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Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

insidermag.net

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Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#671

Starting conditions (where one was born, levels of wealth and opportunity there, one's parents' education and jobs) are shockingly predictive about an individual's future. Hard work leading to social mobility has always been the exception, not the rule. Most will not beat the odds since if they did, those wouldn't BE the odds. A lot of us are just so deluded by survivorship bias borne of listening only to success sto…

This. It is so obviously in-your-face true that I laugh out loud whenever somebody claim that they are “self-made” and owe nothing to the people and society who raised them, protected them, fed them etc. until they finally “made it”.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#672
post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that would contradict the premise, wouldn't it? If an immigrant can "self select" from much worse conditions, why didn't an average poor American? And if it's smth like ability, then how is it not well deserved? :)

> But that would contradict the premise, wouldn't it? If an immigrant can "self select" from much worse conditions, why didn't an average poor American? They did not. They self-selected from largely good opportunities at home which they leveraged into good opportunities in the US. Successful indian-americans are not generally dalit. In fact relatively few indian americans originate from lower-caste families. And ther…

1) Where do you derive the data about "largely good opportunities at home"? Also, what does caste have to do with anything? The actual economic opportunity, quality of education, etc. is what should be compared.

2) Even in the less-dysfunctional countries like India or Russia, an average person makes much less money and receives far less assistance from the state than an average US poor, especially as far as "opportunities" go. Look up the numbers; for a nice example my family made less money per year than the yearly govt spending on an average public school student in the US.

There are some types of poverty in the US that could be explained by bad luck, like being disabled, sure. The other ones using hardship as an excuse just make me laugh. Like, as far as I recall, Nigerian Americans are one of the best educated immigrant groups, far above US-born whites. You cannot seriously claim they face less racism than US-born African-Americans, or that they experienced less hardship in Nigeria; on top of that they also have the difficulties that immigrants face. Sure, they may self-select - but that's exactly my point - any advantage these self-selecting individuals have, they deserve - probably twice over.

Most American poor are vastly more "privileged" (I don't like the word, but it fits) than almost anyone else in the world. But they waste the opportunity, for whatever reason.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#673

Starting conditions (where one was born, levels of wealth and opportunity there, one's parents' education and jobs) are shockingly predictive about an individual's future. Hard work leading to social mobility has always been the exception, not the rule. Most will not beat the odds since if they did, those wouldn't BE the odds. A lot of us are just so deluded by survivorship bias borne of listening only to success sto…

“70 percent of wealthy families lose their wealth by the second generation, and a stunning 90 percent by the third.” -money magazine

Initial Conditions really don't mean much in the long term trend. Short term, sure.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#674

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's traditionally three generations, not six. And it's just human nature to look at things in a relative sense. If you are living a lot better than when you grew up, you are very likely to be comfortable and stop there. Similarly your parents might just be happy to see you reach that next rung, rather than pushing for more. Immigrants doing it in one generation, working blue collar jobs while sending their kids to t…

This is not about barriers (fortunately, most of us do not live in a feudalistic or caste-based or apartheid society, where this would be literally the case); it is about probabilities and effort, even when accounting for genetic differences. It is extremely clear that our society, nowhere in the world, doesn't offer equality of opportunity; based on your birth, even accounting for genetics, your mid-life expected in…

> (fortunately, most of us do not live in a feudalistic or caste-based or apartheid society, where this would be literally the case)

It's great that you agree with me about barriers, but you might mention it to the posters in this discussion who are explicitly making claims of feudalism and apartheid. Beyond that, my post gave a logical explanation for probabilities. I don't see where you provided a counter to that logic, or even addressed what I said. How is my statement about three generations, for example, countered by your claim about predicting mid-life expected income for a single generation?

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#675
The hoarding of opportunity by those who have already made it up the ladder, for their children is a natural response. Everyone wants better for their kids.

It is the job of society, using the government as one of many tools, to help rebalance the game, by raising the floor so that everyone gets a fair chance, even if random bad things happen.

The fewer we let fall through the cracks, the better off we all are in the long run. The worst of us deserves humane treatment.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#676

Starting conditions (where one was born, levels of wealth and opportunity there, one's parents' education and jobs) are shockingly predictive about an individual's future. Hard work leading to social mobility has always been the exception, not the rule. Most will not beat the odds since if they did, those wouldn't BE the odds. A lot of us are just so deluded by survivorship bias borne of listening only to success sto…

At the heart of this debate is the Western ingrained belief in free will, a statement often used by the rich to justify inequality, despite plenty of evidence supporting the contrary.

https://m-g-h.medium.com/free-will-a-rich-fairy-tale-4fecf80...

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#677

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can look at the BLS stats. Less than 0.2% of the workforce is making minimum wage.

Half the reason why minimum wages don't work: If they are too low they do nothing. The other half is that if they are too high they don't create jobs that pay minimum wage. You can't legislate private jobs into existence.

The point of the minimum wage is not to create jobs, it is to ensure that jobs that exist already pay a certain minimum.

The more coherent argument against the minimum wage is that it destroys jobs which cannot be profitable for the employer at the higher wage. The problem with this argument is that the preponderance of research indicates a small magnitude for the elasticity of minimum-wage employment with respect to the minimum wage, generally around -0.05. If a 50% increase in minimum wage results in a 2.5% increase in unemployment in the cohort of people earning near the minimum, and if your aim is to increase the average wage for that cohort, then minimum wage increases do work. The idea that they don't is based on non-quantitative reasoning about the rightness of interfering with markets, or the virtue of work, or a value judgment about a small amount of unemployment outweighing an overall increase in compensation, etc.

I've elided a bunch of detail here, in particular the distinction between minimum-wage elasticity and own-wage elasticity, but this is a good starter:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/impacts-of-minimu...

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#678

Starting conditions (where one was born, levels of wealth and opportunity there, one's parents' education and jobs) are shockingly predictive about an individual's future. Hard work leading to social mobility has always been the exception, not the rule. Most will not beat the odds since if they did, those wouldn't BE the odds. A lot of us are just so deluded by survivorship bias borne of listening only to success sto…

> Hard work leading to social mobility has always been the exception, not the rule. Most will not beat the odds since if they did, those wouldn't BE the odds These claims simply don't hold up against scrutiny. In the US, children born into a family in the bottom quintile of household income have a 58% chance to step up into a higher income bracket as adults, a ~30% chance to realize an above average income as an adul…

But, be born into US is already 5%. Maybe not top 5%.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#679

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This would explain why they have a higher rate of poverty. It has nothing to do with America being uniquely bad at helping immigrants improve their lives. My point is not regarding that, just that the amount of business owners does not help too much in seeing whether they do harder work than others or not. > Exactly what are immigrants not allowed that citizens born in the US are? Citizenship? Permanent residence?…

You seem to be confusing illegal immigrants with legal ones.

Last time I checked there are temporary work visas and immigrants are not citizens, so I don't think I am confusing them.

Re: Survey shows people no longer believe working hard will lead to a better life

#680

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Starting conditions are a factor, but a terrible predictor. If you look at income by the quintile you are born into, it is closer to random than 1:1 predictive. Closer to random would mean a 20% chance of ending on any quintile from any quintile. From your report (which has data from 1991, quite few things changed since then), the probability of being at the top 20% is 3% if you are in the poorest quintile, 40% if…

Random would mean 20% of ending in the same quintile, perfect predictor would mean 100%, so 40% is much closer to random. >you can rephrase the statistic in another way, such as saying that 13% of the people at the lowest quintile should be in the highest income bracket, but they're not there because they started poor. You say "should" but it seems like this is only true if you expect (and want) completely random res…

> Random would mean 20% of ending in the same quintile, perfect predictor would mean 100%, so 40% is much closer to random.

Something that doubles or reduces by 10x the random probability is not "closer to random". I doubt that if you tell something that a factor is "closer to random than to a perfect predictor" they'd expect something like that.

> You say "should" but it seems like this is only true if you expect (and want) completely random results.

There is quite a lot of randomness involved in where one ends up. There is a random distribution of ability, of work industry, location, country, luck, connections, timings... quite a lot of factors so that you'd expect that randomness to dominate over the whole population and things be close to ~20%. In fact, countries with higher social mobility tend to be fairly close to that 20%. In Spain (which is by no means the best at social mobility, but it's the only one I have data at hand from) we are pretty far from that 43% chance of staying at the lower quintile, and also far from the 3% of moving from bottom to top: https://widgets.elpais.com/mapbox/2020/07/atlas-renta/pc_nac...

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