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Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

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Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#421

Post by an_opabinia »

Spooky23 wrote: post #412
an_opabinia wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm afraid of being downvoted, but the algorithm for an Amazon return looks something like: Your LTV = Forecasting total revenue from your transactions so far Revenue = The sum of your past transactions Refund? = LTV - Revenue - Refund Cost > 0 This is a much simpler, much more logical model. It appears everywhere, like with credit card disputes or when you get service discounts to not leave. Because when you don't g…

I think you’re right that is the core of the model. Good customers always get treated better than Joe Rando. But Amazon has more information and uses that too. They know loss rates by zip code or by block by carrier. Usually items I order for them that are higher shrink risk don’t go through their Amazon distribution network and come UPS or USPS. Anecdotally, I’ve noticed those returns are easier — they probably dump…

The model isn’t aware of that stuff. They feed groups into the model, it might be grouped by zip code. But there isn’t a variable for zip code in the model. The model just forecasts LTV and nothing else, from transaction histories.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#422

Post by CPLX »

judge2020 wrote: post #392
plank_time wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what Tesla is doing with their solar roof product. They raised prices by 50% even though people already had signed contracts. All their communication is incredibly insidious, telling people that they need to sign the new contract, when in fact that’s false, in hopes of convincing customers to cancel their order. I can’t wait until a class action lawsuit rips them a new asshole at this point.

Contracts require consideration - as long as they didn’t charge you they don’t have to fulfill their end of the contract.

That’s wildly incorrect.

A failure of a contract for lack of consideration would be if there’s no exchange of value contemplated, ever. For example if I made a promise to provide you a valuable service for nothing in return.

In this situation both sides agreed to exchange something of value so there’s obviously consideration.

They could make an argument that no damages have occurred and claim you have no credible allegation of being harmed, but that’s a different thing and far from automatic.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#423

Post by dcolkitt »

judge2020 wrote: post #392
plank_time wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what Tesla is doing with their solar roof product. They raised prices by 50% even though people already had signed contracts. All their communication is incredibly insidious, telling people that they need to sign the new contract, when in fact that’s false, in hopes of convincing customers to cancel their order. I can’t wait until a class action lawsuit rips them a new asshole at this point.

Contracts require consideration - as long as they didn’t charge you they don’t have to fulfill their end of the contract.

This isn't true. Any promise is sufficient for consideration. Cash doesn't actually have to change hands for a contract to be in effect.

If this wasn't the case then every single financial futures contract or swap would be null and void. These contracts incur no cash flow on day one. They're merely a promise by one part to pay another based on some event in the future. If your legal theory was true, then one party could simply cancel any losses by voiding the contract as soon as the position moves against them.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#425

Post by darksaints »

ageitgey wrote: post #215

Like most people, I've ordered a lot of packages (hundreds?) on Amazon and almost never had a problem. In the rare case of a problem, Amazon would instantly refund me. But almost all those orders are under $1000. Everything changes when you have a problem with an expensive order. Amazon has a price threshold where the support system is different and the normal CS people are powerless. During lockdown, I ordered a Son…

I too have had a similar experience, but it was for a series of bad deliveries by the same Amazon Logistics delivery driver. Almost every delivery was fucked up in some way or another: delivered late but marked as delivered, delivered on time but not marked as delivered until it was stolen, delivered to inaccessible locations, delivered to other residents drop boxes, etc.

I called amazon every time it happened. I told them the various things that their driver did, explicitly asking them to replace that specific driver. And after a while it was like they flagged my account as fraudulent (customer service began issuing canned responses with no follow up).

Eventually, after a few egregious cases, my property management company sued Amazon. Overnight, packages started being delivered correctly, and I haven't had to call CS since...but I now refuse to buy anything of value from Amazon anymore due to a combination of fraudulent marketplace items and the lingering fear that if something goes wrong I won't be able to get any compensation for it because my account has been flagged.

Funnily enough, Ali Express is now the more reputable company in my eyes.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#426

Post by bradleyjg »

franga2000 wrote: post #407
an_opabinia wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm afraid of being downvoted, but the algorithm for an Amazon return looks something like: Your LTV = Forecasting total revenue from your transactions so far Revenue = The sum of your past transactions Refund? = LTV - Revenue - Refund Cost > 0 This is a much simpler, much more logical model. It appears everywhere, like with credit card disputes or when you get service discounts to not leave. Because when you don't g…

> Like how else could it work? They investigate everything, spending more money than the cost of the refund? Is anyone actually arguing for fewer "easy refunds" and more investigation? I though the point was that given the fact that most of their refunds are handled algorithmically, they have plenty of time to handle the rest of the refunds quickly and with care. If I don't get my order, I want my money back. If the…

At the end of the day your remedy is to sue someone. Everything else is a courtesy shortcut.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#427

Post by aydwi »

thebruce87m wrote: post #231
speeder wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon arrived in force kinda recently in my country. My parents are amazed by it and started making expensive purchases... And now are surprised at how shitty their delivery is. The worst case was when they bought some medicine for their dog and a expensive screen to use in their business. The dog medicine arrived on a friday, I was present and heard a car horn, went to check, and it was a random normal car, a lady…

My general rule is: Do not buy anything electrical (plug in or battery) or anything that goes in to your body from Amazon. I would definitely not buy dog medicine.

I think I could use your rule.

Amazon delivery is outrageously atrocious in my (poor) country. As an instance, this was the condition of an assorted pack of fruit juices that got delivered to me just yesterday: https://imgur.com/a/sSMmgot

To top it off, (rather poorly trained) Amazon support encouraged me to consume the contents of the pack with no understanding of what a health hazard means; at which point I hung up and cancelled my Prime membership.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#428

Post by wpietri »

ageitgey wrote: post #215

Like most people, I've ordered a lot of packages (hundreds?) on Amazon and almost never had a problem. In the rare case of a problem, Amazon would instantly refund me. But almost all those orders are under $1000. Everything changes when you have a problem with an expensive order. Amazon has a price threshold where the support system is different and the normal CS people are powerless. During lockdown, I ordered a Son…

Perfectly believable. The thing I really loved about Amazon is that they had their act together. But that has declined drastically over the decades; now whenever I actually have to deal with them it seems like there's a ton of internal chaos.

In June 2018, I ordered a soccer magazine, "Futbol Total", for my soccer-mad nephew. It said it would arrive in 4-16 weeks, which seemed weird. I waited it out, and no magazine. I contacted them and they said they were on it and it would arrive soon. At 5 months in I just canceled the order, only to get an email saying, "Unfortunately, we weren’t able to cancel the items you requested and these items will soon be shipped." I spent a bunch of time in chat and on the phone getting the runaround, complete with new ticket numbers, promises of personally following up, and even a $20 credit. But they were firm on saying, "Please be assured, we will ship this item very soon."

Occasionally I'd try again, insisting that they either cancel the order or actually ship it. Each time I was told it would be shipped. Long after I'd given up, in late October 2020, they finally canceled it, saying, "We regret to inform you that, due to a technical error, we will not be able to fulfill your order." For all of Amazon's vaunted customer focus, my impression was of a lot of unhappy, fearful customer service staff passing the buck so they could avoid bad metrics.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#429

Post by tlogan »

an_opabinia wrote: post #411
ncfausti wrote: post #398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for this, very informative. So LTV is forecasted "lifetime value". So, if I'm 30, they'll estimate ~50 years of revenue going forward from me and use this as LTV?

> So, if I'm 30, they'll estimate ~50 years of revenue going forward from me and use this as LTV? No. If you're 30, they might (or might not) group you with other 30 year olds, if that's important, and run this model against you all as a group. But you don't punch in "he has 50 years left to live" in the model. The model doesn't know any of that, it just knows your transaction history, and it works better when the po…

Don’t forget there is also this: https://www.theretailequation.com/

Basically, these models can pretty much predict whether you are pathological or good one. I know that models also include things like if you are a pet owner, number of pets, siblings, number of disputes in cc, etc.

Re: Amazon refused to refund $7k after shipping an empty box instead of a Sony A1

#430

Post by salamandersauce »

wpietri wrote: post #409
thehours wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Generally speaking my personal experiences with Amazon have been good. However, I’ve similarly shifted most of my online purchases elsewhere because (1) I don’t trust the reviews anymore and (2) I don’t trust Amazon’s suppliers. Ironically, my purchases on Amazon these days are almost exclusively books and ebooks.

Same, but for books I've switched to my local bookstore. Mainly because I would like to continue having a local bookstore. Now that I don't have Prime anymore, cost and speed are about the same. I've been meaning to check out alternative ebook vendors too. Anybody have something they like on Android?

I like Kobo out of the big players. Google feels like they could give up anytime. I've also had issues getting downloadable ePubs from them.

If you like SciFi/Fantasy, Baen sells ebooks direct with no DRM on their website in multiple formats and have for like 20 years. Some other publishers do this too like Image comics. Most don't though so you need to go through one of the bigger stores unfortunately.

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