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Europe is now a corporate also-ran. Can it recover its footing?

economist.com

351–360 of 905 posts

Re: Europe is now a corporate also-ran. Can it recover its footing?

#351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do it then. Explain why we shouldn’t have Apple.

Huge companies concentrate power and distort the market. They can then extract rent from the economy by forcing others to play by their rules. Talking about Apple specifically, they haven't released an innovative phone in years, but are still selling their phones for premium prices. They invest huge amounts of money in marketing to influence consumers to buy their products for prestige rather than any cost/benefit an…

If Huawei or someone else was building a better mobile experience people would be buying that over Apple.

What is an innovative phone? The iPhone 12 looks marvellous, runs great, is secure, gets constant updates unlike android and tries to preserve privacy. Apple Pay is awesome, makes me spend more cause of how fluid it is but still is an amazing experience. The software with the hardware makes apple great.

Re: Europe is now a corporate also-ran. Can it recover its footing?

#352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe had iPhone precursors before iPhones were a thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_Communicator And don't forget ARM was initially a UK/EU design. Arduino and Pi still are. Also not doing so badly with fintech and entertainment. https://www.information-age.com/value-of-european-tech-compa...

> Europe had iPhone precursors before iPhones were a thing That’s the point. Where are they? They couldn’t compete due to lack of scale. They couldn’t scale due to structural restrictions on scale. The next iPhone isn’t going to come from Europe. It may be first developed there. But an American or Chinese copycat will rapidly advance upon them.

The previous range of state of the art smartphones did come from Europe. They couldn't compete but not because of structural restrictions on scale - just because of a series of bad decisions that were independent of the continent they were developed on.

It's more likely the next generation will come exclusively from China - not because of structural restrictions on scale but because it's deliberately built up its electronics manufacturing base while the US and Europe allowed theirs to dwindle because short term profit margins outweighed long term industrial strategy.

Re: Europe is now a corporate also-ran. Can it recover its footing?

#353
A lot of US wealth is fake wealth in the stock market which is propped up by artificial money printing. EU wealth is real wealth, mostly outside of the stock market and hidden from view.

Any stock could be artificially propped up to be worth 1 trillion dollars. Just issue 1 billion shares and trade a tiny subset of those shares (e.g. only 1000 shares) at $1000 per share each day; there you have your trillion dollar company (since market cap is price per share times number of shares). You only need $1 million in cash to pull off this scheme. You just need to make sure that the vast majority of shares are kept off the market. This is not as difficult to achieve as it seems. The reason it's fake wealth is because none of the billionaire shareholders can cash out more than 100k in a day without massively crashing their net worth unless the money printer comes to the rescue at just the right time.

Re: Europe is now a corporate also-ran. Can it recover its footing?

#354

This article is truly bizarre. The main point it makes is that the top 500 US companies grew faster than the top 500 European ones in the last decade or so. But then it quickly mention, without any further analysis, that both their GDP actually grew at a similar pace. So the entire EU economy grew at the same speed than the US one but not its 500 bigger companies. So all else being equals it means that the smaller US…

So the entire EU economy grew at the same speed than the US one but not its 500 bigger companies.

This is misleading. The article says the poorer (former communist) eastern European countries got richer, which brought up the average.

Re: Europe is now a corporate also-ran. Can it recover its footing?

#355

As usual the article is almost exclusively concerned with market capitalization as an indicator of economic success. Countries like Germany are dominated by small and middle-class, family owned business. 'Big corporate' is indeed more successful in the US or China but it's just one model to manage an economy and I don't think it's that great. One of the most important points is also buried at the end of the article >…

Putting all your eggs in one basket with a handful of extremely large companies might not be a long term winning strategy. Companies fail eventually. Big companies are no exception. When they do, things get ugly.

The FANG companies are great at hoarding wealth but not so great at converting that wealth into new things. You need small, nimble companies for that. And not necessarily the VC funded Silicon Valley variety. Which of course is basically the FANG companies (and their clique of wealthy investors) trying to own and monopolize the future.

A dynamic you see in Germany where I currently live that I find very interesting is that of family owned businesses thriving and adapting to modern times every few decades. Germany has a lot of very wealthy families and some of these businesses are multi billion euro companies that you probably have heard off and there are loads more that you may not have heard off that are also worth billions.

Lately some of these companies are discovering the virtues of going online with their business. You might argue a few decades too late. But we are talking real businesses, with real markets, real customers, and real profits, real products, etc. They'll be fine. They are simply adapting and integrating commodities like the internet and making it their own. In some cases they simply skip a few steps and fast forward to what many other companies might still consider science fiction. Some of them make it work and prosper, some don't. And they disappear or get replaced by something more successful. It's organic, highly adaptive, chaotic, and competitive. You might even say that this is capitalism actually working.

Some of those commodities are provided by the above mentioned FANG companies. But how crucial are they really long term? Amazon is nice and all but it's basically just a logistics company with a side business of running cloud based services (or the other way around). I've used both and it's fine. But I also use competing services and products. Amazon being big doesn't make them better at what they do. Often it's the opposite actually. Bureaucratic, slow to adapt, not able to tap into opportunities when the payoff isn't measured in billions/trillions, etc. It takes more agile/nimble companies to do that. You find these companies all over the world.

Re: Europe is now a corporate also-ran. Can it recover its footing?

#356
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll end up with fewer businesses, but the ones that won't get started are the ones people aren't really willing to put effort in to starting. You'll only really lose the easy "fill in a form and off you go" businesses. I don't imagine that's much of a loss. If someone has an idea, and a real drive to start, then they can start pretty much anywhere, even if it isn't super simple to register a company. So, really, m…

The major problem in EU is not really starting the companies. Most countries have ways to incorporate by filing a form and sending an email or two. The problem though is financing, French investors for example are really stingy and you won’t get somebody to just throw a few millions at you to see if you succeed. France has decided to build the “French Silicon Valley” multiple times by grouping schools and companies t…

> If you start a company here, better think about profitability from the get go.

How is this a bad thing? Compare this requirement to, say, Uber, who has been losing billions, and has used investor money to engage in price dumping to corner the market.

Re: Europe is now a corporate also-ran. Can it recover its footing?

#357
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The major problem in EU is not really starting the companies. Most countries have ways to incorporate by filing a form and sending an email or two. The problem though is financing, French investors for example are really stingy and you won’t get somebody to just throw a few millions at you to see if you succeed. France has decided to build the “French Silicon Valley” multiple times by grouping schools and companies t…

> French investors for example are really stingy and you won’t get somebody to just throw a few millions at you to see if you succeed Isn't that...normal? Where did the attitude come from - that startups are somehow entitled to funding worth of several lifetime median incomes, for their half-baked business ideas that are unlikely to ever turn profit? That if the country doesn't shower the founders with angel investor…

It has problems. If you have an idea that will take you a year to develop with 10 people, you need one million up front (simplifying a lot). But if the investors only give you 250k, they you need to spend time working on getting that missing 750k which will dilute your focus from the product you actually want to build. But the initial investor will still want that product.

I definitely think that there is some middle ground to find between not being able to rise money for any project, and being able to get 100M funding for a juicer.

Re: Europe is now a corporate also-ran. Can it recover its footing?

#358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is a thriving tech scene in Europe and we do quite well! Is there really ? I see attempts at copying the US tech scene, but a lot of it seems structured to suck money out of government funds and programs. I see very little private investment. Just recently I talked to a local VC, in a casual chat about how they started their fund I found out they pulled money out of a EU fund, they had to put up like 25% of t…

Also wages in tech in the EU are laughably bad compared to USA. I'm in the UK, same problem. Yet everyone seems to think that a couple weeks more holiday makes up for it.

Wages in tech are laughably bad anywhere in the world, when compared to US. Tech landscape in Canada, Australia, Japan, Korea or Taiwan looks much more like Europe than like US. US is the outlier here, not Europe

Re: Europe is now a corporate also-ran. Can it recover its footing?

#359

I've lived in a few different parts of the EU, and couldn't imagine a worse idea than starting a company there (which I did, once). Starting is hard enough without the general negative attitudes, the government insanities, the insane taxes, the low work ethic, the 8 weeks of vacation every month (I exaggerate, slightly). And I was in one of the two best EU countries, God only knows how bad it is in Spain or Italy or…

You are exaggerating as you say yourself, but these things are mostly not issues at all. You just hire people (and that does not cost much: made a company including employees a few weeks ago for 1000E first year including accounting and payroll, no work from me; if 1000E is an issue, maybe do something else) to handle them, and, you put some provisions in for the stuff you mention, like in the US, to use your ranting language, you do for the over the top insane crazy bonkers legal crap you have there and find normal. At least paying some poor sod I have to fire a few months more does not keep me up at night as I know this upfront. Legal shit does but that's not relevant in the EU (sue me, see where that goes). You are used to the one, I am to the other.

The real EU problem is on the one hand conservative nature: almost no way to get significant investment here without actually proving you already (before you started!) can pay it back 10x. And then what you rightly say: this is not a union (yet): most countries just don't mesh and the language and culture barriers are somewhat crippling. Not how you say because those barriers do not exist anymore for decades already. Not like the current US yet but things take time: think you had some civil war and such. We are still recovering from border altering world wars and some idiots cutting up this continent like it was a cake after. Let's give half to an idiot Russian dictator and let's not bother to remove Franco. This takes time. Unless you install an actual dictator for the entire thing, this takes time in any place.

Not sure if these will be solved ever but not in my lifetime.

And another cultural thing: I like free time: that you do not probably means something you might want to discuss with someone, but working all hours of the day is something I do not miss and do not wish on anyone.

And as last point: what company do you run or what is your yearly turnover? Because, besides all your ranting, there is the real meat. How is the great US of A working out for your personally with all its blessings? Because I am afraid it will be slightly disappointing after all this. I mean with my 8 weeks a month vacation I have time to write tripe like this, but you...

Re: Europe is now a corporate also-ran. Can it recover its footing?

#360
post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“No big companies” is a fine policy for things that don’t require a lot of money to innovate on. A small business will never be capable of producing anything like the iPhone for example. Pushing the envelope on tech is very expensive and this is where Europe’s current model doesn’t work. If it’s just companies reselling existing things or incremental tech (e.g. grocers, telecoms, utilities, airlines, etc), then small…

Software often does not rely on huge capital. There‘s a bunch of European companies that have a good chance of doing exceptionally well (klarna, trade republic, celonis, biontech come to my mind, for example).

That's changing. A search engine index requires titanic amounts of capital. Likewise so does building a web services platform that can compete.

Meanwhile, if you don't have a platform like that to build off you are severely constrained in many other markets. Look at elastic - this is the kind of business that will dry up in the next 5-7 years. It's structurally unable to compete without being part of a major web services platform.

It used to be that building a car company didn't require a huge amount of capital, either. Detroit had hundreds of small automotive businesses before consolidation under the big 3 took place. We are witnessing the same process take place in tech.

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