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How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

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Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#41

Post by branko_d »

coddle-hark wrote: post #23
branko_d wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are great benefits for the society, and dare I say species. Conscience, after all, is not an accident. Its a product of our evolution. We lived in small groups for most of our existence, and the very survival of the group was tied pretty directly to how well the group members worked together. Lying had consequences for a group that would not make lying have consequences for an individual. The problems is that w…

> Conscience, after all, is not an accident. Its a product of our evolution. We lived in small groups for most of our existence, and the very survival of the group was tied pretty directly to how well the group members worked together. Lying had consequences for a group that would not make lying have consequences for an individual. Be careful making assumptions like this. I mean, you're right, having a conscience is…

It's a balance between the (evolutionary) advantage for of the group vs the advantage for the individual. Some lying may be beneficial for the individual as long as it doesn't harm the group too much. Lie too much though, and the group gets less likely to survive as a whole, meaning individuals within the group are less likely to survive as well.

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#42

Post by Agentlien »

jokethrowaway wrote: post #17

I'm not going to invest 40m watching the new video because I couldn't care less - but Dream hired a statistician to debunk the numbers in the first video. I can believe he's cheating but I don't consider it probable. Dream's success doesn't come from record settings, so I don't think he has any incentive to cheat. If anything, I believe more the allegations that his manhunt videos are staged, given that's the interes…

> Dream hired a statistician to debunk the numbers in the first video.

This is addressed in the video. The report from the anonymous statistician hired by Dream does not actually dispute the incredibly low odds.

I've never heard of Dream before and I have no horse in this race. But the probability of this actually having happened by chance on an unmodded set of runs is so low I cannot believe it. At the same time, the someone who has made a career out of running Minecraft with mods having a great run of luck with the help of mods and then claiming that it was fair does not seem very unlikely.

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#43

Post by [deleted] »

jokethrowaway wrote: post #30
chmod775 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm not going to invest 40m watching the new video because I couldn't care less Going by the rest of your comment, you would've learned something.

As I mentioned, I can very well believe he's cheating, I don't need to be convinced. I can tick the box in my head which says dream is cheating - but it's not a smart move from where is standing.

[deleted]

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#44

Post by afarviral »

A few hot takes of mine: - Something small is throwing off someone's calculations ... Perhaps some small fact about the RNGs that is not common knowledge - I'm a 31 year old and followed the events and was thoroughly on Dreams side, and accepted his (handwavey despite hiring a math person) explanation, mostly on character and verisimilitude - The consensus of most people seems to be that he cheated and is a convincing liar, sort of a magician in a way - The fact his cheating is the crowd consensus among adults made me question my initial beliefs - I don't have time to go down the rabithole but I also don't really care if he cheated as his achievments as an entertainer stand alone. If he did cheat, he's just loveable scum

In summary... He cheated?

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#45

Post by bryanrasmussen »

smogcutter wrote: post #19
bryanrasmussen wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

our society is also not structured anymore to allowing one to admit guilt, and be absolved by some sort of community process after which you can return to a normal life; if you are guilty now you are forever cursed.

When was it structured that way? Serious question - I generally believe the same thing, but looking at it from the outside I’m finding it hard to reach a worthwhile example.

As chaorace above you suggested, it was so structured by the arrival of the technology to keep track of everything you ever did that was bad and put it online for future reference.

The tendency to do it was already in place, it is likely that you see someone from high school that was a jerk and you think that jerk once did this, even if it was 15 years ago. That's a sort of normal human tendency.

Some people are so notorious for rather innocuous things that they are outcast - Monica Lewinsky is an obvious example - I believe she was ostracized for a little more than a decade.

Legally there is already the habit of judging people unfit for crimes, even if they have served their time. American society is structured to make people with felony convictions harder to employ.

Now add in technology and imagine being able to treat anyone you have never met like that jerk in High School forever.

The final step of structuring is then provided by people who can see ways to profit off of the fact that people who have done non felonious things might still have done things that society will find objectionable, and that the technology exists to keep this in people's eyes.

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#46

Post by olivierva »

Why not share the seed of the map? This in combination with the coordinates visible on screen would make it possible to check if there is cheating involved. It would be even better if the seed was generated and handed out by a trusted party. Do all the speed runs live and it would be quite hard to cheat.

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#48

Post by ORioN63 »

olivierva wrote: post #46

Why not share the seed of the map? This in combination with the coordinates visible on screen would make it possible to check if there is cheating involved. It would be even better if the seed was generated and handed out by a trusted party. Do all the speed runs live and it would be quite hard to cheat.

No, it wouldn't. He is accused of cheated by messing the probabilities of Blaze drops and Piglin trading.

The map seed is not related to either.

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#49

Post by njibhu »

olivierva wrote: post #46

Why not share the seed of the map? This in combination with the coordinates visible on screen would make it possible to check if there is cheating involved. It would be even better if the seed was generated and handed out by a trusted party. Do all the speed runs live and it would be quite hard to cheat.

Loot rates are not related to the world seed. The problem here was that he modified loot rate tables. The world seed only matters for the world generation.

Re: How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?

#50

Post by faeriechangling »

afarviral wrote: post #44

A few hot takes of mine: - Something small is throwing off someone's calculations ... Perhaps some small fact about the RNGs that is not common knowledge - I'm a 31 year old and followed the events and was thoroughly on Dreams side, and accepted his (handwavey despite hiring a math person) explanation, mostly on character and verisimilitude - The consensus of most people seems to be that he cheated and is a convincin…

Lets put it this way. The RNG in Dream's version of Minecraft was acting so astronomically far outside of the norm, that we can't consider Dream's world record run as being valid. He was essentially playing a different game, and it would be absurd to give somebody a world record for the good fortune of playing on a busted version of Minecraft. The linked video is a response to the anonymous statistician associated with Dream.

Now, I think there's one explanation that's more likely than others as to how Dream ended up playing on a rigged version of Minecraft.

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