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Shorting Bitcoin

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Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#91

Post by panarky »

lordnacho wrote: post #59

Derivatives guy here. Perfectly fine opinion, but two issues. Why now? This is a general investing issue. Trading costs money, holding a put costs money, so why will the market do what you think in this time frame? Why are the puts cheap? This could be substantiated with some numbers, esp implied volatility. Are they cheap vs history? I don't know, but the reasoning should show why you think so. Note I'm not looking…

Since he bought his puts on 6/26, BTC is up 9.5%, MSTR is up 9.9% and COIN is up 13.5%.

He's already pretty deep underwater.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#92

Post by ffggvv »

surfingdino wrote: post #79

He's betting on prices going down at the end of the current 4-year Bitcoin cycle, which they historically have done. This is just trying to guess when it'll happen. Betting against Coinbase, an exchange, is a bit foolish as exchanges make money every time there is a trade, up or down. Their income is unaffected by market crashes, may even go up. That detailed dig into the past of MicroStrategy is interesting... but I…

actually coinbase’s revenue tracks pretty well to bitcoins price. as when the price crashes people lose interest in it and volume goes way down. this is basically what happened between the end of the last bull market and the start of this one

and the same is true for robinhood with stocks. bull market attracts more investors trying to get rich and drives volume. in turn when it crashes the volume dries up as retail loses interest

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#93

Post by eptcyka »

breck wrote: post #43

I love this sort of thing. He’s making a bet, explains his reasoning, and does it in the open! That’s great. I disagree that there’s no tech here. IMO public ledgers that never sleep are far superior(thanks to the hard work of many people over the past decade), and their advantage over retail banking will only increase. My online banks keep getting worse, crypto keeps getting better. Think about this: banks are CLOSE…

What kind of a bank do you use that doesn't allow you to send money 24/7?

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#94

Post by maratc »

dmichulke wrote: post #11

Reminds me of the time when TSLA MCap got bigger than Volkswagen + BMW + Daimler + a few othere and I bought OTM puts. This was back when TSLA was at 160$ (800$ pre-split)

"The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." — John Maynard Keynes

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#95

Post by SV_BubbleTime »

G3rn0ti wrote: post #44

Many traders still predict Bitcoin to be over 100k by the end of the year. December could align with the bubble peak due to Bitcoin‘s investment cycle triggered by the halving events. That could wreck his short position but if he’s lucky, it will burst earlier.

How many people who aren’t invested in it themselves are predicting it to be over 100k?

The whole system will continue to work until the money isn’t coming in. I know nothing about investing, but come on, this one is obvious.

The only question is when will the money stop coming in?

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#97

Post by otherme123 »

arcticbull wrote: post #62
victorfonseca wrote: post #61

BTC is not money? What it's? Disclosures · I have personally made money buying and selling Bitcoin.

It's best modeled as a speculative asset. It has none of the hallmarks of a good currency. It's not fungible, it's not predictable, it's not cheap to exchange and its value flails around wildly like a decapitated chicken. That's even before you get into the Keynesian vs. Austrian argument that IMO should be long since settled but apparently, here we are.

You are making up the qualities of good currency, and then conclude BTC has none of them.

Qualities of good money are 1) Durability (not losing value with time), 2) Portability, 3) Scarcity (limited supply), 5) Divisibility, 6) Acceptability and 7) Storability.

BTC has all of them except maybe 6). And I'm no defender of BTC, I don't like it and I don't think it will ever be the main currency. It will be at best like the gold backing the day to day exchanges in another kind of "coin", and used only for clearing.

Money can be, and currently is, as "fungible" as annotations in a ledger. Banks are not that different from BTC, except they don't need "proof" because they limit who can add transactions: a VISA transaction is just "write in the ledger -X for this wallet and +X for this other wallet". No gold, bills or any fungible asset is moved around, exactly like BTC.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#98

Post by Animats »

tempestn wrote: post #23

I've sold Tether for both USD and CAD without any issue or significant delay. What are the difficulties the author is referencing? (Asking genuinely, not arguing.)

Tether will work until the day comes when there is a net outflow from Tether. Then it will all come apart, because the backing assets aren't all there.

Like Madoff's fund.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#99

Post by factorialboy »

jakelazaroff wrote: post #73
factorialboy wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Halvenings are overrated. Bitcoin historically peaks 1yr after US elections and then finds a bottom and floats there for 3.5 yrs.

Where by “historically” you mean twice?

2013. 2017. 2021.

Three in three.

Re: Shorting Bitcoin

#100

Post by WalterSear »

xvector wrote: post #65
jonny_eh wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cryptocurrency is a beautiful technology On the surface, ya, but the proof-of-waste at its centre should be reason enough to consider the technology more harmful than not.

Thankfully most cryptos are moving to proof-of-stake.

They ones that count, are not. Bitcoin has no plans to, and Ethereum is delaying PoS for political reasons.
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