Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is real, shipping technology. See 3d nand flash cells, see stacked cache and HBM memory. All the usual characters are working on it. Intel, AMD (TSMC), Samsung. Cooling is an issue, but there are solutions.
3d cells for nand aren't the same as 3d CPU cores. Nand is incredibly simple which makes it possible to do things like 3d cells which would otherwise be more complicated. There's a reason memory can generally beat computational cores to smaller node sizes. It's because highly uniform circuits are much easier to manufacture. A lot of problems present in CPU logic cores (such as cross talk) just aren't present to the s…
The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
131–140 of 330 posts
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#132Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yea, AA batteries have definitely not gotten cheaper
AA is a form-factor, not a chemical technology. You can get lithium AA batteries. You probably mean alkaline cells have not gotten cheaper.
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#133Earlier quoted context omitted.
"most of the people who do have $2k to spare don’t live in places with unreliable electricity" Increasing the mix of renewables in the electricity networks will mean most people live in places with unreliable electricity going forward. The proposed $2k 30kWh home battery backup could well be the adaptation many of us have to make.
um, no, we are not going to have unreliable electricity because people's lives depends on it. We will have grid scale batteries, and the grid will charge you more or less depending on when you are using energy. it does not make sence to have such essential equipment randomly distributed through the population where I have to fight my landlord to repair the damn thing or have it not cause a house fire, while the guy i…
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#134Earlier quoted context omitted.
3d chips. Imagine current size with 1 million layers. Sure it will start with just a few layers. And many obstacles to be overcome like temp and delay. But one day our cpus will look like little cubes. Moore's law can continue for at least another 30 years
That's a continuation of moore's law, it's the same as having a bigger chip horizontally, or more chips. You can make giant chips but you need giants bank accounts. It does not reduce price per transistor because each layer still has to be manufactured the same way
The silicon is not actually the expensive part.
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#135Funny, it seems like batteries for my car are like 2-3x what they used to be.
Well, the technology on 12v car batteries has continued to advance. /s It’s ridiculous how expensive they’ve become. More so when there is no R&D costs associated. Manufacturers simply slap on a different name and sell it at a premium.
You can look at the 25Y lead price chart here: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lead
So much of the difference comes from that.
Though there has been quite a bit of development on lead acid batteries, and the last 10-15 years have actually been quite exciting. The focus is more on the deep cycle/energy storage side of them, as opposed to car batteries (which, as you note, are largely a solved problem). But there have been some very real innovations and developments, mostly related to carbon additives into the plates in various forms.
Cycling lead acid creates sulfation on the plates - it's quite literally how the chemistry works. On most of the pure metal plates (lead or alloyed for strength or other useful attributes), running at partial state of charge for any real length of time tends to turn these soft sulfation points (that dissolve back during charging) into a harder form of sulfation that doesn't easily dissolve back. This leads to a capacity loss, and general loss of function as more and more of the plate area is covered in these hard crystals that block any real function.
Sometimes an equalize charge (high voltage) can break them up, sometimes various pulse chains can help break them free or re-dissolve them, but it's been a long standing problem with lead acid, especially for energy storage (which is more likely to be partial state of charge for long periods of time).
In the past decade or two, people have been experimenting with various carbon additives in the plates, and for reasons I don't understand (and I'm honestly not sure they understand either), these work to help prevent the sulfation from hardening. You see it in most of the solar focused batteries these days (Trojan's name for it is Smart Carbon), and what it means is that even after a few weeks of running at partial state of charge, the battery is more likely to full drive off the sulfation and charge fully when recharged. It improves capacity, and substantially improves lifespan in certain operating modes.
And to touch on car batteries, the various "mild hybrid" systems that adjust alternator output to help improve efficiency (leave alternator load light until braking, then load up the alternator and charge the battery quickly) tend to benefit from this sort of change as well, because they cycle a car battery far deeper than a typical starter only use would do.
Pushing things to the limit of lead acid technology, Firefly Energy (which I believe was spun off Caterpillar - yes, the earth moving equipment company) has an interesting lead-carbon-foam battery that, from everything I've seen, behaves an awful lot more like a lithium battery than anything normal for lead. It provides a lot of current, and it more or less doesn't care what state of charge you keep it at. Charge it fully for a cycle or two, and even after long extended partial state of charge operation, it will recover original capacity. I believe it's also a lot less prone to shedding active material during charging, which is the end case of a lot of lead acid batteries (you literally end up with the bulk of the plate material at the bottom of the cell, and a good deep cycle battery will have a larger well at the bottom to help prevent shorting a cell group).
Despite being 150 years old, there's still very much a lot of new development in lead acid batteries, and they've continued to improve quite a bit in recent years.
Plus, unlike lithium, we actually have incredibly good recycling for them. Something like 98% of lead acid batteries are recycled (at least in some countries, others have low rates), and just about every part can be reused. The lead, the acid, and the casing can all be quite reasonably recycled (smelting, purifying, and grinding into plastic pellets) into new batteries with no real loss of capability.
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#136Earlier quoted context omitted.
hasn't it always referred to transistor count and not performance?
Oxford Dictionary says: "the principle that the speed and capability of computers can be expected to double every two years, as a result of increases in the number of transistors a microchip can contain." Which notably mentions performance. I have often interpreted Moore's Law to be the fact that doubling improvements in performance will continue roughly every 16-18 months, but not always directly proportionally to t…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
Would be interested to know if the process inside Oxford's is as precise to distinguish, or if they intentionally dumbed it down.
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#137Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, I’ve been buying 2500 mAH batteries rated for 20A draw for 5.50 a piece, mostly Sony and Panasonic from illumn
I am curious, what kind of projects do you do with those batteries, what is their use for? Thank you
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#138Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are still many ways this may change. 3d transistors (which are currently used), different materials, and 3d chips (stacking layers of chips). We are not yet close enough to the end to say where it is, so that's out of sight IMHO.
Like I said, cooling is going to be a major issue that doesn't currently have a solution (as far as I know) Even if it does, you are going to run into the real problem that even if you can cool a 600W CPU, would the average customer WANT to have such power hungry parts? Now imagine the problem in server space where the CPUs are already constrained by power consumption. The entire reason cloud service providers are lo…
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#139I don't think this applies to Duracell or Energizer alkaline batteries unfortunately :( Of course reading the article they are talking about Lithium Ion batteries.
I would just buy some Panasonic eneloops(NiMH - not an ad, just the battery I have went with after researching this quite a bit) whenever you need to buy alkaline batteries. They are about twice as expensive but are rechargeable 2000+ times, hold their charge for over a year, and don't degrade very much. Eventually all of your devices will have eneloops in them and you will stop buying batteries altogeher.
Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades
#140That's not the price of batteries in general, that's the price of Li-Ion batteries. Were Li-Ion batteries mass produced in 1991?
Yea, AA batteries have definitely not gotten cheaper