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The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

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Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#261

Post by _Microft »

pdpi wrote: post #256
_Microft wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If batteries do not make progress fast enough, synthetic fuels might be a temporary(?) solution. With these we can have the advantage of the high energy-density of hydrocarbon fuels for use cases like airplanes without having the climate effect of fossil fuels. Remember that the problem with fossil fuels is that they increase the amount of carbon in (short term) circulation which is what leads to further accumulation…

> Producing synthetic fuels would remove carbon from the environment before releasing it on use again, leading to a net-zero effect. Unfortunately, that assumes producing those synthetic fuels has no carbon output other than the fuel itself.

The process may have as much carbon emissions as it needs and even more as long as none of them can eventually be traced back to fossil sources.

„Fossil“ is the actually bad property of these fuels.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#262

Post by aillarra »

dylan604 wrote: post #165
quickthrowman wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn’t go out where I live, but you could instead get a diesel generator and not have to worry about utilities

That's not what I meant. Eventually, it will go out for the entire planet. It is not an unlimited resource. Then what?

People in general is not aware there are physical limits with energy sources and materials. We won't grow forever, actually we'll probably shrink once we hit the limits.

It's going to be a shock for a lot of people, specially in techno-optimistic communities as HN.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#263

Post by ben_w »

zizee wrote: post #252
ben_w wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A battery for $2k would pay for itself in California quickly Anyone who can find a spare $2k can buy one and quickly find they now have more than $2k spare, but you’d be amazed how many people, even in a rich part of the world like CA, don’t have as much spare cash as the average developer. https://samvimesbootstheory.com/ Like I said, “not zero, but…”

This is such an unrealistically pessimistic assessment. You just need to count the number of rooftop solar installations there are in the world to get an idea of the market size. Another $2k investment to get significantly more value out of an existing multithousand outlay would be a no brainer for most of them.

I’m not saying nobody will value them ever under any circumstances, I’m replying to someone saying “Who wouldn't get one?” with “you’d be surprised…”

Mainly I’m expecting grid-corrected batteries of this type to be owned and operated by power companies and governments rather than by individual home owners; and most privately owned batteries to be the ones in cars rather than permanently attached to houses.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#264

Post by DalasNoin »

gameswithgo wrote: post #112
cbmuser wrote: post #110

Yes, but their energy density has hardly changed and every gasoline tank beats your average LiIon battery by a factor of 10: > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_chemical_rea...

Don’t forget to account for the differences in engine and drivetrain efficiency. a gasoline engine gets way less of the gasoline's energy to the wheels. The engines of today are 30-40% efficient iirc, and then you lose more in the tranmission, differentials, etc. Electric motors are ~80-96% efficient and there is less transmission losses involved after that too. also energy density of cells and packs continues to imp…

Additionally, electric engines and drive-trains are much lighter. You don't need a gearbox, compressor and many other components. This makes up for some of the extra weight of the battery.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#265

Post by ben_w »

oblio wrote: post #232
adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably less explody than a propane tank. Turns out that pretty much any form of energy storage can release a bunch of energy in a short time if pushed hard enough.

I was thinking the same thing until someone pointed out that lard stores a ton of energy but you can't really make it explode. I hope.

Now I want to know if someone has made a butter-fuelled hybrid rocket, and not why not.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#266

Post by mxschumacher »

127 wrote: post #251
_Microft wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If batteries do not make progress fast enough, synthetic fuels might be a temporary(?) solution. With these we can have the advantage of the high energy-density of hydrocarbon fuels for use cases like airplanes without having the climate effect of fossil fuels. Remember that the problem with fossil fuels is that they increase the amount of carbon in (short term) circulation which is what leads to further accumulation…

About biofuels... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpEB6hCpIGM

The environmental impact and cost are of course important to consider, but for energy, there's also always the geopolitical aspect to comsider. Having the capacity to make fuels from plants means some independence from Saudi Arabia and Russia for the western world. The shock of 1973 has left its mark.

Having a huge supply chain for corn also drives innovation and scale in that industry, should corn become rare because of a drought, it would be relatively straightforward to redirect the corn supply into food.

When watching the video, what struck me as absurd is more the energy waste from meat production.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#267

Post by andai »

harperlee wrote: post #238
oblio wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we fix everything except for aircraft, we will have done enough. At that point aircraft can keep using fossil fuels for a while longer. Cars, trucks, buses, trains, HVAC, factories are what needs to be electrified ASAP.

And boats!

Are there any electric boats yet? Especially curious about the feasibility for shipping boats. The density seems to be less of a concern there.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#268

Post by ajuc »

andai wrote: post #267
harperlee wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And boats!

Are there any electric boats yet? Especially curious about the feasibility for shipping boats. The density seems to be less of a concern there.

https://solarimpulse.com/efficient-solutions/solar-electric-...

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#269

Post by ratsforhorses »

oblio wrote: post #233
FabHK wrote: post #224

Nice that the cost has come down. Unfortunately, that which makes electric cars and planes feasible, namely energy density (Wh/litre) and specific energy (Wh/kg), has not improved that rapidly. The article mentions a factor of 3.4 over 30 years for energy density, ie 4% p.a., or doubling every 17 years. I think electric aircraft need another doubling or two in specific energy to become feasible, so another few decade…

If we fix everything except for aircraft, we will have done enough. At that point aircraft can keep using fossil fuels for a while longer. Cars, trucks, buses, trains, HVAC, factories are what needs to be electrified ASAP.

Why not replace plane travel with hyperloop? Airplanes are high polluters, pay little taxes (none on fuel) , require massive bailouts and the only US civilian airplane maker is a soon to be anachronism...

On the other hand...the infrastructure requirements for a cross coast hyperloop venture...especially if impulsed by government would resolve a lot of things...besides couldn't it be used for cargo..Amazon might be interested ...and imagine the billboard/advertising opportunities..

https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p09jszr6/are-floating-pods-th...

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#270

Post by leoedin »

walrus01 wrote: post #231
FabHK wrote: post #224

Nice that the cost has come down. Unfortunately, that which makes electric cars and planes feasible, namely energy density (Wh/litre) and specific energy (Wh/kg), has not improved that rapidly. The article mentions a factor of 3.4 over 30 years for energy density, ie 4% p.a., or doubling every 17 years. I think electric aircraft need another doubling or two in specific energy to become feasible, so another few decade…

If one looks at the Wh/kg of the very best li ion batteries right now (about 250Wh/kg) and then compares it to the Wh/kg in avgas or jet a or diesel, it's nuts. Even if you lose 40-60% to waste heat. The amount of energy contained in those fuels is ridiculously dense by comparison.

Not only that, hydrocarbon fuels also disappear after use - meaning you get another massive boost from the weight dropping over time, as the energy required by an aircraft to cruise is partially dependent on it's weight. So the energy density of batteries is effectively even lower than on face value.
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