for both USD and CAD without any issue or significant delay. What are the difficulties the author is referencing? (Asking genuinely, not arguing.)

The difference is between exchanging tether and redeeming tether. Exchanging tether is easy as long as there’s a counterparty willing to buy your tether in exchange for USD. But in principle you should be able to go to the “tether mint”, give them your tethers, and they redeem them 1:1 to USD. Apparently this is not very straightforward to do. This podcast episode covers the topic well: https://anchor.fm/cas-piancey/…

USDC mostly solves this as it is not too hard to get a circle account.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#240

Post by dustymcp »

AmericanChopper wrote: post #114
femto113 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except if you believe, as the author does, that the entire market is just scams and insider manipulation there is no meaning to be gleaned from any of the numbers. If it's all a sham it will blow up at some point, it's just a question of when, but that will almost certainly be precipitated by some unpredictable external event.

That’s a very bad thesis to trade options on. The author believes that BTC is overvalued, but if you look at their reasons for believing it’s overvalued, some of them could have applied to BTC at any point in time over the past several years, and the rest could have applied to BTC and any point in time since it’s creation. By buying puts on bitcoin (derivatives), they’re not only betting that they’re correct, but als…

This was my exact thoughts well done
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