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Humans Could Live up to 150 Years, New Research Suggests

scientificamerican.com

131–140 of 167 posts

Re: Humans Could Live up to 150 Years, New Research Suggests

#131

Has anyone actually read the paper? I have some pretty serious qualms with the topology traversal routes over the DOSI vs age manifold — they seem unfounded. This isn’t inherently problematic, but that seems like a core assumption - that the steepness and thus likelihood of falling off the DOSI associated cliff increases with age. The idea being once you fall off the cliff you die. I don’t think it is a bad hypothesi…

I disagree with the paper because it neglects the possibility of engineered approaches to reverse the mechanisms of ageing

They’d probably argue that this same model works for that - you just update the manifold. That’s probably fair, the model isn't really powered to be predictive just correlative.

It still embeds some of the same problems, though, mainly how an individual actually interacts with it and why their interpretation is correct.

Re: Humans Could Live up to 150 Years, New Research Suggests

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do we even need to colonize space anyways? It's not like overpopulation is going to be a problem anymore, and someday in the future, we'll be able to solve problems like environmental degredation and climate change. There's just not any benefit to exploring space. Besides asteroid mining (which can be done with robots), there's not much up there worth our time, except scientific research.

Could you explain why overpopulation will not be a problem?

Maybe because the world's total fertility rate has been consistently coming down and might soon get lower than the replacement rate. [1]

If this continues, the world population, while still growing due to people living longer, [2] will not grow due to more births anymore. All things being equal, after a while, population would start decreasing.

None of this is necessarily cast in stone: people could start having more children again, or life expectancy could massively drop. But as things are trending right now, population will stabilize relatively soon and then decrease (it's already happening in some countries).

How crowded the Earth needs to be to be considered overpopulated is debatable and a separate question. But if the population does not keep growing there is a path to getting there, assuming the peak population is considered too high.

[1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN

[2] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN

Re: Humans Could Live up to 150 Years, New Research Suggests

#133

While it's cool that many people are doing research on extending human life span, I think it's equally important (if not more) to think about how to enhance the quality of life when people get old. A lot people retire when they are ~60 yo. If they live up to 150 years, that is 90 years of retirement, which is ridiculers. I do wish that people can be "young" for longer. To me, that is more important than just living l…

Longevity research includes not just increasing lifespan, but increasing quality lifespan (i.e. slowing down aging). See Calico [0] as an example.

[0] https://calicolabs.com/publications

Re: Humans Could Live up to 150 Years, New Research Suggests

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's with all the bible quotes around here lately?

Good question. My guess is, since your text is pretty gray, that the downvoter brigade also hit you too. I didnt go to news.somereligion.com . And being biblethumped is not indicative of a good time.

It's interesting to note that people long ago contemplated whether there was some physical limit to longevity, and what number they thought that was. Nobody's attacking you. Calm down.

Re: Humans Could Live up to 150 Years, New Research Suggests

#136
post #2

That's why the fundamental solution to both the ageing problem and space exploration is not biological. Humans are fundamentally adapted to live/reproduce on the oxidizing and wet environment on Earth. Rather than bring out a mini Earth environ each time we go to space, we should start thinking about how we can just bring out our mind. It would be much more sustainable in the long run, maybe even on Earth itself.

Why do we even need to colonize space anyways? It's not like overpopulation is going to be a problem anymore, and someday in the future, we'll be able to solve problems like environmental degredation and climate change. There's just not any benefit to exploring space. Besides asteroid mining (which can be done with robots), there's not much up there worth our time, except scientific research.

Well, first of all I do not consider colonising a place a synonymous with living there. Space offers revolutionary technology that can tangibly affect what happens on Earth. Planets that are substantially smaller than Earth (which is pretty much all the rocky planets in our solar system bar Venus) are far less painful to mine even without getting into the fact that there is (or so we hope) no ecosystem to destroy from our mining practices so it's not just asteroids that are attractive targets for resources. It's not just the lower gravity, it's that smaller bodies tend to have less stratification of geological layers so instead of having nearly all metals concentrated underneath gigapascals of pressure at the core (like on Earth), smaller bodies will have such valuable booty more evenly distributed across the crust. That's not even getting into the abundance of gases like hydrogen and helium that can be scooped from gas giants that are often quite expensive on Earth.

Most heavy industrial processes and power generation have substantial ecological consequences so I envision nearly all of this being taken off world into orbital factories and power collectors. Microwave wireless energy transfer has achieved greater than 80% efficiencies in the lab and solar power collectors in space can achieve a 24/7 operation and park themselves in geosynchronous orbits so a mini dyson swarm around Earth could power the world's economy comfortably and be far more distributed and safe against shutdowns. Manufacturing in microgravity offers unique opportunities and advantages for many processes in industry and the advantages of floating in vacuum cannot be understate for bulk transportation of goods.

There is a trick that exploits the conservation of momentum that allows for very cheap transfer of cargo and people from and to Earth without having to rely on the magically strong materials of space elevators: by having a ring of ferromagnetic material around the Earth that rotates and greater than orbital velocity, you can then have an outer shell around it that is either at rest or moving in the opposite direction (preferably at the rotational speed of the Earth that can be kept suspended from the inner coil via a magnetic field. As long as the net momentum of the inner and outer ring is zero, it will remain stable and now you have a platform that is at rest relative to the ground and from which you can have cable cars running to the ground from without requiring fictional materials. One thing to note is that with these largely stationary (save for counterbalancing against the rotation of the earth) platforms is that you are still experiencing most of the earth's gravity when standing on them. This makes it a good option for long term habitats for baseline humans. Of course, because it has a coil that winds around the entire circumference of the Earth, you can use it to propel one hell of a mass driver for cargo to the point where you could just not bother with chemical rockets altogether and rely on magnetic trains to do most of the heavy lifting into LEO with ion drives or solar sails are for long term maintenance.

This formula works for every planet but it makes the most sense to target Earth because of the highly challenging escape velocity it imposes on our current launch capabilities. This allows you to skip the rocket equation and as a consequence make travel to space genuinely affordable with potentially less than a dollar per kg costs. Once you get to space, travel is actually incredibly easy since you have mostly empty space between you and your target and there is no air resistance to slow you down.

We can also protect the Earth from coronal mass ejections and asteroid strikes and even counteract global warming by dimming the sunlight received from earth by a percent or two. This won't magically turn the clock back on climate change but it would be one hell of a slowdown to allow for other changes in our manufacturing and energy generation processes.

Besides that, extrapolating from very recent trends in population dynamics in "developed" (which is such a relative term anyway) countries that overpopulation is not going to be a problem anymore is absurd. People do on average want to have kids and the real reason why some countries are beginning to go below replacement rates of growth has more to do with the collapse of the middle class and the uncertain economic future of many young adults. Once we have radical life extension technology (something I consider largely inevitable) and people in their late 80's are still as sexually virulent as if they were in their 20's, we are likely to see another population boom within this century. While we could probably continue to house more people past a trillion within Earth, you are going to have to start either living more frugally or damage the ecosystem or at least reduce it's priority.

An Ecumenopolis (planet-wide city) could actually be a very comfortable place to live and house many trillions but it's a process that is inherently destructive to the landscape and life as it is now. You are essentially turning the entire surface (and ideally some or all of the interior) of a planet into a machine - and a lot of that would be necessary once we are talking multiple trillions because at that scale, we have a very different heating problem from the comparatively measly effects of greenhouse gases that are already wrecking havoc on our ecosystems. When you have that much waste heat being generated on a planet, you need to start constructing giant radiators that extend out of the atmosphere on space towers. Once you have such numbers, even if less than a percent of the population have any wish of colonising other worlds, you will have billions of colonists and our entire solar system will be colonised.

There is also the undeniable appeals of claiming territory over a truly virgin land without the evil of colonialism over past natives. That land might be hostile as it is but the opportunity to transform it into an oasis of life is going to become a more and more attractive proposition once have a truly abundant and clean source of energy because matter then becomes the real bottleneck. Land prices on Earth will continue to rise to the point where suburbs in the form of O' Neil Cylinder habitats will become the suburbs and rural area of humanity. Or if we switch to a form of land allocation that does not involve money, we would still commission the construction of rotating habitats to keep the population density of Earth below a amount (what amount that is depends both on your values as a civilisation and the degree of verticality of your settlements.

Re: Humans Could Live up to 150 Years, New Research Suggests

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference between African Savanna and other places on Earth is minuscule compared to the difference between Earth and Space. Oxygen, Temperature where water is liquid or barely frozen (water is basically rock at -200), Pressurized Environment, abundance of organic material for ingestion. That's true for most of inhabited locations on Earth. I'm not strongly attached to my meat vessel, I think my consciousness de…

Well, living in space proper (zero gravity) probably won't be a mass thing. We will only cross space without living in it, just like we do with the ocean. But the possibility of terraforming planets or moons cannot be ruled out in the future. We are quite capable of altering environment, actually, even to our detriment (climate change). Maybe we can do it better on Mars or Titan.

Instead of making everywhere more like Earth, how about making ourselves more adaptable to everywhere?

Re: Humans Could Live up to 150 Years, New Research Suggests

#138

While it's cool that many people are doing research on extending human life span, I think it's equally important (if not more) to think about how to enhance the quality of life when people get old. A lot people retire when they are ~60 yo. If they live up to 150 years, that is 90 years of retirement, which is ridiculers. I do wish that people can be "young" for longer. To me, that is more important than just living l…

The cynical part of me wants to sarcastically respond "Yeah, let's make sure everyone can contribute 120 years to making corporations richer instead of just 60 years!"

With that said, I do think you have a point--spending ~90 years in a nursing home because you're unable to take care of yourself sounds like a miserable existence straight out of a dystopian novel.

Re: Humans Could Live up to 150 Years, New Research Suggests

#139
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We really haven’t made an effort to study aging. We haven't? Just 2 seconds of googling "study aging" brings up results from places like Harvard, the NIH, RAND and hundreds of other universities where people study aging all day everyday.

Indeed. Geriatric medicine has been a thing for millennia. [1] I worked at the UW Alzheimer's Disease Research Center in Seattle for several years in the 1980s. Research on aging was a major topic. The minimal progress on cures for Alzheimer's since that time should be sobering to anyone claiming that we can hack humans to extend lifespan significantly. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geriatrics

I don't feel there is any theoretical reason why humans could not live forever. Biology has already solved this problem in some organisms. Whether we are capable of solving it is a different question. But I think it's certain that it's possible for humans to become biologically immortal.

Re: Humans Could Live up to 150 Years, New Research Suggests

#140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I seriously feel pissed about all the wonders of the future I'll never get to witness. All the things the human race is going to do. All the places it will go. Of course, that's assuming our species doesn't suffer a biotech apocalypse before then.

But also think about how jealous future generations are going to be of us, born in space, never being able to walk on a beach, always having to worry about their space station’s life support systems failing.

Grass is always greener... Beside they can easily walk on a beach with the Valve Index 3000.
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