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What would you pay for autonomous driving? Volkswagen hopes $8.50 per hour

arstechnica.com

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Re: What would you pay for autonomous driving? Volkswagen hopes $8.50 per hour

#701

Post by wutbrodo »

bumby wrote: post #687
wutbrodo wrote: post #667

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does automobile software development have the level of oversight that aircraft development has in terms of regulation and approval for use? Nothing in my comment implied this, and I don't disagree that it doesn't. The question is immaterial to the specific topic of discussion: the comparison of server uptime to human-driver reliability as an indicator of the feasibility of functional AV software.

The tone of your response seems to imply I’ve was attacking your position, but that wasn’t my intent. I am legitimately asking how much parity there is regarding oversight regulation between flight and autonomous software, which would help make your point clearer since it has a direct relationship to reliability. However, I do think it’s relevant to the point. If you are making an analogy about reliability but one is…

> seems to imply I’ve was attacking your position, but that wasn’t my intent.

Not quite attacking, but disagreeing with an implied assumption that I didn't make (ie, that I was arguing that AVs were ready for primetime instead of narrowly disputing the flawed reliability comparison in the parent comment).

> I am legitimately asking how much parity there is regarding oversight regulation between flight and autonomous software, which would help make your point clearer since it has a direct relationship to reliability

The reason I figured it was rhetorical is that I thought it was fairly universally known that there's no comparable regulatory apparatus for AVs (yet?). But you're mistaken that this is relevant to my point: the parent comment was discussing the feasibility of AVs by saying "we can't build computers with the uptime of human drivers", and I was pointing out that he had this backwards.

> If you are making an analogy about reliability but one is legally forced to demonstrate reliability while the other is not, does that comparison really make sense with that additional context?

I didn't say AVs were as reliable as aircraft software, nor that they would definitely get to that pt (perhaps they don't need to, as safe stops are much easier on the ground). I was disputing the claim that computer system uptime can't be made as reliable as humans in the current day, using aircraft systems as an in-production example.

Re: What would you pay for autonomous driving? Volkswagen hopes $8.50 per hour

#702

Post by wutbrodo »

ars wrote: post #493
wutbrodo wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Humans drive correctly 99.99999% of the time. We can't can't even keep a computer up and running that well, never mind driving perfectly. This comparison doesn't make any sense. You're comparing _continuous_ operation with the aggregate of the average human's bouts of driving. Even robotaxis aren't going to run constantly. A sensible analogue would be something like aircraft software, which I'd guess does have near…

> You're comparing _continuous_ operation with the aggregate of the average human's bouts of driving. I don't understand what you mean. I'm comparing actual time behind the wheel - hours of correct driving vs hours (well minutes) of incorrect driving. Do the math yourself, take total hours behind the wheel and divide by the accident rate, like I did. You'll get the same results. Depending on your assumptions anywhere…

Is this not a reference to uptime (as in servers)?

> We can't can't even keep a computer up and running that well

That's the comparison that I quoted in my comment and that I was responding to. You're comparing continuous uptime to humans' disconnected (and brief) bouts of driving.

Re: What would you pay for autonomous driving? Volkswagen hopes $8.50 per hour

#703

Post by bumby »

wutbrodo wrote: post #701
bumby wrote: post #687

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The tone of your response seems to imply I’ve was attacking your position, but that wasn’t my intent. I am legitimately asking how much parity there is regarding oversight regulation between flight and autonomous software, which would help make your point clearer since it has a direct relationship to reliability. However, I do think it’s relevant to the point. If you are making an analogy about reliability but one is…

> seems to imply I’ve was attacking your position, but that wasn’t my intent. Not quite attacking, but disagreeing with an implied assumption that I didn't make (ie, that I was arguing that AVs were ready for primetime instead of narrowly disputing the flawed reliability comparison in the parent comment). > I am legitimately asking how much parity there is regarding oversight regulation between flight and autonomous…

Ah, ok. Thanks for taking the time to clarify. It sounds like we’re making the same point but maybe talking past one another.

My point was that AV-aircraft comparison is only valid iff they are held to the same quality standard. It sounds like we agree they are not.

I think it’s important to include that caveat, that’s all. If you assume everybody already knows that, I can understand why you didn’t include it in your original point.

Re: What would you pay for autonomous driving? Volkswagen hopes $8.50 per hour

#704

Post by smnrchrds »

rho4 wrote: post #700
smnrchrds wrote: post #693

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Switzerland! That explains the price! What is the difference between 1st class and 2nd class?

Separate wagons with typically 3 seats per row instead of 4, which are also a bit more comfortable. Less crowded, almost no kids and generally more quiet.

Thank you for the explanation. I wish my country (Canada) had a better public transit infrastructure and was not so car-dependant.

Re: What would you pay for autonomous driving? Volkswagen hopes $8.50 per hour

#705

Post by gimmeThaBeet »

_fat_santa wrote: post #692
gimmeThaBeet wrote: post #549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A bit off topic, and pardon my asking, I'm genuinely a bit fascinated to know how you came to buy what seems to be quite a specific vehicle, with the expectation that you would hate it? If it was just cost and utility (i.e. "yeah it sucks, but I can do x,y,z.. with it") I suppose that makes sense, and I'm glad it turns out you enjoy it. It just seems like 4Runners specifically have quite an enthusiastic following, I'…

> I'm genuinely a bit fascinated to know how you came to buy what seems to be quite a specific vehicle, with the expectation that you would hate it? I've always hated SUVs, but with some lifestyle changes it was clear that my current car then would not suffice and I would need an SUV. So going into this I had the expectation that the car would suit my needs but I wouldn't love the car like some of the previous sports…

Thanks for responding. I can dig it, a utility vehicle you thought would be bleh to drive. And thinking that if there's smoke, something might be cooking.

Re: What would you pay for autonomous driving? Volkswagen hopes $8.50 per hour

#706

Post by mlang23 »

Animats wrote: post #135
mlang23 wrote: post #107

This is sci-fi. AVs are not there yet. And they will not be there for some time to come. Since Google started their damn AV-car-project back around 2014 (or was it even earlier) mainstream media is full of sci-fi. I had to explain to many people that what media is waiving infront of their noses is not something they will be able to consume in the next years. I really wonder why media is so sci-fi-heavy recently. Mayb…

In the more advanced cities, self-driving taxis are here.[1] Shenzhen, where else? Watch it make an unprotected left turn through an intersection cluttered with motorcycles, tuk-tuks, cars, and a mobile crane. WeRide has many videos of their self-driving cars. The production ones have no driver and are used on major roads. The experimental ones have a safety driver and struggle through urban villages with people, bik…

To answer the headline: I'd actually pay extra for a human driver. This stuff is giving me the creeps. Not even as a passenger, must more as a blind pedestrian.

Re: What would you pay for autonomous driving? Volkswagen hopes $8.50 per hour

#707

Post by itchyouch »

bsder wrote: post #189
ako wrote: post #26

With that pricepoint, maybe you don't need to implement actual autonomous driving, but instead it could be implemented by employing millions of dronepilots in some far away country that drive your car for you.

I still don't understand why the "autonomous driving" people aren't concentrating on freeway driving--possibly with special roadway markings--over local driving. I don't really mind driving the 10 minutes to the store. I mind driving 90 minutes between San Diego and LA. I mind driving 90 minutes between San Jose and San Francisco. I mind driving 7 hours between LA and SF. I mind driving driving 24 hours (two 12 hour…

I think most of the car manufacturers are starting to roll out automatic lane centering for the highway in the most recent models of cars.

Also see Comma's Openpilot for adding automatic lane centering to a recent 3-4 year old car from Honda, Hyundai, Toyota and others.

Re: What would you pay for autonomous driving? Volkswagen hopes $8.50 per hour

#708

Post by Qwertious »

lawl wrote: post #696
Qwertious wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average reaction speed of a human to unanticipated situations can be ~3 seconds. Any connection within 1000KMs is generally going to be under 0.1s - an order of magnitude less than a human's.

I'll take your word for that, but remain unconvinced. I don't think it's just about reaction time. Playing a game with input lag is terrible because you always need need to do all your inputs ahead of time in anticipation what a frame 100ms in the future will tell you. That might make precise control very difficult, not just in unanticipated situations such as e.g. emergency braking.

Games generally already involve adrenaline and focus, where you're primed for action to happen.

Unexpected road accidents typically involve someone who may not even be thinking about driving, who then have to notice the random screech, focus their eyes and process what's happening, then determine they need to immediately break, then break.

The problem with input lag isn't that human input is under 100ms, it's that too much of a gulf between input and on-screen response breaks the feedback loop - your brain struggles to connect your input alterations to an alteration actually happening. If you're throwing a ball, when you twist your wrist the ball is twisted immediately when the wrist holding it is twisted (because it's physically pinned to the hand that's physically attached to the wrist, and literally cannot be out of sync with the fingers gripping it).

It's like how VR users need under 30ms of latency or they throw up, except less drastic.

Re: What would you pay for autonomous driving? Volkswagen hopes $8.50 per hour

#709

Post by woleium »

johndubchak wrote: post #588
throwawayzRUU6f wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a large and perhaps unsolvable problem of the state of the art solutions that doesn't get nearly as much attention as it should - even if the car can safely handle 99% or 99.9% of the situations, the algorithms are not really able to detect if they're in the last 0.1%. The car will slam into stationary trucks, suddenly brake for no reason, consider the tollbooth to be a bus - all with utmost confidence it's d…

That "brake for no reason" is a big one. I have a 2015 GMC SUV that has "adaptive cruise control" which I (used to) love. Since my last service, it seems they've updated it and it's far more sensitive than it used to and seems to break in many situations where it previously did not. What sucks about that is the vehicles behind me are caught off-guard with no obvious signs of the need to break and then the jackass in…

I had a similar issue, turned out the tech had moved the sensor and it needed recalibration
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