Shorting Bitcoin • Hacker News Board

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#21

Post by thinkingkong » Tue, Jun 29, 2021, 5:29 AM UTC

dmichulke wrote: post #11

Reminds me of the time when TSLA MCap got bigger than Volkswagen + BMW + Daimler + a few othere and I bought OTM puts. This was back when TSLA was at 160$ (800$ pre-split)

I think this is a good strategy if you look at the fundamentals. But the thing that's been making BTC work isn't the market or the technology, it's the behavior of other people. That's something that isn't taken into account in his list of justifications.

People are behaving 'irrationally' and it's been working over and over again. It's created throngs of people who are believers and nothing will change their minds.

BTC isn't going anywhere, despite my reservations about it's use as a tool for financial systems.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#22

Post by jkhdigital » Tue, Jun 29, 2021, 5:29 AM UTC

mattmaroon wrote: post #14

hgibbs wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Puts have limited downside?

Yes. Stocks can’t drop below 0.

They can but only if all market participants act irrationally. Just want to make it clear that it’s not a law of nature that stock prices are bounded at 0.

One could imagine a different legal regime in which equity ownership actually carried unlimited liability, in which case negative prices would most certainly be a thing.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#23

Post by tempestn » Tue, Jun 29, 2021, 5:30 AM UTC

I've sold Tether for both USD and CAD without any issue or significant delay. What are the difficulties the author is referencing? (Asking genuinely, not arguing.)

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#24

Post by Bootvis » Tue, Jun 29, 2021, 5:30 AM UTC

hgibbs wrote: post #10

ghufran_syed wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as it's only a small percentage of their portfolio, seems safe enough. The max loss is the put premium. Are you getting it mixed up with selling puts, where your losses are unlimited?

That's not right either, your downside for selling puts is limited by the strike (worst case is you pay K for a stock worth 0). Short call positions are the ones with unlimited downside (worse case is that you get K but have to cover the cost of arbitrarily high priced underlying).

Never mind, misread

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#25

Post by kebman » Tue, Jun 29, 2021, 5:31 AM UTC

danaris wrote: post #3

paulpauper wrote: post #2

so this guy is buying puts on some bitcoin funds. Such a method would have gotten you killed more often than not . nothing in this post suggests he has anything of an edge or a good strategy.

From the second paragraph: > This is part of this blog’s Investing theme, whose Intro[0] makes it clear that I have no investment expertise and nobody should take this as investment advice, because it’s not. It’s just a bloggy disclosure of some of my own financial positions, which I owe readers anyhow. So...yeah, no one's claiming he has an edge or a good strategy. This is based on his beliefs , not intended as good…

If it's so biased and opinionated, what is its value to HN readers? Is there any merit to his opinion? Is there any proof?

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#26

Post by aabhay » Tue, Jun 29, 2021, 5:37 AM UTC

tempestn wrote: post #23

I've sold Tether for both USD and CAD without any issue or significant delay. What are the difficulties the author is referencing? (Asking genuinely, not arguing.)

How much/which exchange? The volume and jurisdiction matters.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#27

Post by Shosty123 » Tue, Jun 29, 2021, 5:38 AM UTC

tempestn wrote: post #23

I've sold Tether for both USD and CAD without any issue or significant delay. What are the difficulties the author is referencing? (Asking genuinely, not arguing.)

Yeah, I'm not sure. Even if a direct CAD pairing wasn't available, I've always been able to exchange my tokens for USDT and then exchange that for CAD and eTransfer it to my bank.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#28

Post by tessierashpool » Tue, Jun 29, 2021, 5:39 AM UTC

SavantIdiot wrote: post #16

dmichulke wrote: post #11

Reminds me of the time when TSLA MCap got bigger than Volkswagen + BMW + Daimler + a few othere and I bought OTM puts. This was back when TSLA was at 160$ (800$ pre-split)

The difference is Tesla makes cars, good cars, that people can use. Bitcoin makes "investors."

OK, but Tesla makes cars that catch fire while parked, and their "profit" comes from selling carbon credits to GM and Fiat.

I agree Tesla is less of a pyramid scheme, but I think it's still a pyramid scheme.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#29

Post by temp8964 » Tue, Jun 29, 2021, 5:40 AM UTC

cocktailpeanuts wrote: post #4

If BTC price doesn't recover soon and falls further, Microstrategy is what will kill BTC. I don't know why BTC investors are so crazy about Microstrategy buying BTC (This would have never happened back in the early days of Bitcoin), but if BTC price goes down further, Microstrategy will be forced to sell their BTC by their shareholders. Otherwise the Microstrategy stock itself will crash. Also when Microstrategy lose…

What do you mean "recover soon"? Two month? One year? Three years? Ten years? BTC has survived so many crashes, why do you think this is it, the final straw?

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#30

Post by minitoar » Tue, Jun 29, 2021, 5:42 AM UTC

Bootvis wrote: post #24

hgibbs wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not right either, your downside for selling puts is limited by the strike (worst case is you pay K for a stock worth 0). Short call positions are the ones with unlimited downside (worse case is that you get K but have to cover the cost of arbitrarily high priced underlying).

Never mind, misread

Short option positions which gp is referring to aren’t really...optional. You sold the option to someone else.